Friday, February 14, 2014

UKIP Beat Tories to Second in Wythenshawe

The Guy Newsroom is celebrating last night’s by-election result after wagering a four-figure sum on UKIP coming second. The result was never in doubt and Mike “I’m perfectly happy Ed Miliband is leader” Kane is Labour’s new MP.

Labour: 13,261, 55.34% (+11.21%)

UKIP: 4,301, 17.95% (+14.51%)

Conservative: 3,479, 14.52% (-11.03%)

Liberal Democrat: 1,176, 4.91% (-17.44%)

The Lib Dems lost their deposit for the eighth time since 2010…

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Contrary to Reports, UKIP Still On Course for Second

UKIP are having a tougher time than they expected in the Manchester by-election today, compared to their breakthrough in places like Rotherham. On the back of the latest polls, full expectation management seems to have finally kicked in and the narrative is about being neck and neck for third with the Tories. Meanwhile friends of Nigel Farage are a little more bullish, predicting they will come second with 18% of the vote. The LibDems might lose their deposit… 

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Farage Accuses Labour of “Intimidatory” Tactics
Complains to Electoral Commission Over Battle for Wythenshawe

UKIP’s battle to challenge Labour in Wythenshawe and Sale East is turning nasty. Farage has written to Jenny Watson, chair of the Electoral Commission, complaining that the current system of postal voting is biased in favour of UKIP’s opponents. He argues:

“I do not think democracy is being well served and fear that the voting process is now actually undermining the ability of constituents to hear and weigh-up the alternatives being offered in a considered fashion.

The problem is most acute when it comes to parliamentary by-elections. Our recent experience is that where the Labour Party is responsible for moving the writ, it has taken to condensing a campaign into the shortest legally-permitted time frame.

This means postal votes arrive in households within a few days of candidates being selected – often well before the mid-point in a campaign. In our experience people, for their own convenience, fill out and send off their postal votes swiftly…

So in practice in by-elections up to half the total turnout may have already voted by the halfway point in a campaign.

That cannot be healthy for democracy. Clearly it is also a development that biases the outcome in favour of the incumbent rather than parties, such as my own, that seek to place fresh alternatives before the electorate.”

He is also unhappy about electoral fraud and “intimidatory” tactics used by Labour doorsteppers.

“Very recently concerns have also been expressed to me about the work of an organisation called the Trade Union and Labour Party Liaison Organisation which has allegedly been transferring the addresses of postal vote applicants that trade unions have processed directly onto the Labour Party computer system.

I am also hugely concerned about the growing practice whereby canvassers representing the Labour Party arrive on doorsteps a very short time after the delivery of postal votes, offering to collect them. Such actions in my view can only be construed as mildly intimidatory, especially where the voters concerned are from vulnerable groups.”

One week to go…

Monday, January 20, 2014

Labour Opt for Snap By-Election – Feb 13

Labour are clearly worried about the UKIP surges in recent by-elections – they have opted for snap poll in Wythenshawe and Sale East after the death of the well liked Labour MP Paul Goggins. The polling day of February 13 gives the parties just over three weeks to try dent the notionally safe Labour majority. After UKIP put the frighteners on in Rotherham and Eastleigh, it will be interesting to see what momentum they can pick up in such a short period of time.

Labour are defending a majority of 7,575:

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

UKIP will be wanting that second place…

Graph via UK Polling Report.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Manchester By-Election: The Numbers

Sadly Labour MP Paul Goggins has died. The former Home Office Minister’s held the safe-Labour Manchester seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East with a majority of 7,575:

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10412 (25.6%)
Labour: 17987 (44.1%)
Lib Dem: 9107 (22.3%)
BNP: 1572 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1405 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 7575 (18.6%)

UKIP will be wanting that second place…

Graph via UK Polling Report.

Friday, May 3, 2013

David Miliband Back in South Shields

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Awkward Ed Miliband By-Election Moments

Ed’s been out on the campaign trail in South Shields today. A gem from the PA write up of his day up north:

“Mr Miliband was greeted by Labour supporters as he arrived by Metro in the town and spoke to various members of the public as he walked along the high street.

Occasionally correcting people who called him David, he asked them what the issues were in South Shields.”

One Miliband was probably enough…

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

UKIP Bullish Over South Shields Second Place

The maths does not look great for anyone except Labour in the rotten borough of South Shields, but then that’s what was said about Rotherham where UKIP managed to come second last year. A spokesman for the party was boisterous about their chances in the seat.

“UKIP expect the momentum that has been gathering over the past year to become apparent in South Shields, where we will be selecting a candidate who will work hard to highlight how the ordinary people of South Shields have been let down by the old three parties and Labour in particular. Those who want to send a message to both front beches know the best way to do it, and that is to vote UKIP.”

Sources in the party are hopeful of a second place: “it is well within our grasp”And the bookies agree…

UPDATE: Keep an eye on John Tennant’s  website. He works for UKIP MEP Derek Clark and fancies his chances as the candidate:

Comrade Kev for South Shields #KM4SS

There is one obvious candidate already being punted to replace David Miliband in South Shields:

A strong local born candidate, loyal to the party and an excellent media performer. It’s time for Kevin Maguire to make his love of Labour official and throw his hat in the ring. It would mean taking a pretty hefty pay cut mind though…

UPDATE: 

UPDATE II: Adam Boulton has tipped our Kev live on Sky News: “He may be a metropolitan trendy these days, but he is a local boy born and bred.” Big Kev has the big mo.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Eastleigh’s Losing Maria Led Away in Silence


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