Corbyn: ‘Well Done Our SNPs’

His allies have been talking up a “progressive alliance” but “our SNP” may be a bit much for Scottish Labour. Pressure is getting to him…

Cat Smith’s Comical Ali Moment

Top Corbynista Cat Smith tells ITV why Labour’s performance in Copeland was still an “incredible achievement”. Of all the things said by Labour politicians today, surely the most ridiculous…

Politically Weaponised NHS Has Been Disarmed

Ed Miliband wanted to weaponise the NHS to defeat the Tories. For half-a-century Labour has used the natural Tory reluctance to pour unlimited amounts of money into the NHS as a means of scaring voters into their camp. David Cameron decided in opposition that it was time for the Tories to embrace the NHS as fervently as the voters; this was a key part of his modernisation agenda. Jeremy Hunt has been tasked with getting value for all the money, not saving money.

In the last 20 years the public’s satisfaction level with the NHS has risen from around 40% to 60%. More importantly, dissatisfaction has halved from 40% to 20%. This gives the public an NHS net satisfaction level of 40%. Three times as many people are satisfied with the NHS as are dissatisfied. Labour can argue that the improvement happened on their watch, the fact of the satisfaction however is ongoing, this presents a strategic problem for Labour. By the time of the 2015 general election Cameron was more trusted than Miliband on the NHS by 22% to 20%. Survation (and other pollsters) find May is more trusted than Corbyn by 35% to 24%, Corbyn is actually distrusted on the NHS by 45% to 31%. The NHS is now a negative for the Labour leader.

Last week Labour sent out leaflets claiming “babies will die” if Copeland votes Tory, testing the the old Labour fear-mongering NHS claims to destruction. In fact, their opponents now throw the Mid-Staffs scandal and poorly negotiated PFI contracts back in their face when they focus on the NHS. Voters don’t believe Labour’s scares any more, the NHS has been disarmed as a political weapon…

Corbyn: I’m Not the Problem

ITV’s Chris Ship asks Jez “Have you at any point this morning looked in the mirror and asked yourself, could the problem actually be me?” Corbyn’s reply: “No. Thank you for your question.”

Momentum: ‘We Proved Them Wrong… This Shows We Can Win Across the Country’

Hilarious email sent by Momentum to their supporters this morning under the subject line: “We proved them wrong”.

“The sceptics wrote us off in Stoke but we proved them wrong. We beat them with our energy, passion and determination.

The Tories may have taken Copeland, but I’ve seen everything we need to win across the country right here in Stoke these last few weeks.

If we build on the momentum from this win, we can beat UKIP and the Tories across the country.”

What are they smoking?

Mason: Labour Needs Younger Leadership Team By 2020

Paul Mason, who last year was recorded admitting “Corbyn doesn’t appeal to the mainstream working class vote”, is at pains to say he doesn’t think Corbyn should resign. Immediately…

“by 2020 we need a younger leadership team that unites the left and centre-left around a clear and radical socialist programme… On the left in Britain we need to find a way for the left and centre left to co-exist within the same Labour team, to respect each other’s ideologies and combine their strengths… Corbyn’s lasting legacy should be to build all that…”

Owen Jones has reached tipping point:

Mason and Jones are both close to Clive Lewis…

By-Election Scenarios and Permutations

It is wet and windy up in Stoke and Copeland and by 4 a.m. on Friday morning one of several possible scenarios will be playing out. Guido takes you through your by-election scenarios…

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Labour win, UKIP second, Tories third

If Gareth Snell holds Stoke for Labour then the man who once called Jeremy Corbyn an “IRA supporting friend of Hamas” will, ironically, have helped save Jez. He will have won a seat that has always been safely Labour. Defeat will see Paul Nuttall face criticism from UKIP’s Faragists – remember Farage last week piled on the pressure by saying Nuttall had to win. Jez will be safe…

Labour win, Tories second, UKIP third

If the Tories come ahead of UKIP then the Faragists will actively move against a humiliated Nuttall. Hillsborough, rightly or wrongly, will have damaged him beyond repair. UKIP could have their sixth change of leader in under two years.

UKIP win

Should Labour lose to UKIP, the PLP will be mutinous. Corbyn’s office will blame Tony Blair’s Brexit speech, accusing him of a deliberate act of sabotage. Corbyn will face huge pressure from the left to hand over to Rebecca Long-Bailey or Clive Lewis. Moderates will demand his resignation and discuss another leadership challenge. UKIP will have its second MP, Nuttall becoming a loud Brexiter in the Commons and a credible new voice for working class voters. UKIP will be on the verge of a mainstream tipping point…

Tories win

Should the Tories come from nowhere to win, Corbyn could be toast. The realisation of a Tory one party state and a Scotland-style wipeout of Labour across England will dawn on the Corbynistas. Even Jezza’s closest allies will tell him his time is up. 25 year-old Jack Brereton will be the youngest Tory MP.

Copeland

Tories win

Tory victory in Copeland means Corbyn will face renewed calls to quit from Labour moderates. Owen Jones types will air further doubts about the Corbyn project. Eyes will be on Long-Bailey and Lewis. There will be talk of a summer leadership challenge. Corbyn’s views on the nuclear industry will have been key. Theresa May’s approach to Brexit will be emboldened. A Tory win is already priced in, this will not be a shock to SW1…

Labour win

Labour victory against the odds means Corbyn is safe, or safer if Labour has lost Stoke. Fighting dirty on the NHS will have worked. Talk of a Tory takeover of Northern seats will be deemed premature. An ardent Remainer will have won in a big Leave constituency. May’s awkward visit, in which she failed to answer questions on local NHS services, will be a major embarrassment for Number 10.

UKIP win

You are kidding.

Stay with Guido for coverage during the day and through the night…

Mosley Gives Watson Half a Million

Max Mosley has given Tom Watson another £300,000, meaning Labour’s deputy leader has accepted £500,000 in donations from Max in the last eight months. Imagine what Labour would say if a Cabinet minister had taken half a million quid from a former black-shirt who once punched a policeman in the face at a fascist rally…

Snell Sexism Cuts Through to Stoke Voters

Gareth Snell’s sexist comments about women, first uncovered by Guido, have cut through to Stoke voters according to a focus group carried out by BritainThinks for the Guardian:

“He’s the one who says negative comments about women on TV and doesn’t like Janet Street-Porter,” said garage-owner Jamie, 48, when the group was shown a photo of Snell. (Snell described Porter as a “polished turd”.) “You can’t make flippant sexist comments and not have some sort of backlash from it,” said Lisa, a 38-year-old student.

Only three out of ten Stoke residents who voted Labour in 2015 told the focus group they would definitely do so again this week. Feelings towards Theresa May were “generally positive”, while Paul Nuttall was the candidate they most wanted to go for a pint with. If this is replicated across the constituency, Stoke is in play…

New McDonnell Video Piques Interest

This new John McDonnell campaign video has been noted in Labour circles. Two minutes of McDonnell delivering decent, punchy attack lines on UKIP and a succinct up-sum of Labour’s offer. Better production values than usual for a bog-standard MP’s by-election video, clearly filmed and edited by someone who knows what they’re doing. And – most intriguingly – no mention of Gareth Snell’s name whatsoever. A Labour insider comments:

“Just goes to show that the only election Old McDonnell cares about is the one against Clive Lewis and Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2018.”

Certainly more professional than the by-election offerings from other top Corbynistas…

“Non-Party Political” Copeland Hospital Campaigner is Tory-Hating Labour Activist

A Copeland “hospital campaigner” claiming to be non-party political can be revealed as a Labour member who wished death upon David Cameron. Siobhan Gearing has been kicking up a fuss about services at West Cumberland Hospital, teaming up with Labour MPs to criticise the government. She has been described in the local press as just an ordinary “local resident” and “mother of two”. Gearing has herself said of her campaign: “This is not about party politics”. Except that just isn’t true, is it Siobhan…

Firstly, Siobhan Gearing is a paid-up member of Copeland Labour Party, something neither she, Copeland Labour nor the local press have mentioned.

Second, she has some views of Tory politicians which one might describe as partisan. Such as that David Cameron is a “w*nker” who should be killed.

Impressive that Copeland Labour have managed to spin that this membership card-carrying crank is just an ordinary non-partisan local mum…

Top Momentum Fixer: Give Up On Parliamentary Socialism

A fascinating insight into the minds of the hard-left from Momentum fixer Max Shanly, protégé of Jon Lansman. Asked why Corbyn should remain as leader if he cannot win an election, Shanly opined:

“You’ve fallen into the trap of Parliamentary Socialism. We were never going to win in 2020 regardless of leader. Anyone with more than two brain cells should have drawn that conclusion from the exit poll in 2015. The democratic road to socialism is not the same as the parliamentary road.”

There you have it from an avowed Corbynista. Labour aren’t going to win a general election under Corbyn so they shouldn’t bother going down the parliamentary road…

Labour Arguing About Using England Flag on Leaflets

The Corbyn project’s problem in one tweet. Labour use the St George’s cross on a leaflet in Stoke and top Corbynista cheerleader Ava Vidal takes offence. Her timeline is now full of Labour members arguing about whether the English flag is a good or bad thing. Emily Thornberry wasn’t a one-off…

UPDATE: Top Corbyn campaigner Sam Tarry criticises Vidal:

“I have to say this is ridiculous – I went campaigning in Stoke wearing my England shirt. Surely patriotism can be inclusive and progressive?”

Snell: I’ve Apologised to My Wife, My Daughter and My Grandmother

Labour’s Stoke candidate Gareth Snell apologises to all the women in his family following Guido’s stories

Labour Double Down on “Babies Will Die” Attack

Last week Labour sent out leaflets claiming “babies will die” if Copeland votes Tory, today they have ramped it up a notch with the slightly unhinged poster above. Not the sort of campaigning you’d expect from a party on course for victory…

Clive Lewis’ Comrades Twist Knife Into Corbyn

Owen Jones is a close comrade of Clive Lewis, there are even reports Owen has been sounding out Labour MPs about whether they’d back Clive as a future leader. Ellie Mae O’Hagan is a Guardian colleague of Jones and is also a big Clive Lewis fan – she has repeatedly praised Lewis as a “rising star in the Labour Party” and gave him a softball interview alongside Owen. Interesting that both Owen and Ellie Mae are twisting the knife into Corbyn tonight:

Fair to say these tweets from two high profile former Corbynistas, who backed Jez for the leadership, have gone down like a cup of sick with Labour moderates…

Sham-pagne Socialist

Via the EyeSpy.MP Twitter account, Shami reportedly on the fizz this afternoon as her colleagues in the Lords begin their Brexit debate…

Labour’s Copeland Candidate: 3 Days to Save the NHS

You know Labour are in trouble when they wheel out this tired line. Asked for her message to voters in Copeland, Labour’s candidate Gillian Troughton replied: “Three days to save the NHS in West Cumbria”. Borrowing from Andy Burnham’s famous 2011 fib that there were “72 hours to save the NHS”. And the Mirror’s 2015 claim that there were “100 hours to save the NHS”. Or Len McCluskey’s warning in 2012 that “we have just 13 days to save the NHS”. It is true there is a debate about the status of maternity services at West Cumberland hospital. What isn’t under threat is the NHS itself. Assume this will feature in Labour’s fake news inquiry…

“Tory Cuts Killed 30,000” Report Author is Big Corbynista

Today’s Mirror splashes on the OTT claim that “Tory cuts killed 30,000“, casually accusing the government of mass murder. The story is based on a report co-authored by Oxford geography professor Danny Dorling. What the Mirror doesn’t mention is that Dorling a big Corbyn cheerleader with ties to Jez. In a blog post last May, Dorling fawned over Corbyn, showering the Labour leader with a litany of praise:

“Corbyn appears prepared to listen to everyone’s point of view, however much he disagrees with much of what they do or say…

“(Corbyn) appears prepared to listen to a wide range of experts and opinion rather than giving the air that he was born to rule, is all-knowing himself, and will tell us what is best for us…

“If voters look him up on Wikipedia they will learn that “Corbyn was revealed to have submitted the smallest amount in expenses of any British MP. In 2010 he claimed the lowest sum of all 650 MPs.” He also over pays his taxes…

“Famously Jeremy Corbyn had to be persuaded to stand in the leadership election. His election may have ushered in a new era in British politics where parties no longer look so keenly on the candidates who so obviously want the job and who initially appear most electable…

“Jeremy Corbyn does not appear motived (sic) by money…

“Corbyn has shown that he can be critical of his own party and its past record, even of himself, when, in retrospect, his party or he himself was clearly misguided…

“Jeremy Corbyn can take on the zealots and bigots who use migration to stir up fear and hatred…

“What Corbyn really represents is a set of beliefs whose time has finally come.

Corbyn himself has even rewarded Dorling’s obvious affection with a supportive tweets:

John McDonnell meanwhile has said he spent the last summer reading Dorling’s book. Sure Dorling is a wholly impartial observer – you might think the Mirror would have mentioned all this in their report…

Blundering Burgon’s Blair Banker Bashing Backfires Badly

Top Corbynista Richard Burgon went after Blair this morning by blasting him for speaking at Bloomberg, in his words the “heart of banking”.

A reasonable point which could only backfire if, say, Jeremy Corbyn had also recently given a speech at Bloomberg.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Michael Crick on Safe Seats:

“In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats.”

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