The Telegraph splash this morning will make glum reading for the Tories as the most detailed survey in five years from YouGov shows the Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout as big as their defeat in 1997, when Tony Blair entered Downing Street. The survey of 14,000 people put the Tories retaining just 169 seats, while Labour take 385, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority. A huge swing from just 5 years ago when Boris won an 80-seat majority.
Along with more than half the Tory seats won in 2019, eleven cabinet ministers, including Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt, are expected to lose their seats. Lord Frost wrote in The Telegraph that the “stunningly awful” results are thanks to dissatisfaction on policy, above all, immigration rather than Labour popularity. Rishi will be hoping he can finally get flights off the ground to Rwanda soon, though even if that does happen, it’ll likely not be enough…
According to YouGov, three-quarters of the voters who have left the Tories are Leave voters, with Reform UK drawing millions of voters from the Conservatives, costing the Tories 96 seats, and helping Labour take the keys to Number 10 – without even winning a seat. The former Brexit party will attract both those traditional Tory voters and the Brexit voters who switched from Labour to Conservative in 2019 in order to “Get Brexit Done“. This is what happens when you have a government and Number 10 full of Remainers.
The Centre for Policy Studies is celebrating its 50th anniversary today with a fresh bout of policy projects to see free marketeers into the new year. Lord Frost is joining the ranks to lead a “major policy project” styled after “Stepping Stones”, the Thatcherite 10-commandment report that shaped free market policies in the 80s. Guido seems to remember Frost doing the exact same thing for Policy Exchange last year…
Meanwhile former No. 10 housing guru Alex Morton is rejoining the CPS as a research fellow after a brief stint at the IEA. The centre-right think tanks are gearing up for the coming Tory wars…
Guido understands that the shortlist for IEA Director General, one of the biggest jobs in Westminster wonk-land, is down to five. In no particular order:
- Kate Andrews
- Tom Clougherty
- Victoria Hewson
- Lord Frost
- John O’Connell
Matt Sinclair dropped out to take a senior position at the Computer & Communications Industry Association. A strong field to succeed Mark Littlewood…
Now that Lord Frost has finally confirmed he’s applied to be a Tory MP, the SW1 rumour mill is spinning over which constituency he’s set to contest. His official statement over the weekend gave no clues:
“I am grateful to the Party authorities for accepting my application as a potential Conservative candidate for the House of Commons, the centre of our national political life. I have not yet applied for any seat and am considering my next steps. Meanwhile I look forward to campaigning for the Party and for conservative principles in the months to come.”
There had been talk over the last few days that he’s being lined up to challenge Andrew Bridgen for North West Leicestershire, now that Bridgen has jumped ship to Reclaim and left an opening for the Tory candidacy – a rumour based on him apparently having some local link to the region. Guido hears Team Frost are strongly denying this rumour this morning and sticking to the line that he is still merely “considering next steps“. Mid Derbyshire is another mooted option, with Tory incumbent Pauline Latham standing down at the next election. Even without a confirmed candidate, the Tories are still set to hold both seats according to UK Polling Report…
