With so much of the core Tory vote coming from Leave supporters, these numbers are more cause for concern. Back in April, Theresa May had a net approval rating of +10 with Leave voters. Now it is -23. If that even starts to replicate itself across the Tory party at an election, MPs are losing their seats…
Horrendous numbers for the Tories and Theresa May via YouGov as the public rejects her Chequers deal. May and the Tories lose badly on every metric, as voters back DD and Boris’ decision to quit. Remainers / Soft Brexiters and Number 10 had hoped the public weren’t following the detail. They aren’t fools.
“Don’t Know” is now pulling ahead of Theresa May with Jeremy Corbyn still third in a two-horse race. Voters know they are between the red devil and a deep blue sell-out…
Over 14,000 Guido readers have voted in our Twitter poll over the last 24 hours. A resounding 87% of them have delivered a crushing verdict rejecting Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Just 13% voted in support. It is clear that readers of this website, many of whom will be the sorts of Leave voters that Tory MPs need to keep their seats, think it’s a turd…
A survey by ConservativeHome of 1,225 Tory members has found that 61% of them, three in five, think the government’s proposal would be a bad deal for Britain. Just 31% think it is a good deal. Guido cannot help but wonder if Michael Gove and Sajid Javid, in selling out and backing the deal, have sealed their fates in terms of their leadership ambitions.
The Tories have lost their overall poll lead with YouGov this week. They are now level with Corbyn’s Labour on 39%. 14% say May’s plan is good for Britain, 33% say it is bad. More people think it does not respect the referendum result than think it does. 18% think the government is doing well at negotiating Brexit, 66% think it is doing badly.
Guido readers, Tory members and voters all agree – May’s deal is bad for Britain…
In the space of just nine months the number of Leave-backing Tories with confidence in Theresa May has fallen to barely half (52%). The much fewer Remain backing Tories who have confidence is stable (78%). The number of normally loyal Leave-backing Tories who want her to go immediately has jumped from 6% to 25%. Incidentally, these figures correlate quite well with the ConservativeHome readers panel numbers. Dangerous times for Theresa…
Tories down 3 points to 38%, Labour up 2 to 40%. This will not reassure those Tory MPs worried May’s sellout will lose them their seats…
Pollsters ComRes have asked 151 MPs for their favourite news sources. Radio 4 is the most popular daily news source which will please the Today Programme, The Times with its strong comment section is the most popular online newspaper, The Standard is the most popular dead tree news source – well it is free. Guido by far the most popular political site, Brillo the most popular interview and the acerbic Quentin Letts the most popular hack.
The questions were unprompted, meaning MPs had to name their favourites. The results in our category were stunning, confirming our continuing dominance of digital political news for the people who actually run the country.
We never forget that it is our readers who our are best sources. You make this site and… you’re either in front of Guido, or behind…
Download the full ComRes report: “Where MPs get their news July 2018“
A well-timed reminder of the consequences for Tory rebels backing Dominic Grieve’s threat to “collapse the government”. BMG has Labour three points in front this morning:
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+2)
CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)via @BMGResearch, 05 – 08 Jun
Chgs. w/ 04 May— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 20, 2018
Guido has averaged out the Tory poll lead over the last two months (via UK Polling Report) – it is around 2%, well within the margin of error. If Tory Remainers defeat May today that could mean the end of her premiership and possibly a general election. Which Tory MPs want to join Grieve and Soubry in risking Prime Minister Corbyn?
A poll from Lord Ashcroft reveals that Leave voters would rather lose Northern Ireland than give up the benefits of Brexit. 63% of Leavers would rather leave the EU than keep the UK together. 73% of Tory Leavers agree, as well as half of Labour Leavers. Guido suspects that number would rise further among English Conservatives…
Ashcroft also asked GB voters what they would think if Northern Ireland left the UK. More than six in ten said they wouldn’t mind either way, including a clear majority of Tory and Labour voters. Theresa May has prioritised the union and no hard border over making the most of Brexit, and has been totally hamstrung in the negotiations as a result. It would appear the public don’t agree with that strategy…
A new poll from BMG for Change Britain finds that an overwhelming majority of voters – and clear majorities of Remain and Labour voters – say Britain must be completely free to strike its own trade deals after Brexit. 71% of voters agreed that we must be free to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries without involvement of the EU. Which means, Theresa and Jezza, not being part of any form of customs union.
Keir Starmer should take note, as 64% of Labour voters demanded the freedom to strike new trade deals. 60% of Remain voters agreed. Starmer has never managed to explain his unicorn policy of getting the EU to let us join a customs union that also allows us to strike our own free trade deals with other countries. This poll is effectively a resounding rejection of Labour’s customs union policy by Labour voters.
A majority of Remain voters also agreed that Brexit meant taking back control of trade policy, and 58% of Remainers said the referendum result must be respected. Both Number 10 and Starmer should take note – even Remainers want Brexit done properly…
May is level on best PM with ‘don’t know’ according to figures from the latest YouGov polling released today:
May 37 (-1)
Don’t know 37 (+2)
Corbyn 24 (-3)
Corbyn still third in a two-horse race. Just about sums it up.
UPDATE: Good numbers for the Tories though, and dire for Labour. Despite Brexit?
estminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)via @YouGov, 04 – 05 Jun
Chgs w/ 29 May— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 8, 2018
It seems ridiculous in the twenty-first century to still have an unelected Lords. Most of the public want reform and by more than 2 to 1 have a negative view of the Lords. Rightly so given they are trying their damnedest to frustrate the democratic choicce of 17 million voters.
There are also far too many Lords. A second chamber to revise legislation is not inherently a bad idea. Guido has always been attracted to the Athenian idea of election by lot. Choosing random people for the legislature can’t be any worse than having legislators who are time-servers…
As Labour polling numbers drop back, Corbyn’s leadership credentials are even worse. In what is effectively a two-horse race, he is running third* to “None of the Above”.
*Hat-Tip: Oliver Kamm
Mike Smithson notes that Corbyn’s lead with young voters has evaporated since the turn of the year. For the first time since the election with Opinium, May now leads with 18-34 year olds. So much for the Youthquake?
The pollster Ian Warren has spotted some interesting movement in today’s YouGov poll: the Tories now lead Labour 43-40 among working class C2DE voters. As recently as January Labour had a lead among C2DE voters of 46-35. That’s a huge reversal in five months, and it echoes the trend from the local elections. A reminder for Theresa May what working class voters think of Corbyn’s customs union betrayal?
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 38% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)via @YouGov, 08 – 09 May
Chgs. w/ 01 May— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 10, 2018
The Tories extend their lead over Labour to five points with YouGov – this is the fourth poll in a row showing a four or five point Tory lead.
May’s personal ratings are also up against Corbyn. 39% choose May as best PM, up two points, just 25% choose Corbyn, down two points. May’s lead over Corbyn is up four points to 14. Corbyn and Labour are taking a battering over Russia and anti-Semitism…
London local election voting intention:
LAB: 51% (-3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-)— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2018
Labour set for a very good night next week according to this Queen Mary University poll, on course for the best performance of any party in London locals since 1971, and they would take Barnet. Going to be a long night for Theresa May…
When Guido saw the i splash on a new poll claiming a majority now back single market membership, he foolishly assumed it was a real poll conducted by a polling company that meets the basic British Polling Council rules. Turns out it was an online survey of readers of Johnston Press, Trinity Mirror and Newsquest websites, with no methodology, tables or demographics published. Anthony Wells from YouGov and UK Polling Report is justifiably damning:
Anyway, back to the i/Mirror “survey”. As far as I can tell, this was conducted by putting up questions on the websites of the national and local newspapers they own
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018
People were prevented from voting more than once, but that only addresses one source of potential bias in a sample. You’re still only going to get the sort of people who view newspaper websites, which will have its own skews.
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018
A proper poll needs to collect demographics like age, gender, class, education (and for subjects like this, things like past vote & EU ref vote), allowing the sample to be weighted to ensure the correct proportions, to make it representative of the British public.
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018
Polls from members of the BPC need to report all these things (if you look at the tables on pollsters websites, all those demographics will be listed – across the tops of the tables, or down at the end of the surveys).
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018
Without that data, without being able to see if the sample is representative, or heavily skewed by demographics or attitude, a survey shouldn’t be taken as a meaningful measure of what the wider public think.
— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018
The i has actually splashed on their own online survey as if it is a real poll, when in reality it isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. The Mirror at least buried this guff on page 12. How is a survey of readers of three news groups’ websites possibly representative? Total amateur hour masquerading as news…
Patrick Stewart told Marr yesterday today that Star Trek’s Jean-Luc Picard and the X-Men’s Charles Xavier would have voted Remain. Which reminds Guido that in the final weeks of the EU referendum YouGov asked Brits how they thought various fictional characters would vote. Basil Fawlty obviously would vote for Brexit, he’s probably chairman of his local UKIP branch. Sir Humphry is obviously a devious Remainer. Guido is pleased to see that for Sherlock Holmes the logic of Brexit is elementary. Surely James Bond, who risks his life for Queen and country, would not have any loyalty to the EU, an organisation run by foreign villains with the type of HQ that usually ends up exploding towards the end of the movie?
A month ago Labour had a 7 point lead with Survation. That has disappeared following the Skripals, anti-Semitism and Syria. The Tories are up 3 points, Labour are down 4:
[…] Read the restWestminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 40% (-4)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 1% (-1)via @Survation, 14 Apr
Chgs.
Jeremy Corbyn told by veteran Jewish MP Margaret Hodge…
“You’re a f***ing anti-aemite and a racist”
