Mogg Tops ConHome Leadership Survey

Jacob Rees-Mogg is top of ConservativeHome’s leadership survey on 23%, well ahead of the the next contender David Davis on 15%. Like Guido and the Mogg himself, ConHome reckon Jacob isn’t a serious contender and this is a protest vote in the absence of a decent candidate. Editor Paul Goodman says “In our view, Jacob Rees-Mogg is the beneficiary of party member disillusion with the present senior options for replacing her”. Quite.

In any case it is Tory MPs who select two candidates for the membership to choose from, Rees-Mogg will not be one of them. Note that “other” is in second place. Would be interesting to see a survey with the full raft of younger potential runners and riders…

May’s Year in Numbers

Theresa May’s YouGov positivity rating has gone from just less than zero to minus 50 in the last 12 months.

Last year IPSOS Mori gave her an impressive plus 35 net approval rating, she has swung 42 points to a minus 7 rating. She still has a higher rating than Corbyn, though her 68 point advantage is now just 4 points. She’s going to need a lot more of these ‘human’ interviews with Emma Barnett if that is going to change…

Davis Leads Boris in ConHome Leadership Survey

David Davis leads Boris Johnson by 24% to 18% in ConHome’s new Tory leadership survey of 1,191 readers, though the clear winner is the ‘none of the above’ option on 30%. DD’s grown-up handling of Brexit is serving him well with the Tory grassroots, as was always his plan. Boris’ recent outbreak of Torbynism won’t help him with members. Not real appetite for Hammond or Rudd at all. In terms of the “others” suggested by readers, Raab was most popular on 2%, Gove behind him. No Ruth Davidson surge…

British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

Final Polls Show 8% Average Lead for Tories

YouGov’s final poll comes in with the Tories 7% ahead, both the Tories and Labour are 4% up on 2015. The average poll lead for the Tories is at 8%…

Tories 11 Points Clear With ICM

CON: 45% (no change)

LAB: 34% (up 1)

LIBDEM: 8% (no change)

UKIP: 5% (no change)

GREEN: 3% (no change)

CON LEAD: 11 points (down 1)

And breathe…

All Saturday Night’s Polls in One Place

Guido’s average of tonight’s polls has the Tories 7 points clear. On course… 

Tory and Labour Candidates All Believe May Heading For Comfortable Win

There is a complete consensus among every Tory and Labour candidate Guido has spoken to over the last week. They are not seeing on the doorstep the alleged Labour surge seen in the polls. Not a single Tory candidate Guido has spoken to has noticed a significant problem in their constituency – there is grumbling over the manifesto, dementia tax and the May campaign’s general inadequacy, but nothing to suggest there is some unprecedented groundswell of people seriously considering voting for Corbyn. Guido has spoken to Tory candidates in seats with 8,000 Labour majorities who still believe they will win. As Politico reports, everyone in CCHQ is giving off an air of calm. That is the mood Guido gauges too. Not one Tory candidate has indicated to Guido they believe there is a problem in their seat. 

Labour candidates (with the exception of Corbyn and McDonnell) agree. As the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot says, there is unanimity among Labour that they are not seeing what the polls suggest. More than one Labour veteran has told Guido that several high-profile Labour MPs are still likely to lose their seats. A senior former Labour official reckons the Tories will still win an 80+ majority. As Joan Ryan, the Labour incumbent in the Tory-Labour marginal of Enfield North says, “Realistically no one thinks Theresa May will not be Prime Minister”. Everyone on the ground on all sides does not believe the YouGov hung parliament projection, they are all expecting to see a Tory majority of 50 plus at the very least…

UPDATE: A well-timed new model from Lord Ashcroft projects a Tory majority between 40 and 78. Sounds much more like it…

Tory Lead Down 10 to Just 5 Points

The polls aren’t getting any better for the Tories. Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Evening Standard is just out:

Conservatives: 45% (-4)
Labour: 40% (+6)
Lib Dem: 7% (=)

Squeaky bum time…

Tory Lead Down 7 With Panelbase

It’s a trend… Looks like Corbyn is going to poll above Miliband…

How the Pollsters Differ

YouGov is showing the narrowest gap between Labour and the Tories, ICM the widest. Who to believe?

Tory Lead Just 3 Points With YouGov

YouGov doubling down…

You What Gov?

Eh?

YouGov Projection: Hung Parliament

Pollsters…

Corbyn’s Foreign Policy Populism is Popular

These are the weighted results from YouGov’s survey of 7,134 adults today. 53% agree with Corbyn what involvement in foreign wars are partly responsible for terror attacks in Britain. 24% agree with the Tories that they are not. The thing about populism – and opposing foreign interventions is a populist policy used by politicians on right and left – is it can be popular…

Pound Down as Corbyn Gets Closer

This morning’s YouGov/Times poll (Con 43% vs Lab 38%) has knocked the pound, which fell against all of its 16 major peers this morning. Sterling has touched $1.2858 today, a two week low. Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank told Bloomberg:

“Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

City jitters…

Tory Lead Down 19 Points During Campaign

The Tories had a 24 point lead over Labour with YouGov at the beginning of the election campaign. Now that lead is just 5 points. A swing which would translate to a Tory majority of just two…

Meanwhile the Tory lead is down 10 points with TNS:

These polls were carried out before Corbyn blamed the West for terrorism, and of course tighter polls mean a focusing of voters’ minds. Still squeaky bum time in CCHQ, May’s post-election party authority up for grabs…

Tory Lead Slashed By 6 Points With ICM

The trend of the declining Tory lead continues with gold standard pollster ICM this afternoon:

CON: 47% (down 1)

LAB: 33% (up 5)

LIBDEMS: 9% (down 1)

UKIP: 4% (down 2)

GREENS: 2% (down 1)

CON lead: 14 points (down 6)

Still a very healthy lead and the consolation for the Tories is narrowing polls should focus the minds of the voters and increase Tory turnout…

UPDATE: And in Wales last month’s Tory lead has disappeared, Labour back ahead:

May Manifesto Bombs

Tory lead slashed with two pollsters following the manifestos:

YouGov / Sunday Times

CON: 44% (-5)

LAB: 35% (+4)

LIBDEM: 9% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-)

Survation / Mail on Sunday

CON: 46% (-2)

LAB: 34% (+4)

LIBDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-1)

Dementia tax proving unpopular. Though this election’s wobble weekend still sees the Tories comfortably ahead by 9 and 12 points…

Labour Surge 8 Points to 34%

Boost for Jez in today’s new Ipsos Mori poll:

CON: 49% (-)

LAB: 34% (+8)

LIBDEM: 7% (-7)

GREEN: 3% (+2)

UKIP: 2% (-2)

Complete LibDem and UKIP collapse, Labour slightly closing the gap…[…] Read the rest

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