There Was No Labour Conference Bounce

Whilst Corbynistas grabbed onto a BMG poll that showed a post-conference Labour bounce, it looked like an outlier and the new poll from YouGov suggests it was very much so. This latest YouGov poll will not reflect any movement post the Tory conference. Given the general consensus was that the Tories had a neutral to positive conference we should not expect a downward move. It is a reflection on how badly Corbyn is perceived by voters that 8 years into Tory government the opposition still trails.

It is a reflection on how bad Theresa May is perceived by voters that she still trails don’t know for Prime Minister by 5 percentage points…

Labour Now Six Points Behind Tories

YouGov have found that the Tories have opened up a six point lead in the week of Labour Party Conference. YouGov was the first pollster to spot Labour’s poll advance during the 2017 election. They have had the Conservatives in the lead consistently for the last two months. Not that you’d think that given the media narrative…

Field work was done on Monday and Tuesday, so it precedes Corbyn’s speech. Will Jezza move the needle in the next poll?

Guido Poll: Readers Reject TV Debates Commission

Guido readers have not embraced the prospect of a new TV debate commission with quite the same enthusiasm as Sky News, despite Sky‘s wall-to-wall attempts to plug the idea. Over 2,500 readers answered Guido’s Twitter poll, with 74% coming out against the idea of a new quango to force party leaders to take part in televised debates in the run up to general elections. A surprisingly firm 3 to 1 ratio. Guido is not opposed to the idea – so long as a commission was funded by the television industry not taxpayer…

Fact Check Torpedoes Campbell

BBC fact checkers took Remain fanatic Alastair Campbell to task on BBC Politics Live today. Campbell’s assertion that “there has been a big shift in support for a second referendum” was thoroughly torpedoed by Sir John Curtice’s comprehensive analysis that “there is no consistent evidence of a shift in support for a second referendum.”

Loopy continuity Remainers want to convince the media that their second referendum is viable. It’s not.

Pollsters, Pollsters of the World, Who’s the Most Popular of All?

Not that you would realise it from watching the mainstream media, Donald Trump has a 46% approval rating accoring to YouGov USA. Macron, the latest idol of centrist pundits, is on 42%. May and Italy’s Conte are on 30%. The former supposed leader of the free world, Angela Merkel, is trailing on 27%. Trump is winning despite the best efforts of those in the elite media trying to shape the agenda…

3AM Eternal for the Bitter Pollster of Remain

In the dark hours of last night the Remain campaign’s pollster – who told David Cameron to go to bed happy on referendum night because he had won by 10 points – can’t restrain his bitterness. Accusing Boris of courting “fascism”. Juvenile analysis as usual from Andrew Cooper.

Tories Take Lead By Default

Labour’s latest anti-Semitism crisis appeared to be cutting through to the public this week, with the party down 3% and Tories up 1%. It’s worth noting that the Tories have stayed stagnant whilst Labour have fallen significantly behind, in true Theresa May style, scraping through by standing still. Signs of life over at UKIP as they rise 1% to 7%. Corbyn makes a personal new low on best PM, with just 22% reckoning he’s the best choice for Downing Street.

All this highlights the stupidity of CCHQ keeping the Boris row rumbling on…

Public Want May and Corbyn Gone Before Next Election

Sums up what the public think of the dire offering from each of our main parties…

Trump Voters Trust Him

This YouGov/CBS poll suggests Trump supporters trust him more than their own mothers. The opposition media are so deranged in their attacks it just isn’t working…

Labour Lead Again

Labour up two, Tories down one with ICM…

Polls Before and After Chequers

The polls before and after Chequers, via Number Cruncher Politics. Before Chequers, the Tories were ahead. Since, Labour have surged. They have been ahead in the last five polls in a row.

Ipsos MORI (27 June) CON+3
YouGov (4 July) CON+1
BMG (5 July) CON+2

CHEQUERS (6 July)

Survation (7 July) LAB+2
Kantar (9 July) CON+2
ICM (9 July) CON+2
YouGov (9 July) TIE
YouGov (11 July) LAB+2
Opinium (13 July) LAB+4
Deltapoll (14 July) LAB+5
YouGov (17 July) LAB+5
YouGov (20 July) LAB+1

This only means one thing for Tory MPs in marginal seats…

Tory MPs to Reflect Over Recess on Who Can Beat Corbyn

The YouGov/Sunday Times polling this weekend which put various potential Tory leaders against Corbyn to voters has given much food for thought for Tory MPs as they head off for recess. With Labour now pulling ahead (41% against 36%) in polling since the Chequers Plan sell-out, the question of who can beat Corbyn post-May is becoming urgent…

Despite a continuous monstering in many of the pro-Remain papers by green-eyed hacks, Boris remains the Tories’ best hope according to YouGov. With Boris as leader the Tories would now be tied (38% to 38%) with Corbyn’s Labour. With Mogg they trail Labour by 5%, with Gove, Saj and Hunt they would be double digits behind. Something for Tory MPs in marginal seats to reflect on over the holidays.

Boris still has the ability to reach parts of the electorate that no other Tory can, he is the reason the Leave campaign won the referendum. When Tory MPs return to their constituencies, this polling will focus minds in the coming months…

Source: YouGov

Corbyn Would Thrash Gove, Saj or Hunt

Worth looking at the breakdown of those Tory leadership numbers from YouGov in the Sunday Times yesterday. Corbyn’s Labour would be five points clear ahead of a Tory party led by Rees-Mogg. Labour would have a massive 10 point lead over the Tories if they were led by Michael Gove, that lead would extend to 11 points if Saj was in charge, and 12 points if the Tories were led by Hunt.

Boris
LAB: 38%
CON: 38%

Mogg
LAB: 40%
CON: 35%

Gove
LAB: 40%
CON: 30%

Saj
LAB: 40%
CON: 29%

Hunt
LAB: 41%
CON: 29%

Dire for some of these Tory wannabes… 

Leave Voters Turning Against May

With so much of the core Tory vote coming from Leave supporters, these numbers are more cause for concern. Back in April, Theresa May had a net approval rating of +10 with Leave voters. Now it is -23. If that even starts to replicate itself across the Tory party at an election, MPs are losing their seats…

Labour Lead as Public Rejects Chequers Deal

Horrendous numbers for the Tories and Theresa May via YouGov as the public rejects her Chequers deal. May and the Tories lose badly on every metric, as voters back DD and Boris’ decision to quit. Remainers / Soft Brexiters and Number 10 had hoped the public weren’t following the detail. They aren’t fools.

‘None of the Above’ Voters’ Choice for PM

“Don’t Know” is now pulling ahead of Theresa May with Jeremy Corbyn still third in a two-horse race. Voters know they are between the red devil and a deep blue sell-out…

87% of Guido Readers Oppose May’s Brexit Deal

Over 14,000 Guido readers have voted in our Twitter poll over the last 24 hours. A resounding 87% of them have delivered a crushing verdict rejecting Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Just 13% voted in support. It is clear that readers of this website, many of whom will be the sorts of Leave voters that Tory MPs need to keep their seats, think it’s a turd…

A survey by ConservativeHome of 1,225 Tory members has found that 61% of them, three in five, think the government’s proposal would be a bad deal for Britain. Just 31% think it is a good deal. Guido cannot help but wonder if Michael Gove and Sajid Javid, in selling out and backing the deal, have sealed their fates in terms of their leadership ambitions.

The Tories have lost their overall poll lead with YouGov this week. They are now level with Corbyn’s Labour on 39%. 14% say May’s plan is good for Britain, 33% say it is bad. More people think it does not respect the referendum result than think it does. 18% think the government is doing well at negotiating Brexit, 66% think it is doing badly.

Guido readers, Tory members and voters all agree – May’s deal is bad for Britain…

YouGov: Tory Membership’s Confidence in May Plummets

In the space of just nine months the number of Leave-backing Tories with confidence in Theresa May has fallen to barely half (52%). The much fewer Remain backing Tories who have confidence is stable (78%). The number of normally loyal Leave-backing Tories who want her to go immediately has jumped from 6% to 25%. Incidentally, these figures correlate quite well with the ConservativeHome readers panel numbers. Dangerous times for Theresa…

Labour Now Ahead Following May’s Brexit Sellout

Tories down 3 points to 38%, Labour up 2 to 40%. This will not reassure those Tory MPs worried May’s sellout will lose them their seats…

ComRes on MPs’ Favourite News Sources: Radio 4, Times, Guido, Brilllo, Quentin

Pollsters ComRes have asked 151 MPs for their favourite news sources. Radio 4 is the most popular daily news source which will please the Today Programme, The Times with its strong comment section is the most popular online newspaper, The Standard is the most popular dead tree news source – well it is free.[…] Read the rest

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