Swinson Ends Election Even More Unpopular than Corbyn

From claiming she could be the next government to looking like they’ll actually lose seats, the Lib Dems have had a cracking campaign – and it’s all down to one woman: Jo Swinson. 

It’s known Swinson’s got more unpopular over the election. According to Ipsos MORI she is now officially less popular than Corbyn. Swinson’s net favourability has fallen from -20 a month ago to -31 today: 1% more unpopular than Corbyn’s -30. In the same period Corbyn’s become 9% more popular, Boris 6% less popular and Farage 4% down. Even Theresa May will be feeling sorry for Jo at this point…

See also: Jo Swinson Wiped from Lib Dem Leaflets

Latest ICM Poll Puts Tory Lead Rolling Average Below 10%

The tight 6% lead from ICM yesterday for the Tories knocks the rolling average lead over according to Britain Elects down to 9.7%. Both Labour and the Tories appear to be plateauing. Frightening tightening…

Tory Lead Grows as Polling Day Draws Closer

Quite conversely to 2017, as the UK enters the final week of this December election the Tories’ poll lead is in fact growing – and Labour is falling back.

According to the Britain Elects poll tracker, after a previously shrinking lead, the Tories start the week on 42.9% – +0.4% on last week; and Labour stalling with a fall of -0.1% to 33%.

Famously, online Corbynistas declare they only trust Survation polls, as they were the most accurate pollsters in 2017. Obviously most other pollsters are mere Tory stooges…

Unfortunately for Corbyn’s true believers, they waited only to see their favourite polling company declare a last-minute Tory surge of 3% up to a 14% lead over Labour, with Corbyn dropping by 2% on the last poll.

Even more infuriatingly for Labour was yesterday’s YouGov poll confirming the Tories now lead among working-class voters by 17% – in comparison to the 7% lead Labour enjoyed just four years ago. The Corbynistas are already making their excuses…

Boris Increases Poll Lead over Corbyn as Preferred PM

A new Kantar poll has shown the public’s preference for Boris as PM has risen by 4% since their last poll on the 25th November – up to 41%; with Corbyn falling by 2% over the same period to 22%. It seems not even Richard Burgon’s increased campaign presence can turn around Corbyn’s fortunes…

This morning the FT reported that Tory strategists are anxiously watching for signs that Corbyn is catching up with Johnson in ‘best PM polls’, as this was one of the warning signs of May’s impending doom in 2017. This might steady the nerves of CCHQ somewhat then…

British Indians Abandoning Labour

A landmark election poll of British Indians has found a 12-point decline in the community’s support for the Labour party since 2017Is there any community Corbyn can’t offend with his foreign policy?…

The abandoning of the Labour Party by British Indians comes after Corbyn sparked a diplomatic incident with the country, after claiming he had discussed the ongoing incident in Kashmir during a meeting with the Congress Party, before being slapped down by the party’s leader who said that was purely an internal affair in which Corbyn had no right to interfere.

The poll also found most British Indians believe UK-India relations will deteriorate more with Corbyn as PM, than Boris. Although third in the poll, the Lib Dems, support has more than doubled since the last election. Undecideds are much higher than average too. Lots of Indian voters are looking for anyone but Corbyn…

Brexit Party Crash to 2% in New Kantar Poll

The Tories have surged to an eighteen point lead in Kantar’s latest poll, largely as a result of the Brexit Party crashing down to just 2% – a fall of seven points. The Lib Dems are also down one, contributing to the Tories’ eight-point rise. Nothing is in the bag about this election but this will make for reassuring reading for CCHQ ahead of tonight’s debate…

Boris Storms Ahead as Preferred PM

 

Boris has taken an even more commanding lead in Survation’s preferred Prime Minister polling. The PM is up six points on last month, with the Lib Dems crashing down to place Swinson behind Corbyn, who himself has fallen by two points.

This mirrors Deltapoll’s findings over the weekend that saw the Lib Dems tumble five points to just 11%. Ironically the Tories are worried that if Swinson’s party continues to plummet, the Remain vote won’t be split enough to win back key targets in metropolitan places like London…

Tories Take 20 Point Lead With Working Class Voters

New polling from YouGov shows a twenty point lead for the Conservatives amongst C2DE (working-class) voters. Amongst the middle classes, this lead drops to nine points. The polling has found that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green parties are all more popular with middle-class than working-class voters. The ‘Labour’ party again showing it’s anything but…

UPDATE: Chris Curtis from YouGov raises another interesting point from this polling – the Tory lead with working-class voters is growing…

Tory Lead Squeezed Down to Six Points

The latest Survation poll has the Labour Party creeping up, gaining three points in one week to 29%, and squeezing the Tory lead down to six points, with the party resting on 35%.

CCHQ will be watching closely to see if this trend continues. Survation was the most accurate pollster in 2017…

YouGov Poll of 11,500 Voters Puts Tories 14% Ahead of Labour

A huge new YouGov poll of over 11,500 voters shows the Tories leading Labour by 14%, with the Lib Dems only 3% behind Corbyn – a result that, if repeated in the election, could see Boris win a three-figure majority.

The poll also shows the SNP are on course for a big win in Scotland, taking 42% of the vote and all but three of the Tories seats. YouGov also sees the Lib Dems beating Labour in their former Scottish heartlands.

In even more dire reading for Corbyn, YouGov polled personality traits for him and Boris, and found the PM’s likeability is 25% higher than Corbyn’s; with the Labour leader ahead in only authenticity, being in touch and honesty.

The enormous start-of-election poll also breaks down regional voting intention, with Labour ahead only in the North East (by 6%), London (by 10%) and Wales (by 1%).

The Brexit Party’s strongest showing remains the North East where they poll 19% – a big problem for the Tories hoping to pick up seats around Middlesbrough. All psephology fans are keeping their eyes peeled for another YouGov seat-by-seat predictor, like that which predicted the 2017 election so accurately…

Poll: Public Say this is a Brexit Election

A new YouGov poll shows the public see this forthcoming December election as even more about Brexit than the 2017 election. Good news for the Tories…

When asked what the most important issue facing the country at this election is, ‘Britain leaving the EU’ has increased to 69%, with health down in prominence in comparison to 2017.

Crime and the environment have also seen huge jumps in public focus, but the worst news for Labour is the NHS has fallen by a large amount. Labour will be desperate to see this change…

London Labour Lead Halves

London Labour’s lead over the Tories has dropped from 22 points to 10 points since the 2017 general election. Swinson has a +2 personal approval rating, Boris has a negative rating of -29 and Corbyn is through the floor on -45.

With Brexit the most important issue by far for Londoners, Professor Philip Cowley of QMUL reckons on these numbers Labour looks likely to lose seats.

“Compared to the position in 2017, these figures mean a fall of 16 points in the Labour share of the vote and just a four point drop in the Conservative share in practice, assuming no change by polling day, this would almost certainly mean seats being lost by Labour and gained by the Conservatives”.

Early days yet…

Poll: Tax Cuts Winning Working Class Votes

Polling by Public First for the Taxpayers’ Alliance finds that tax cuts are popular with workers. Lost in the all-party noise about spending on ‘free things’ is the enduring truth that tax cuts are popular with voters. The key findings were:

  • 60% of C2DE voters strongly favour cutting the basic rate of income tax down to 15p in the pound, from 20p now.
  • 68% of C2DE voters want tax thresholds linked to inflation or wage growth, so people don’t move into higher rate bands accidentally.
  • More than 75% of those polled supported a cap on council tax rises.
  • C2DE voters are more than twice as likely as ABC1 voters to back cutting corporation tax to 12.5%
  • 68% of C2DE voters, backed abolishing the BBC licence fee, compared to 40% amongst ABC1 voters, one of the biggest disparities found between the two groups.

The patronising attitude of politicians, progressive think-tankers and broadsheet columnists towards the working classes is that they want more welfare spending, in reality they want to be able to keep and spend more of their own money on the things they want – like everybody else. They are pro-business because most of them work in small businesses. Poll after poll shows that the truth is that people who work hard to earn a living resent over-generous welfare benefits more than those on higher incomes; for example 50% of C2DE voters believe there should be a National Insurance “no claims” rebate every five years for people who haven’t claimed Jobseekers’ Allowance. Only 39% of higher earning ABC1 voters think the same.

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[POLL] Tories Return to 2017 Vote Share

The first polls of the election campaign are now coming in thick and fast – and they make positive reading for the

A new Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard today shows the Tories rocketing up to 8% to 41% – where they were in the 2017 election.[…] Read the rest

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Boris More Trusted on NHS than Corybn

A Survation poll for the Daily Mail shows Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is less trusted on the NHS than Boris. 35% think Boris would be ‘best’ on the issue of the NHS, compared to 34% for Corbyn. The same poll also shows Labour are starting on 26% compared to 34% for the Tories, with the LibDems and Brexit Party on 19% and 12% respectively.[…] Read the rest

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Tories Start 16% Ahead, Curtice Gives Stark Warning

The Tories start the election campaign with a 16 point lead over Labour, who in-turn will find solace from being 9% clear of the Lib Dems. Still lots of undecideds in play for all parties…

However, with First Past the Post and the differences in voting behaviour from region to region, polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a stark warning to the soaring Tories; predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour.[…] Read the rest

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Brexit Party Supporters Back the Deal

Despite Nigel’s continuing opposition for opposition’s sake, it seems his usually loyal followers are abandoning him in favour of Boris’s new deal. Last man in the bunker… 

A new Survation poll out this morning shows 67% of Brexit Party voters want the Commons to pass the deal, a little behind the 73% of leave voters and 90% of Conservative voters.[…] Read the rest

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Snap Poll: Public Want the Deal Passing

Important snap poll from YouGov. Top lines:

  • Excluding ‘don’t knows’, the public want the deal passing by 63% to 37%
  • A quarter of remain voters, Labour voters and Lib Dems want the deal passing – less than half of each group oppose passing the deal
  • Only 10% of Leavers and Tories oppose passing the new deal

With an election looming, this should be a huge wake-up call to MPs…[…] Read the rest

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Tories Storming Ahead in the Polls

New YouGov polling for The Times has shown Boris’s Tories soar higher to a 15 point lead, making up more than the Labour and Brexit Party vote shares combined. The ‘Classic Dom’ strategy seems to be working…

Interestingly, the poll found that since July, the Brexit Party vote has fallen by almost two thirds among 2017 Tories, yet only by just 1% among 2017 Labour voters.[…] Read the rest

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Huge Poll Shows Britons Want Brexit Delivered

The biggest poll since the referendum itself, conducted for ITN by ComRes with 26,000 Britons, conclusively shows the public want Brexit sorted, with 54% of respondents saying we should support abiding by the referendum result and leave the EU. Even greater than the original 52:48 split…

When ‘don’t knows’ are included, leaving still has a majority, with 50% wanting to leave (30% with a deal and 20% with no deal) versus only 42% wanting to remain.[…] Read the rest

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