British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

Final Polls Show 8% Average Lead for Tories

YouGov’s final poll comes in with the Tories 7% ahead, both the Tories and Labour are 4% up on 2015. The average poll lead for the Tories is at 8%…

Tories 11 Points Clear With ICM

CON: 45% (no change)

LAB: 34% (up 1)

LIBDEM: 8% (no change)

UKIP: 5% (no change)

GREEN: 3% (no change)

CON LEAD: 11 points (down 1)

And breathe…

All Saturday Night’s Polls in One Place

Guido’s average of tonight’s polls has the Tories 7 points clear. On course… 

Tory and Labour Candidates All Believe May Heading For Comfortable Win

There is a complete consensus among every Tory and Labour candidate Guido has spoken to over the last week. They are not seeing on the doorstep the alleged Labour surge seen in the polls. Not a single Tory candidate Guido has spoken to has noticed a significant problem in their constituency – there is grumbling over the manifesto, dementia tax and the May campaign’s general inadequacy, but nothing to suggest there is some unprecedented groundswell of people seriously considering voting for Corbyn. Guido has spoken to Tory candidates in seats with 8,000 Labour majorities who still believe they will win. As Politico reports, everyone in CCHQ is giving off an air of calm. That is the mood Guido gauges too. Not one Tory candidate has indicated to Guido they believe there is a problem in their seat. 

Labour candidates (with the exception of Corbyn and McDonnell) agree. As the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot says, there is unanimity among Labour that they are not seeing what the polls suggest. More than one Labour veteran has told Guido that several high-profile Labour MPs are still likely to lose their seats. A senior former Labour official reckons the Tories will still win an 80+ majority. As Joan Ryan, the Labour incumbent in the Tory-Labour marginal of Enfield North says, “Realistically no one thinks Theresa May will not be Prime Minister”. Everyone on the ground on all sides does not believe the YouGov hung parliament projection, they are all expecting to see a Tory majority of 50 plus at the very least…

UPDATE: A well-timed new model from Lord Ashcroft projects a Tory majority between 40 and 78. Sounds much more like it…

Tory Lead Down 10 to Just 5 Points

The polls aren’t getting any better for the Tories. Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Evening Standard is just out:

Conservatives: 45% (-4)
Labour: 40% (+6)
Lib Dem: 7% (=)

Squeaky bum time…

Tory Lead Down 7 With Panelbase

It’s a trend… Looks like Corbyn is going to poll above Miliband…

How the Pollsters Differ

YouGov is showing the narrowest gap between Labour and the Tories, ICM the widest. Who to believe?

Tory Lead Just 3 Points With YouGov

YouGov doubling down…

You What Gov?

Eh?

YouGov Projection: Hung Parliament

Pollsters…

Corbyn’s Foreign Policy Populism is Popular

These are the weighted results from YouGov’s survey of 7,134 adults today. 53% agree with Corbyn what involvement in foreign wars are partly responsible for terror attacks in Britain. 24% agree with the Tories that they are not. The thing about populism – and opposing foreign interventions is a populist policy used by politicians on right and left – is it can be popular…

Pound Down as Corbyn Gets Closer

This morning’s YouGov/Times poll (Con 43% vs Lab 38%) has knocked the pound, which fell against all of its 16 major peers this morning. Sterling has touched $1.2858 today, a two week low. Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank told Bloomberg:

“Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

City jitters…

Tory Lead Down 19 Points During Campaign

The Tories had a 24 point lead over Labour with YouGov at the beginning of the election campaign. Now that lead is just 5 points. A swing which would translate to a Tory majority of just two…

Meanwhile the Tory lead is down 10 points with TNS:

These polls were carried out before Corbyn blamed the West for terrorism, and of course tighter polls mean a focusing of voters’ minds. Still squeaky bum time in CCHQ, May’s post-election party authority up for grabs…

Tory Lead Slashed By 6 Points With ICM

The trend of the declining Tory lead continues with gold standard pollster ICM this afternoon:

CON: 47% (down 1)

LAB: 33% (up 5)

LIBDEMS: 9% (down 1)

UKIP: 4% (down 2)

GREENS: 2% (down 1)

CON lead: 14 points (down 6)

Still a very healthy lead and the consolation for the Tories is narrowing polls should focus the minds of the voters and increase Tory turnout…

UPDATE: And in Wales last month’s Tory lead has disappeared, Labour back ahead:

May Manifesto Bombs

Tory lead slashed with two pollsters following the manifestos:

YouGov / Sunday Times

CON: 44% (-5)

LAB: 35% (+4)

LIBDEM: 9% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-)

Survation / Mail on Sunday

CON: 46% (-2)

LAB: 34% (+4)

LIBDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-1)

Dementia tax proving unpopular. Though this election’s wobble weekend still sees the Tories comfortably ahead by 9 and 12 points…

Labour Surge 8 Points to 34%

Boost for Jez in today’s new Ipsos Mori poll:

CON: 49% (-)

LAB: 34% (+8)

LIBDEM: 7% (-7)

GREEN: 3% (+2)

UKIP: 2% (-2)

Complete LibDem and UKIP collapse, Labour slightly closing the gap…

Tories Lead By Record 22 Points With ICM

CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)

Courtesy of Britain Elects (via @ICMResearch / 05 – 07 May)

Only 15% Can Recall “Strong & Stable”

YouGov has discovered that only 15% of voters can recall the “Strong and stable” slogan. Lynton Crosby will not be happy until a majority of voters can recall the reason for voting Tory.

UKIP’s slump continues, they are now polling consistently behind the LibDems and at half the level they did in 2015. Guido can’t recall the UKIP slogan…

Public Backs Farron’s Right to Say Gay Sex Is a Sin

Tim Farron will no doubt be hugely grateful to ComRes and the Christian Institute for this new poll of 1,001 Britons today:

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should be free to express it: 64%

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should not be free to express it: 32%

Encouraging that the British public seems to overwhelming back free speech.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Philip Hammond uses a trip to Berlin to mock the Foreign Secretary:

“A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece. Wise words with some applicability to the Brexit negotiations although I try to discourage talk of “cake” amongst my colleagues.”

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