Polls Archives - Guido Fawkes Guido Fawkes

i / Mirror’s Fake Single Market Poll Rubbished

When Guido saw the i splash on a new poll claiming a majority now back single market membership, he foolishly assumed it was a real poll conducted by a polling company that meets the basic British Polling Council rules. Turns out it was an online survey of readers of Johnston Press, Trinity Mirror and Newsquest websites, with no methodology, tables or demographics published. Anthony Wells from YouGov and UK Polling Report is justifiably damning:

Anyway, back to the i/Mirror “survey”. As far as I can tell, this was conducted by putting up questions on the websites of the national and local newspapers they own

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018

People were prevented from voting more than once, but that only addresses one source of potential bias in a sample. You’re still only going to get the sort of people who view newspaper websites, which will have its own skews.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018

A proper poll needs to collect demographics like age, gender, class, education (and for subjects like this, things like past vote & EU ref vote), allowing the sample to be weighted to ensure the correct proportions, to make it representative of the British public.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018

Polls from members of the BPC need to report all these things (if you look at the tables on pollsters websites, all those demographics will be listed – across the tops of the tables, or down at the end of the surveys).

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018

Without that data, without being able to see if the sample is representative, or heavily skewed by demographics or attitude, a survey shouldn’t be taken as a meaningful measure of what the wider public think.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) April 23, 2018

The i has actually splashed on their own online survey as if it is a real poll, when in reality it isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. The Mirror at least buried this guff on page 12. How is a survey of readers of three news groups’ websites possibly representative? Total amateur hour masquerading as news…

April 23, 2018 at 4:17 pm

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Brexit Characters: Is Bond Really a Remainer?

Patrick Stewart told Marr yesterday today that Star Trek’s Jean-Luc Picard and the X-Men’s Charles Xavier would have voted Remain. Which reminds Guido that in the final weeks of the EU referendum YouGov asked Brits how they thought various fictional characters would vote. Basil Fawlty obviously would vote for Brexit, he’s probably chairman of his local UKIP branch. Sir Humphry is obviously a devious Remainer. Guido is pleased to see that for Sherlock Holmes the logic of Brexit is elementary. Surely James Bond, who risks his life for Queen and country, would not have any loyalty to the EU, an organisation run by foreign villains with the type of HQ that usually ends up exploding towards the end of the movie?

April 16, 2018 at 11:06 am

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Labour Lose 7 Point Lead in a Month

A month ago Labour had a 7 point lead with Survation. That has disappeared following the Skripals, anti-Semitism and Syria. The Tories are up 3 points, Labour are down 4:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 40% (-4)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 1% (-1)

via @Survation, 14 Apr
Chgs. w/ 08 Mar

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 14, 2018

Jezza’s positions over the last month may not be as popular as he thinks…

April 14, 2018 at 11:34 pm

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Labour Aides Told Anti-Semitism Not Hurting Them in London

Corbyn’s Twitter outriders have been gloating that Labour’s anti-Semitism scandal is not affecting the party in the polls. Owen Jones says the below comment about “relentless attacks” was not a reference to the anti-Semitism stories – Guido will let readers make their own minds up.

Owen’s tweet echoes what Labour HQ staff have been told in recent days. The word is that Labour aides have been informed that the anti-Semitism scandal is not affecting them negatively in London. It’s a grim state of affairs when a major party accused by mainstream Jewish groups of anti-Semitism cares only about the impact on its performance in the local elections.

April 9, 2018 at 1:37 pm

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Corbyn’s Personal Poll Ratings Plummet in Last Three Months

Jeremy Corbyn’s personal poll ratings have plummeted in the first quarter of 2018. Asked ‘do you think Corbyn is doing well or badly as Labour leader’, public approval has tanked from +8 in December to -25 this week, according to YouGov. May is on the opposite trajectory, improving from -14 to the slightly less terrible -6 in the same period.

On who would make the best Prime Minister, Corbyn is down -5 (26%) from where he was at Christmas. Jezza is getting back to where he was pre-election…

April 9, 2018 at 10:58 am

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Britain Still Backs Brexit 52% V 48%

This poll released last week shows 52% (43% + 9% “softer”) back Brexit. 48% don’t. Those numbers are familiar. Plus ça change…

April 9, 2018 at 9:17 am

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51% Say Labour Has Anti-Semitism Problem, 34% Think Corbyn Anti-Semitic

The debut poll by new polling firm Deltapoll, founded by former YouGov pollster Joe Twyman and ICM’s Martin Boon, has found that more than half of voters think Labour has an anti-Semitism problem and over a third think Jeremy Corbyn is himself anti-Semitic. 51% think Labour has at least pockets of anti-Semitism, and 34% think those pockets include the leader. That’s one poll Owen Jones won’t be gloating about.

April 8, 2018 at 10:13 am

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New Poll Shows Overwhelming Majority Want to Get On With Brexit

A new poll by BMG for Change Britain has found an overwhelming majority are in favour of getting on with Brexit. 57% agree that “the government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”. Just 22% disagree. Bad news for the Best for Britain crowd, 31% of Remain voters now want us to get on with leaving…

Indeed, the poll finds those who agreed with getting on with Brexit outweighed those who disagreed across all ages, classes, regions and political parties:

	Agree	Disagree
Total	57%	22%	21%
Male	55%	25%	20%
Female	59%	20%	22%
18-34	40%	29%	31%
35-54	53%	23%	24%
55+	71%	17%	12%
AB	53%	24%	23%
C1	50%	25%	24%
C2	61%	18%	20%
DE	68%	17%	15%
Con	78%	10%	12%
Lab	40%	36%	24%
LD	44%	34%	22%
UKIP	91%	3%	7%
Plaid Cymru	69%	19%	12%
SNP	36%	35%	29%
Greens	41%	34%	25%
East Midlands	53%	24%	23%
East of England	61%	18%	21%
London	49%	35%	17%
North East	62%	16%	22%
North West	62%	18%	20%
Scotland	44%	32%	24%
South East	58%	16%	26%
South West	61%	25%	13%
Wales	58%	22%	20%
West Midlands	63%	14%	23%
Yorkshire & The Humber	58%	21%	21%
Remain voters	31%	39%	29%

No Bregrets…

March 23, 2018 at 8:50 am

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Tories 3 Points Clear of Labour, UKIP on 1%

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (+1)
LAB: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
UKIP: 1% (-1) <- new low

via @ICMResearch, 16 – 18 Mar

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 20, 2018

UKIP look done, and another poll putting the Tories ahead of Labour…

March 20, 2018 at 5:29 pm

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Another Poll Has Tories Ahead

Another poll, this time from ICM for The Guardian, puts the Tories ahead. Last week’s Brexit speech seems to have put the Tories on the front foot. Drilling down in the data it appears voters think Theresa May has a more realistic Brexit policy, or as the Guardian puts it, “Jeremy Corbyn’s position on Brexit is seen as clearer than that of Theresa May but also less realistic and appealing.” The trend is developing…

March 6, 2018 at 2:19 pm

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81% Don’t Want Early General Election

A ComRes poll exclusively for the Sunday Mirror tomorrow finds that only 19% of voters want an early general election. ComRes say that rises to nearly a third in the 25-34 age group. Implying that over two-thirds of younger voters don’t want more politicking, so much for the Corbyn surge…

Guido could have told you this for free, most people are fed up with Brexit and politics dominating the news. People just want the government to get on with it…

March 3, 2018 at 6:00 pm

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BBC’s Brexit Bias is Mainstream Perception of the Public

As BBC Radio 4 Today treats us yet again to the views of Michael Heseltine – a politician who was elected to office as recently as the last century – it seems appropriate to bring up the subject of the BBC’s Brexit bias yet again. Guido thinks the BBC managed to keep it balanced during the referendum campaign. Since June 2016 it has lost all sense of impartiality…

Political activists of all colours always complain that the BBC is biased, the BBC uses as a defence “we must be doing something right” if both sides complain. BBC Question Time usually has a 4 to 1 majority for Remainers week after week, that is not redeemed by regularly inviting Nigel Farage on. The Today programme serves up a daily breakfast of gloom and doom on Brexit negotiations, Newsnight follows suit. Listeners wake up and go to bed hearing the same lines…

People aren’t stupid, by a 3 to 1 more people think the BBC is anti – than pro Brexit, when over a quarter of the audience has come to the conclusion the BBC is biased there is a real problem, because if we don’t want to read the most partisan newspapers we don’t buy them. The BBC’s funding forces us all to pay for it and we expect to be impartial as a result. It is manifestly not perceived as a source of impartial information on this polarising issue.

March 2, 2018 at 9:25 am

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Tory Poll Surge Continues

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 40% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 06 – 09 Feb
Chgs w/ Dec 2017

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 15, 2018

Now the Tories are up three points with BMG, after moving ahead with ICM and YouGov last week. It’s a trend… can the party start to revise expectations for the locals?

February 15, 2018 at 12:36 pm

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Tory Poll Surge As Labour Sink Below 40%

Today’s new YouGov poll has the Tories up to 43%, with Labour down three points to 39%, the first time they’ve been below 40% since before the election. This comes after the Tories took the lead with ICM on Tuesday. Almost as if the public don’t pay attention to Brexit process stories and Westminster is still detached from the rest of the country…

February 8, 2018 at 8:52 am

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Tories Lead Labour With ICM

Another poll showing Labour are going backwards despite the Tories’ troubles…

February 6, 2018 at 11:50 am

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Labour Still Not Beating Tories

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)

via @YouGov, 28 – 29 Jan

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 2, 2018

After the month the Tories have had, Labour should really be asking themselves how on earth they aren’t miles ahead…

February 2, 2018 at 2:04 pm

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Tory Voters Back May For the Moment

The public, and Tory voters in particular, would rather Theresa May stays in Downing Street than steps down, a new YouGov survey for WPI reveals today. Alternative leaders are likely to reduce support for the Tories. The poll finds:

69% of Conservative voters think Theresa May should continue as Prime Minister with only 18% saying that she should stand down;
Overall, 41% say she should remain in position and 34% say she should step down. That’s the same as in November last year (when YouGov asked exactly the same question, with 42% of people responding that she should continue as leader compared to 32% who disagreed.)
Leave voters are more supportive of Theresa May to stay (49%-32%) than those who voted to Remain (37%-38%);
Changing leaders would mean some voters might be more likely to vote Conservative (11%), but 20% would be less likely to vote for the party.

Reality check…

January 30, 2018 at 10:45 am

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Tories Take Poll Lead

The latest poll from YouGov has the Tories squeaking ahead 42% to 41%. This is the latest in a trend which has seen the Labour lead evaporate over the summer. This is despite the noisy ups and downs of the Brexit negotiations – it is almost as if the public is ignoring Brexit shenanigans. The public now has May just ahead of “Don’t Know” as Prime Minister at 37% to 35%. Corbyn trails “Don’t Know” by 7% points. Imagine if the Tories had a leader who connected with voters…

December 12, 2017 at 8:31 am

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YouGov: Brits Believe Her Majesty Backs Brexit

According to YouGov over three-quarters of those who expressed an opinion think Her Maj backs Brexit. Of course she does…

October 20, 2017 at 2:30 pm

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May & Corbyn Behind ‘Don’t Know’ for PM

The British public have come to a wise conclusion about who should be Prime Minister. None of the above…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

October 13, 2017 at 2:42 pm

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Seen Elsewhere

Bankers’ Wives Don’t Want to Go to Frankfurt | Politico
Aaronovitch’s Snide & Dishonest Attack | Peter Oborne
“I’m Concerned About My Obituaries” | Ask Agatha
Fake News Crackdown: Censorship? | Guardian
Inside Corbyn Board of Deputies Meeting | Stephen Pollard
City Spouses Block Brexodus | Politico
Windrush No Excuse on Immigration | ConWoman
Customs Union Debate Must End | Comment Central
PM Corbyn Advising King Charles | Danny Finkelstein
May and Boris Clash over Amnesty | James Forsyth
Mary Creagh’s Brow Set to Default | Quentin Letts
Tories Need Entrepreneurial Spirit | Sophie Jarvis
Local Elections 2018: Runners and Riders | Comment Central
BBC Stonewalls on Brexit Bias | ConWoman
Customs Union: A Matter of Confidence? | Laura Kuenssberg

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Quote of the Day

Jeremy Corbyn in the Evening Standard…

“… we must also face the uncomfortable fact that a small number of our members and supporters hold anti-Semitic views and attitudes, which need to be confronted and dealt with more rapidly and effectively.

The evidence is clear enough. Labour staff have seen examples of Holocaust denial, crude stereotypes of Jewish bankers, conspiracy theories blaming 9/11 on Israel, and even one member who appeared to believe that Hitler had been misunderstood.

So let me be clear. People holding those views have no place in the Labour Party.

… we have not done enough to get to grips with the problem, and the Jewish community and our Jewish members deserve an apology. My party and I are sorry for the hurt and distress caused. … We must strive to understand why anti-Semitism has surfaced in our party…

… when criticism of or opposition to the Israeli government uses anti-Semitic ideas — attributing its injustices to Jewish identity, demanding that Jews in Britain or elsewhere answer for its conduct, or comparing Israel to the Nazis — then a line must be drawn. Anti-Zionism is not in itself anti-Semitic and many Jews themselves are not Zionists. But there are also a very few who are drawn to the Palestinian question precisely because it affords an opportunity to express hostility to Jewish people in a “respectable” setting. Our movement must not be a home for such individuals.

Second, there are people who have come to see capitalism and imperialism as the product of conspiracy by a small shadowy elite rather than a political, economic, legal and social system. That is only a step from hoary myths about “Jewish bankers” and “sinister global forces”.

These views do no service to the struggle for a just society.”