Public Split on Kim Darroch Resignation

YouGov have conducted some remarkably speedy polling of the public’s attitude towards the Kim Darroch affair, although the fieldwork was conducted before his resignation. Over half the public thought it was wrong for the comments to have been leaked, 37% went further and said it was also wrong for the press to have published them. Good luck getting journalists not to publish a scoop like that…

On the issue of whether Darroch should have been replaced however, the public were much more split. 41% thought the next PM should have kept Darroch in place, while 35% thought that he should have been replaced with “someone more able to have good relations with the US Government”. Unsurprisingly there’s a very high “don’t know” response of 24%…

There’s already a clear Leave-Remain split on the issue, Remainers favoured keeping Darroch by 58% to 20% while Leavers favoured replacing him by 52% to 28%. More Tories also favoured replacing him, while Labour and Lib Dems supporters tended to want to keep him in place.

The reality is that what made Darroch’s resignation inevitable was Trump’s incredibly hostile response to the leak. The suggestion being put about by “friends of Darroch” that he was somehow going to stay in Washington for the next six months while being frozen out of every single meeting and function with the Trump administration, but then dramatically changed his mind after watching last night’s TV debate is plainly a fantasy. Darroch could have left office with his head held high as the innocent victim of a malicious leak against him, instead he has decided to turn it into a political attack on Boris…

Latest Net Approval Ratings Favour Boris

Jeremy Corbyn has a negative 51% approval rating; confirming that his condoning of anti-semitism and constructive ambiguity on Brexit has killed his fleeting popularity. Theresa May has a negative 31%, “Theresa May in Trousers” has a similar negative 30% and Boris a less negative 23%. Giving Boris a clear edge over Hunt. Hunt’s supporters like to say Boris is a Marmite character, they should reflect on how much Marmite is loved by the British people…

Full YouGov data tables.

General Public Now Rates Hunt & Boris Equally

Jeremy Hunt will be pleased with this YouGov poll which suggests the public is warming to him. In a post-Brexit election both leadership hopefuls will score 33% – which is news – last month Boris scored 34% to Hunt’s 30% – this tie is of course statistically within the margin of error. In reality without Brexit happening British political norms will be shattered and so will the chances of a Tory majority. The problem for Hunt is that the numbers for Tories are little moved and he is well behind Boris with the people who have votes… party members.

Tories and Brexit Party Joint Top in Latest YouGov Poll

There’s a rare bit of positive polling news for the Tories this morning as YouGov find them joint top for the first time since before the EU elections. Then, they were tied with Labour on 24%, today they’re tied with the Brexit Party on 22%, leapfrogging Labour and the Lib Dems who fall to fourth. Hardly time for the Tories to start popping the champagne corks, as recently as February they were polling almost double on 43%, before May delayed Brexit…

Tory Members Would Rather See Scotland Leave and the Party Destroyed than Lose Brexit

The latest YouGov polling of Tory members lays bare just how deep their commitment to Brexit now is. By a margin of over 30%, Tory members would still want Brexit to happen even if it meant Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving the UK or significant damage to the economy. A net 18% are still in favour of Brexit even if it destroys the Conservative (and Unionist) Party. The only scenario that Tory members wouldn’t countenance as the price of Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister…

However, as LBC’s Theo Usherwood points out, the raw numbers don’t take into account the likelihood of each event taking place. Tory members are more likely to be blasé about the first four scenarios as they don’t see a realistic prospect of them happening either way. The threat from Corbyn and McDonnell is much more tangible…

It isn’t purely an ideological calculation, the members also think it is their best route to electoral success. Over 50% believe that not delivering Brexit would damage the Tories so badly they would never lead a government again – a huge 92% overall believe it would lead to defeat at the next election. Conversely, a clear majority believe that delivering Brexit – both with or without a deal – will win the Tories the next election. 68% say it would be unacceptable for the next leader to be a Remainer who won’t leave without a deal, bad luck Rory…

“What Should We Have Wanted…”

Guido was pretty much alone in saying Andrea Leadsom would be better than Theresa May before May’s coronation and afterwards.

Now look, YouGov’s polling of Tory party members shows they wish they had in hindsight chosen Leadsom. Told you so…

50% of Tory Members Think Rory Would Make a Poor Leader

77% of Tory members think Boris would make a good leader…

MPs backing Boris will be pleased to see that Tory voters agree with members. In fact Boris is the only candidate who commands a positive net approval rating. Something that will perhaps surprise those avid for Javid.

Rory is the only candidate who has a negative approval rating from Tory members…

Brexit Party Top, Tories Still Fourth in Latest YouGov Westminster Poll

The latest YouGov poll sets out the scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader, whoever they might be. The Brexit Party are comfortably out in front on 26%, ahead of the Lib Dems on 22%. Chuka will be delighted, what’s left of ‘The Independent Group For Change’ scrape only 1%.

It’s worth remembering that the now insufferably smug Lib Dems were nowhere until the start of May. Their surge was largely from being at the right place in the right time as the only major ‘protest’ party on the ballot in the local elections. It wasn’t exactly Vince Cable’s charismatic leadership, was it…

Labour and the Tories continue their dire poll performance, Labour are in third with 19%, ahead of the Tories in fourth with just 17%. As recently as February, both the Tories and Labour were polling over 36% each. Now they can only just manage 36% combined…

Rory Stewart Will Destroy the Conservative Party

On the day that he launches his leadership campaign we learn that a Conservative Party led by Rory Stewart would be destroyed, he is an existential threat to the Tories being an electoral force and the party under his leadership would be reduced to 51 seats – less than the Liberal Democrats would win. According to pollsters ComRes, only one leadership candidate  will win a majority, Boris Johnson. Boris will smash Corbyn and win the Tories a 140 seat majority…

Tory MPs Shown Private Polling Under Different Leadership Options

Lord Tim Bell commissioned a private poll on Friday with the same panel of people that delivered The Times’ shocking Tory-Labour joint third place finish behind the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Bell got YouGov to ask the same panel if they would change their vote under different leaders. He has written to all Conservative MPs to describe the results. Guido has been leaked the crucial extract:

Bell wrote to Tory MPs

“The YouGov poll on the front page of The Times on Friday showed voting intentions in a General Election for the Conservative Party down to a paltry 19%, putting us in third place, behind both the Lib Dems and Brexit Party. But in my poll (using the same panel, on the same dates), when Boris is named as the leader, our vote benefits from the ‘Boris Bounce’, surging to 29% and putting the Conservative Party back in top place.”

Boris, Raab, and Saj turn around the Tories’ fortunes moving the party ahead. Gove and Hunt deliver put the Tories behind the LibDems on level pegging with Labour. All is not lost for the Tory Party…

UPDATE: Guido has obtained the full YouGov survey data tables. Team Boris will be very pleased with the results…

Hat-tip: graphic nicked from ElectionMapsUK

28% of Labour Members Voted Against Labour in Euro Elections

Fascinating polling of LabourList readers this morning, they asked Did you vote against Labour in the European elections?

28% of Labour members voted against their own party in the recent European elections, the LabourList poll of 9,286 respondents found.

The swing of traditional voters from the Tories and Labour was more pronounced than ever in the Euro elections. Ashcroft polling found that more that 53% of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit PartyThe Brexit revolution is shaking up the old parties…

YouGov Justify Not Prompting for the Brexit Party

YouGov not prompting for the Brexit Party in this morning’s bombshell poll when it is polling second in Westminster voting intentions and won the Euros has riled a lot of their supporters. Anthony Wells has written an explainer and makes this justification:

“…like many pollsters we overstated support for the Brexit Party, putting them at 37% compared to the 31.6% they actually achieved in Great Britain. Over the next few weeks, we will also be looking at the possible causes of that overstatement, and whether there was something to do with turnout, undecided voters or our weighting or sampling scheme that led to us having too many Brexit voters in our final poll.”

However, it’s worth remembering their final poll for the 2017 General Election predicted a 7% gap between the Tories and Labour, in the election itself this shrunk by the same margin to just 2%. YouGov may well have tweaked their turnout models afterwards, Guido doesn’t recall them doing anything as drastic as moving a major party into ‘Other’…

Either way, remember Cleggmania? Surges have a tendency to fall back. Even so, the Brexit Party outpolling the two main parties of the twentieth century is a real tribute to the popular appeal of Corbyn and May. The outcome of the Tory leadership race will determine the long term sustainability of the Brexit Party…

Brexit Party Voters Two Thirds Tory, One Seventh Labour

Rough breakdown from above is that two thirds of the Brexit Party’s voters came from the Tories, a seventh from Labour. Labour also haemorrhaged votes to the Greens and LibDems. Problems for both Labour and the Tories look daunting. The comentariat is already looking for another referendum, which is unlikely to be decisive. If instead the Tories elect a proper Brexiteer we could be out for Halloween…

More details here.

Brexit Party 18 Points Ahead in Final YouGov Poll

The final YouGov/Times poll before the EU elections has the Brexit Party miles out ahead on 37%, almost double the closest challengers in the form of the Lib Dems. On current polling this would make them the largest single party in the entire European Parliament. Labour have slumped to a poor third and are looking nervously over their shoulders at the Greens. The Tories’ misery continues as they fall further to 7%, this was before May’s offer of a second referendum vote yesterday…

The biggest danger now for the Brexit Party is that they can’t live up to the hype – turnout could be a big moderating factor for these elections which Brexiteers never wanted to happen. The other danger is that Farage starts believing his own hype too much, Guido was at the Brexit Party’s London rally yesterday and the atmosphere was electric, the one slightly off-key moment was when Farage took aim directly at Boris Johnson. Many natural Tory voters are happy to see the party get a bloody nose over May’s handling of Brexit, however if Farage’s goal becomes the wholesale destruction of the Tories they may be less on board…

Australian Labor Won 54 Polls in a Row, Including Exit Poll, Lost Actual Election

As a shocked Australian Labour Party licks its wounds at the unexpected loss of the election, the governing Liberal Party will be giving thanks to Lynton Crosby’s campaign management and polling. Three months ago every “expert” pundit down under expected and predicted Labor to win the general election. Some exit polls today even showed a clear Labour majority. Even as the counts came in Labor refused to concede. CNN eventually reported that “Labor May Have Lost Unlosable Election”.

The messaging was classic Crosby, repeated continually, Australians were posed a simple choice, “Do you want more jobs or more taxes?” Crosby confounded the pollsters when he delivered a majority Conservative government for Cameron in 2015. He’s done it again against the odds for Morrison in Australia. Tory MPs will be wondering as they mull over their future leadership contenders, whether the combo that delivered London for them in 2008 and 2012 can deliver victory for them again in 2022…

May’s Approval Ratings Hit All-Time Low, Corbyn’s Still Worse

The latest IpsosMORI survey has found May’s approval ratings have plummeted to an all-time low with 69% of people dissatisfied with her performance and just 26% satisfied, a net rating of -43%. A whopping 84% are dissatisfied with the Government in general, while May’s personal disapproval is the highest for a Tory leader since IDS in 2002. Not the news she wanted right as the 1922 Executive go in to meet her…

The one consolation for May is that Jeremy Corbyn is even more unpopular, 73% of people are unhappy with his leadership with only 20% satisfied, putting him on -53%. The fact that the public are 10% more unhappy about the Leader of the Opposition than one of the most hapless Prime Ministers in recent history is staggering…

Tories Fall Nine Points Behind Labour, Brexit Party Get 10% Despite Not Being Included

Labour have opened up a nine-point gap over the Tories, according to the latest Kantar general election polling. The Tories slumped to just 25% behind Labour’s 34%. Kantar’s poll from March had a ten-point lead for the Tories – that’s a 19-point swing to Labour in just two months…

Incredibly, despite not even being included in the poll, the Brexit Party secured 10% and 4th place entirely on the basis of spontaneous mentions. No such luck for Change UK, they also weren’t included but only managed 1%. How much worse would the Tories have scored if the Brexit Party were actually included?

Brexit Party Takes 18 Point Lead, Tories Slump to Fifth

The latest YouGov poll for the European elections shows support for the Brexit Party growing even stronger, up 4% from their previous position. Meanwhile Labour is collapsing and the Tories are almost down to single figures, and the Lib Dems have continued to squeeze CHUK to irrelevance. Since the European Elections have been held under proportional representation, no party has ever got more than 33.5% of the vote. The Brexit Party look like they could smash that record…

Brexit Party Takes Clear 6 Point Lead

We are now in the kind of territory that we have not seen since the days of the SDP. The Brexit Party (28%) is polling ahead of Labour (22%) and polling more than double the vote share of the Tories (13%). The Tory party chairman Brandon Lewis was pleading this morning for Tories to vote Tory.  This is the high price of failing to deliver Brexit.

Brexit Party Set to Smash Euro-Elections

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is polling on 27%, up from 15% in the last poll and nearly double the vote share of the Conservative Party. 49% of people who voted Tory in 2017 currently plan to vote for the Brexit Party in the EU elections, only 34% actually plan to vote Tory.[…] Read the rest

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