YouGov: Brits Believe Her Majesty Backs Brexit

According to YouGov over three-quarters of those who expressed an opinion think Her Maj backs Brexit. Of course she does…

May & Corbyn Behind ‘Don’t Know’ for PM

The British public have come to a wise conclusion about who should be Prime Minister. None of the above…

May’s Approval Rating Continues to Plummet

A year ago Theresa May had phenomenal double-digit approval ratings, she had an incredible 40 point margin over Corbyn. Since the snap-election her net approval rating has plummeted. At -17 she now has a worse approval rating than Jeremy Corbyn (-5). An extraordinary turnaround in ratings… 

YouGov Tory Member Poll: Borismania Back, Rudd Bombs

For all the attacks on him in the media and among Remainers over the last few weeks, YouGov finds Boris is the choice of Tory members to be the next leader. Ruth Davidson is in second place and Jacob Rees-Mogg is in third. Notably David Davis is some way behind on just 11%, while the Cameroon choice Amber Rudd is completely out of it on just 6%. Hammond is on a meagre 5%. Sobering for the Remain hope Rudd, and a reminder that the anti-Boris Remain media narrative does not reflect the views of Tory members…

H/T Sam Coates

Corbyn Third Best PM After ‘Don’t Know’

With all the Corbynmania of the true believers in Brighton it is often forgotten that Labour lost the general election against the worst campaigning Tory leader in living memory. It is worth reminding those outside the Brighton bubble that most voters still rate him behind ‘Don’t Know’ as the best Prime Minister. This speech is not going to change that…

Mogg Tops ConHome Leadership Survey

Jacob Rees-Mogg is top of ConservativeHome’s leadership survey on 23%, well ahead of the the next contender David Davis on 15%. Like Guido and the Mogg himself, ConHome reckon Jacob isn’t a serious contender and this is a protest vote in the absence of a decent candidate. Editor Paul Goodman says “In our view, Jacob Rees-Mogg is the beneficiary of party member disillusion with the present senior options for replacing her”. Quite.

In any case it is Tory MPs who select two candidates for the membership to choose from, Rees-Mogg will not be one of them. Note that “other” is in second place. Would be interesting to see a survey with the full raft of younger potential runners and riders…

May’s Year in Numbers

Theresa May’s YouGov positivity rating has gone from just less than zero to minus 50 in the last 12 months.

Last year IPSOS Mori gave her an impressive plus 35 net approval rating, she has swung 42 points to a minus 7 rating. She still has a higher rating than Corbyn, though her 68 point advantage is now just 4 points. She’s going to need a lot more of these ‘human’ interviews with Emma Barnett if that is going to change…

Davis Leads Boris in ConHome Leadership Survey

David Davis leads Boris Johnson by 24% to 18% in ConHome’s new Tory leadership survey of 1,191 readers, though the clear winner is the ‘none of the above’ option on 30%. DD’s grown-up handling of Brexit is serving him well with the Tory grassroots, as was always his plan. Boris’ recent outbreak of Torbynism won’t help him with members. Not real appetite for Hammond or Rudd at all. In terms of the “others” suggested by readers, Raab was most popular on 2%, Gove behind him. No Ruth Davidson surge…

British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

Final Polls Show 8% Average Lead for Tories

YouGov’s final poll comes in with the Tories 7% ahead, both the Tories and Labour are 4% up on 2015. The average poll lead for the Tories is at 8%…

Tories 11 Points Clear With ICM

CON: 45% (no change)

LAB: 34% (up 1)

LIBDEM: 8% (no change)

UKIP: 5% (no change)

GREEN: 3% (no change)

CON LEAD: 11 points (down 1)

And breathe…

All Saturday Night’s Polls in One Place

Guido’s average of tonight’s polls has the Tories 7 points clear. On course… 

Tory and Labour Candidates All Believe May Heading For Comfortable Win

There is a complete consensus among every Tory and Labour candidate Guido has spoken to over the last week. They are not seeing on the doorstep the alleged Labour surge seen in the polls. Not a single Tory candidate Guido has spoken to has noticed a significant problem in their constituency – there is grumbling over the manifesto, dementia tax and the May campaign’s general inadequacy, but nothing to suggest there is some unprecedented groundswell of people seriously considering voting for Corbyn. Guido has spoken to Tory candidates in seats with 8,000 Labour majorities who still believe they will win. As Politico reports, everyone in CCHQ is giving off an air of calm. That is the mood Guido gauges too. Not one Tory candidate has indicated to Guido they believe there is a problem in their seat. 

Labour candidates (with the exception of Corbyn and McDonnell) agree. As the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot says, there is unanimity among Labour that they are not seeing what the polls suggest. More than one Labour veteran has told Guido that several high-profile Labour MPs are still likely to lose their seats. A senior former Labour official reckons the Tories will still win an 80+ majority. As Joan Ryan, the Labour incumbent in the Tory-Labour marginal of Enfield North says, “Realistically no one thinks Theresa May will not be Prime Minister”. Everyone on the ground on all sides does not believe the YouGov hung parliament projection, they are all expecting to see a Tory majority of 50 plus at the very least…

UPDATE: A well-timed new model from Lord Ashcroft projects a Tory majority between 40 and 78. Sounds much more like it…

Tory Lead Down 10 to Just 5 Points

The polls aren’t getting any better for the Tories. Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Evening Standard is just out:

Conservatives: 45% (-4)
Labour: 40% (+6)
Lib Dem: 7% (=)

Squeaky bum time…

Tory Lead Down 7 With Panelbase

It’s a trend… Looks like Corbyn is going to poll above Miliband…

How the Pollsters Differ

YouGov is showing the narrowest gap between Labour and the Tories, ICM the widest. Who to believe?

Tory Lead Just 3 Points With YouGov

YouGov doubling down…

You What Gov?

Eh?

YouGov Projection: Hung Parliament

Pollsters…

Corbyn’s Foreign Policy Populism is Popular

These are the weighted results from YouGov’s survey of 7,134 adults today. 53% agree with Corbyn what involvement in foreign wars are partly responsible for terror attacks in Britain. 24% agree with the Tories that they are not. The thing about populism – and opposing foreign interventions is a populist policy used by politicians on right and left – is it can be popular…[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Jo Swinson on Chris Rennard…

“Vince — and Tim before him — have repeatedly, publicly said Rennard is not welcome anywhere near their frontbench team, even as an adviser. I remain deeply frustrated that he was not expelled from the party through its disciplinary process. It just feels wrong, and I do not want Lord Rennard to continue as a member of the party. As far as I am concerned, he is not welcome.”

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