Voters Want MPs to Reject the Deal by More Than 2 to 1

MPs will be getting the chance to vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal… at some point within the next six weeks according to her spokesman, who has confirmed that the vote will be held before January 21. Of course, her spokesman was insisting 24 hours ago that the vote was going ahead today…

Had MPs been able to vote the deal down today as expected, the British public would have been behind them. The latest Lord Ashcroft poll found voters against the deal by more than a margin of 2 to 1, with 53% in favour of MPs voting to “reject the Brexit agreement even if it is not clear what the outcome would then be” compared to only 24% in favour of MPs voting to “accept the Brexit agreement as an imperfect compromise and move on to other issues”. Opposition to the deal has grown in the three weeks since Ashcroft first asked the question, with a 9% swing against the deal. Voters aren’t falling for May’s strategy of boring them into backing the deal…

Voters’ responses to what they considered the most important Brexit outcomes were also very revealing. The most important outcome among Leave and Remain voters combined was “the UK being able to do its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU”, ahead of “continuing to trade freely with EU countries with no tariffs or customs checks”. May’s approach has been the other way round…

Both Tory and Labour Leave voters agreed that the most important issue was “the UK making all its own laws and no longer being subject to rulings from the European Court of Justice” – ending free movement was only ranked as the fifth most important issue. Once again proving the Remainer narrative wrong that the Leave vote was nothing more than a small-minded backlash against immigration…

Only 20% Back Second Referendum if Deal Voted Down

Remainers went all People’s Vote of Judea on each other this morning, with People’s Vote hilariously attacking the Lib Dems for tabling a “deeply unhelpful” second referendum amendment, accusing them of “political point scoring” and whinging about it being “deeply unfair”. Snigger…

The latest polling from IpsosMORI won’t have made Anna Soubry’s birthday any better either. While over six in ten Brits (62%) think May’s deal will be “bad for the UK as a whole” with only 25% believing it will be good, there is no clear support for a second referendum or cancelling Brexit either if the deal is voted down:

Only 20% of people are in favour of a second referendum on leaving the EU altogether, while the same number would back leaving without a deal at all. A mere 10% back Labour’s preferred option of a general election, while a further 10% would back a referendum on whether or not to accept the deal itself.

The most likely outcomes, that the Government either seeks to reopen negotiations with the EU or a second vote in Parliament is held on substantially the same deal, are also pretty low-scoring, notching up only 19% and 6% support each. The bottom line is that we are in unchartered waters – nobody knows what is going to happen, but it is simply not true for Remainers to claim that there is a clear majority for a second referendum on leaving the EU…

Voters Want MPs to Reject Withdrawal Agreement

This poll out this morning from Ashcroft’s polling might surprise readers of the Daily Mail and others who are lapping up the superficially appealing line, delivered to camera from Downing Street by May, that the British people just want the government to “get on with it”. They don’t want them to get on with this deal. The British people overwhelmingly want MPs to reject the agreement.

By 46% to 26% they want MPs to reject the Withdrawal Agreement, if you exclude don’t knows that is 64% of the British people want MPs to reject the agreement – an almost 2 to 1 margin. Both Remain and Leave voters overwhelmingly dislike the deal…

Diane Abbott Warns Remainers Against Second Referendum

A strong warning against a second referendum came from an unlikely source on Question Time last night as Diane Abbott told Remainers to “be careful what you wish for”:

“What I say to people calling for a second referendum now is you should be careful what you wish for, because my suspicion is that if we had a second referendum now, the same people that voted Leave – who are not largely speaking in London – would vote Leave again, saying ‘didn’t you hear us the first time?'”

Didn’t she get Keir’s memo about “constructive ambiguity”?

However it turns out that Diane may be more in tune with the public mood than many of her fellow North London Labour colleagues, as a new Hanbury/Politico poll this morning revealed that just 9% of voters want a second referendum if MPs vote down Theresa May’s Brexit Deal. 34% say we should just leave with no deal…

Tories Up By Six Points

The Tories have received a boost ahead of the budget as a new Deltapoll survey for the Mirror has found them surging up 6% to 43% with Labour remaining unchanged on 40%. This is despite the backdrop of constant Tory infighting over Brexit. Either voters aren’t that bothered or they’ve just stopped paying attention…

There is little solace for Remainers either, with only 26% of people saying that Brexit should be abandoned altogether. However there is scant support for May’s current Brexit approach either, with 14% saying she should “go back to the drawing board and come up with a more acceptable plan” and 22% in favour of her leaving without a deal rather than making any more concessions to the EU. Just 10% support her pressing ahead with Chequers…

EU Survey Manipulates Franchise to Boost Remain

An EU-funded survey found an extraordinary 18-point lead for Remaining in the European union (53%-35%), way out of line with the polling average which shows the country remains more or less equally divided down the middle. What could have caused such an unusual result?

Upon deeper inspection, number boffin Matt Singh found that the Kantar poll had included respondents as young as fifteen years old, as well as others who are not entitled to vote such as non-UK citizens. On top of that it was not weighted to the 2016 vote, nor did it include any turnout modelling. They might as well have asked a “People’s Vote” coffee morning…

After Iran’s ill-fated flirtation with votes at 15 from 2009 to 2011, not one single country in the world has had a franchise that extends that low. Why is the EU suddenly seem desperate to follow Iran’s dubious example…

There Was No Labour Conference Bounce

Whilst Corbynistas grabbed onto a BMG poll that showed a post-conference Labour bounce, it looked like an outlier and the new poll from YouGov suggests it was very much so. This latest YouGov poll will not reflect any movement post the Tory conference. Given the general consensus was that the Tories had a neutral to positive conference we should not expect a downward move. It is a reflection on how badly Corbyn is perceived by voters that 8 years into Tory government the opposition still trails.

It is a reflection on how bad Theresa May is perceived by voters that she still trails don’t know for Prime Minister by 5 percentage points…

Labour Now Six Points Behind Tories

YouGov have found that the Tories have opened up a six point lead in the week of Labour Party Conference. YouGov was the first pollster to spot Labour’s poll advance during the 2017 election. They have had the Conservatives in the lead consistently for the last two months. Not that you’d think that given the media narrative…

Field work was done on Monday and Tuesday, so it precedes Corbyn’s speech. Will Jezza move the needle in the next poll?

Guido Poll: Readers Reject TV Debates Commission

Guido readers have not embraced the prospect of a new TV debate commission with quite the same enthusiasm as Sky News, despite Sky‘s wall-to-wall attempts to plug the idea. Over 2,500 readers answered Guido’s Twitter poll, with 74% coming out against the idea of a new quango to force party leaders to take part in televised debates in the run up to general elections. A surprisingly firm 3 to 1 ratio. Guido is not opposed to the idea – so long as a commission was funded by the television industry not taxpayer…

Fact Check Torpedoes Campbell

BBC fact checkers took Remain fanatic Alastair Campbell to task on BBC Politics Live today. Campbell’s assertion that “there has been a big shift in support for a second referendum” was thoroughly torpedoed by Sir John Curtice’s comprehensive analysis that “there is no consistent evidence of a shift in support for a second referendum.”

Loopy continuity Remainers want to convince the media that their second referendum is viable. It’s not.

Pollsters, Pollsters of the World, Who’s the Most Popular of All?

Not that you would realise it from watching the mainstream media, Donald Trump has a 46% approval rating accoring to YouGov USA. Macron, the latest idol of centrist pundits, is on 42%. May and Italy’s Conte are on 30%. The former supposed leader of the free world, Angela Merkel, is trailing on 27%. Trump is winning despite the best efforts of those in the elite media trying to shape the agenda…

3AM Eternal for the Bitter Pollster of Remain

In the dark hours of last night the Remain campaign’s pollster – who told David Cameron to go to bed happy on referendum night because he had won by 10 points – can’t restrain his bitterness. Accusing Boris of courting “fascism”. Juvenile analysis as usual from Andrew Cooper.

Tories Take Lead By Default

Labour’s latest anti-Semitism crisis appeared to be cutting through to the public this week, with the party down 3% and Tories up 1%. It’s worth noting that the Tories have stayed stagnant whilst Labour have fallen significantly behind, in true Theresa May style, scraping through by standing still. Signs of life over at UKIP as they rise 1% to 7%. Corbyn makes a personal new low on best PM, with just 22% reckoning he’s the best choice for Downing Street.

All this highlights the stupidity of CCHQ keeping the Boris row rumbling on…

Public Want May and Corbyn Gone Before Next Election

Sums up what the public think of the dire offering from each of our main parties…

Trump Voters Trust Him

This YouGov/CBS poll suggests Trump supporters trust him more than their own mothers. The opposition media are so deranged in their attacks it just isn’t working…

Labour Lead Again

Labour up two, Tories down one with ICM…

Polls Before and After Chequers

The polls before and after Chequers, via Number Cruncher Politics. Before Chequers, the Tories were ahead. Since, Labour have surged. They have been ahead in the last five polls in a row.

Ipsos MORI (27 June) CON+3
YouGov (4 July) CON+1
BMG (5 July) CON+2

CHEQUERS (6 July)

Survation (7 July) LAB+2
Kantar (9 July) CON+2
ICM (9 July) CON+2
YouGov (9 July) TIE
YouGov (11 July) LAB+2
Opinium (13 July) LAB+4
Deltapoll (14 July) LAB+5
YouGov (17 July) LAB+5
YouGov (20 July) LAB+1

This only means one thing for Tory MPs in marginal seats…

Tory MPs to Reflect Over Recess on Who Can Beat Corbyn

The YouGov/Sunday Times polling this weekend which put various potential Tory leaders against Corbyn to voters has given much food for thought for Tory MPs as they head off for recess. With Labour now pulling ahead (41% against 36%) in polling since the Chequers Plan sell-out, the question of who can beat Corbyn post-May is becoming urgent…

Despite a continuous monstering in many of the pro-Remain papers by green-eyed hacks, Boris remains the Tories’ best hope according to YouGov. With Boris as leader the Tories would now be tied (38% to 38%) with Corbyn’s Labour. With Mogg they trail Labour by 5%, with Gove, Saj and Hunt they would be double digits behind. Something for Tory MPs in marginal seats to reflect on over the holidays.

Boris still has the ability to reach parts of the electorate that no other Tory can, he is the reason the Leave campaign won the referendum. When Tory MPs return to their constituencies, this polling will focus minds in the coming months…

Source: YouGov

Corbyn Would Thrash Gove, Saj or Hunt

Worth looking at the breakdown of those Tory leadership numbers from YouGov in the Sunday Times yesterday. Corbyn’s Labour would be five points clear ahead of a Tory party led by Rees-Mogg. Labour would have a massive 10 point lead over the Tories if they were led by Michael Gove, that lead would extend to 11 points if Saj was in charge, and 12 points if the Tories were led by Hunt.

Boris
LAB: 38%
CON: 38%

Mogg
LAB: 40%
CON: 35%

Gove
LAB: 40%
CON: 30%

Saj
LAB: 40%
CON: 29%

Hunt
LAB: 41%
CON: 29%

Dire for some of these Tory wannabes… 

Leave Voters Turning Against May

With so much of the core Tory vote coming from Leave supporters, these numbers are more cause for concern. Back in April, Theresa May had a net approval rating of +10 with Leave voters. Now it is -23. If that even starts to replicate itself across the Tory party at an election, MPs are losing their seats…[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Andrea Leadsom told BBC Radio 4’s Today

“He’s made his views on Brexit on the record, and the problem with that of course is that the chair’s impartiality is absolutely essential. … He’s made his views known on Brexit… it’s a matter for him but nevertheless it’s a challenge and all colleagues need to form their own view of that.”

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