Tories Lead Labour in North

YouGov’s headline figure of a 42% – 25% Tory lead over Labour in this morning’s is bad enough for Corbyn. Even worse is the Tory lead in the North and among working class voters. Perhaps Jez will say the polls are rigged too…

Older People Want Burqa Ban

By 50% to 38% YouGov finds that Britons want a burqa ban. Last week Morocco became the latest country to take steps, the government banned the sale, production and import of the burqa, giving retailers 48 hours to destroy their stocks. Could it happen in the UK?

Drill down in the numbers and it turns out that there is only majority support for a burqa ban from over 50s. More than 70% of over 65s support a ban… 

France has made covering the face in public a punishable offence – with the support of many Muslim scholars and imams who say it is not required under sharia. Despite legal challenges the European Court of Human Rights upheld the legality of the law in 2014. Elsewhere in Europe Norway’s parliament has voted to ban the burqa, Belgium and Bulgaria have already passed banning legislation. Regions in Italy and Switzerland have also banned the burqa. Personally Guido thinks it unfortunate if a woman feels obliged or culturally pressured to wear a burqa. However in a free society it is not the role of the state to dictate what citizens can and cannot wear – the Taliban ban women from wearing mini-skirts…

Poll: Majority Now Distrust UK NGOs

Click to enlarge

The release of Edelman’s annual “Trust barometer” is particularly well-timed given Oxfam’s attack on philanthropists this morning. The survey of 33,000 respondents in 28 countries has found that trust in NGOs in Britain has plummeted by four points compared to last year. This means more than half of those polled now actively distrust British NGOs. We talk about a crisis in polling and economic forecasting, today’s Oxfam report shows why the credibility of NGOs is falling off a cliff as well…

Corbyn’s Unpopulism: Maximum Income Law Not Supported By Public

There’s an argument that Corbyn’s maximum wage law is an example of left-wing populism, that the public will quite like the idea of wages being limited for the rich. The polls show otherwise: when YouGov asked about public support for a maximum wage cap of £1 million per year in September 2015, 44% opposed and just 39% supported the policy. Turns out people don’t like the idea of the state deciding how much you can earn…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

Guido is getting a little worried that Labour is bottoming too soon for a proper general election wipe-out. Tories up three points with YouGov, Labour down two, 17 points behind…

‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

Polling Died in the Margin of Error

polling-rip

Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population. They can cling to irrelevant popular vote share qualifications. The fact is the industry has failed to call the right result, a hat-trick of fail.

With all their PhDs, data models and 99% confidence levels they missed it – again. This will of course give heart to Corbynistas who dont believe their hero has a double digit deficit against the Tories. Madame Le Pen will be measuring up the curtains for the Élysée Palace and no one will be paying much attention to pollsters prognostications. Gut instinct is back in fashion…

Zac Has 27 Point Lead With Standard/BMG

zac

A BMG survey for the Evening Standard suggests Richmond Park isn’t as close as the bookies suggest…

Poll Puts Nuttall Way Ahead

runners-riders-latest

Forget the spin, Nuttall is going to win according to polling of councillors by Matthew Goodwin. His support is greater than all the other declared candidates combined. Despite Raheem running a characteristically energetic and noisy campaign he is in a distant third place…leader-ukip-poll

Kassam is optimistic about his noisy online campaign’s reach and the rhetorical backing of Arron Banks turning into financial, and more importantly, organising muscle.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Early Election Prospects

seats-october-1

Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead By 18 Points

ipsos

Theresa May’s Miliband-esque economics and ‘Kippy immigration rhetoric cleans up Labour and UKIP votes…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead By 17 Points

poll

The joint highest ever Tory lead recorded by ICM, who have been doing these polls since 1992. Even the Greens are surging…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Voters Back Naming & Shaming

foreign-workers-numbers-support-by-party-01-540x270

This will not please Labour MPs – most of their voters back the government’s plans to force companies to report how many foreign workers they employ. In fact 59% of the population is in favour, even LibDem voters are in favour.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Progressive Majority Update

burka

The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Tories Lead by 14 Points

CON LEAD

The Tories’ lead over Labour is holding strong, as a gold standard survey from ICM for the Guardian reveals a 14 point gap between the parties. When these figures are plugged into Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, they project a Conservative majority of 367 seats, next to Labour’s 195 – a drop of 35.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Corbyn Leads Smith By 24 Points

POLL

Corbyn is beating Smith by 62% to 38% with YouGov, a lead of 24 points.

Labour leadership breakdown-01 (540x270)

Incidentally #Traingate encouraged people planning to vote for Jezza, 18% said the events had given them a more positive view of the leader, compared to just 5% who said it had given them a more negative view.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

David David responds when asked if he’s confident he can make a success of Brexit:

“Why on earth could it go wrong?”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Seamus Officially Leaves Guardian Seamus Officially Leaves Guardian
Article 50 Splits Shadow Cabinet Article 50 Splits Shadow Cabinet
Revenge Porn Momentum Candidate Quits Revenge Porn Momentum Candidate Quits
Red Len’s Hospitality Hypocrisy Red Len’s Hospitality Hypocrisy
Momentum Man is Porn Baron Momentum Man is Porn Baron
PMQs Sketch – Labour MPs Googling Museum Directorships PMQs Sketch – Labour MPs Googling Museum Directorships
NEC Fudges Danczuk Decision NEC Fudges Danczuk Decision
Investigation: Wrecking Peers in Pay of Unis Investigation: Wrecking Peers in Pay of Unis
Bromentum: All Male Shortlist Bromentum: All Male Shortlist
Nuttall Set to Stand in Stoke Nuttall Set to Stand in Stoke
One Line Whip As Whips On A Jolly One Line Whip As Whips On A Jolly
Leaving The Protectionist Union Leaving The Protectionist Union
Labour Drops Student Anti-Semitism Probe Labour Drops Student Anti-Semitism Probe
Israeli “Plot”: Latest Israeli “Plot”: Latest
Video: Putin on Russian Prostitutes Video: Putin on Russian Prostitutes
New European: Leave Voters “Lager Louts” New European: Leave Voters “Lager Louts”
Sion Simon Deletes Pro Remain Statement Sion Simon Deletes Pro Remain Statement
John Woodcock’s Fake News John Woodcock’s Fake News
May’s Brexit Plan – Full Text of Speech May’s Brexit Plan – Full Text of Speech