An official analysis by the Irish government’s Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine reveals the scale by which EU fishing quotas will have dropped (and UK quotas will expand) at the end of the fishing transition period. Titled “Preliminary Analysis Of Reduction Of Fisheries Quota Shares Under EU/UK Trade And Cooperation Agreement“, the document concludes that by 2026 EU coastal states’ shares of fish will shrink significantly – with quotas being ceded to the UK. Ireland and Germany will lose 15%, the Netherlands will lose 10%, France will lose 8%, Denmark and Belgium will lose 7%, and Spain will lose 4%.
Despite Macron’s bluster and spin, France has in reality been hit harder than reported. The Irish analysis has the average EU quota being reduced by 9.83%, so it is fair to say that they are literally being decimated. Their loss is the UK’s gain…
The Government’s secret ‘Reasonable Worst Case Scenario’ planning document for the event of no UK-EU FTA at the end of the transition period was compiled in July. As that potential scenario races closer and the Government makes preparations for the not impossible event of No Deal – potentially brought about from disagreement over fish – Guido thought he would share what could befall EU and UK fishermen. Battles at sea…
“EU and UK fishers could clash over the lost access to historic fishing grounds, and there could be a significant uplift in illegal fishing activities and disruptive behaviour.”
The document outlines the expected battle plans. In January, the Government expects EU vessels to target the high-value mackerel fishery in Scottish waters. Meanwhile, the main threat to English waters is expected in the Southern North Sea (Dutch and Belgian beam trawlers); English Channel (mixed fishing); and Celtic Sea (French and Irish mixed trawlers). As the document says…
“This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector – particularly if our enforcement response is not perceived to be robust or visible enough – which could lead to clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet, either in our own waters or in EU waters if UK vessels attempt to fish there.”
Guido’s wonders whether the Government is wishing it still had a navy of more than 77 ships…
Read the Government’s assessment of ‘reasonable worst case’ fishing battles in full here…
Fish throwing part 2. Now discussing haddock cooking techniques. pic.twitter.com/Sdb5RVeooa
— Theo Usherwood (@theousherwood) March 21, 2018
It is Guido’s understanding that after Jacob Rees-Mogg announced he would not be throwing any fish yesterday, the whips succeeded in kiboshing plans for other Tory MPs to conduct the dumping. Nigel Farage offered to step in last night, at which point the Tory fishing contingent made clear they would not be on board at the same time as him. So, the vessel stopped down the river from parliament to pick up Nige, and he then flung the fish. At least one person is still willing to stand up for Britain’s fishermen…
Vid via @theousherwood
As Tory MPs Ross Thomson and Craig Mackinlay prepare to fling these two buckets of fish into the Thames outside parliament shortly, 14 MPs including Jacob Rees-Mogg have written to the Prime Minister to declare the transition deal on fishing “completely unacceptable”. Read below…
Dear Prime Minister,
For the UK’s fishing industry, joining the EEC was a calamity. The resultant decline in the industry accelerated the economic and social decline in coastal communities and was disastrous for conservation and the marine environment. This cannot be compounded by compromise, as the UK leaves the EU.
Breaking fish throwing news from Fishing for Leave:
The fishing boat Holladays R8 will pass through Tower Bridge at 0800 WEDNESDAY 21 MARCH and sail upriver before tying up at Embankment pier 0830. Where there will then be a press conference with the chairman of the ERG, Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP, and other Conservative MPs with fishing constituencies.
The Holladays will then sail with Craig McKinley, MP, and Ross Thompson, MP, and set off again and pass parliament, where she will symbolically dump fish in protest at the British fishing industry being trapped and subjected to another 21 months of the inept Common Fisheries Policy which could see much of the UK fleet put out of business.
So the Mogg will not fling any fish himself but will give a press conference, then two other MPs will board the boat and the ceremony will be conducted. Above is the vessel from which the fish will be flung. Can’t wait.
