Rumours swirling round SW1 of various plots to oust Rishi after the local elections may be keeping up the pressure on the PM for while. First we had Kemi, then Penny, and now Tom Tugendhat’s name is cropping up. Badenoch and Tugendhat have dismissed the claims. Tory MPs have been saying the mood has very much changed in Parliament this week after the Sundays’ splash of the ‘plot’. Whether or not they’ll be successful in getting a new leader before the election is yet to be seen, though judging by the polls, the Tories will likely have a new one after the election…
Robert Jenrick, a man who appeals to the Tory right on issues such as immigration, has told friends that he will be running for leader, whenever that contest is – before or after the election. He did refuse to rule out running for leader back in January. It looks like Suella may not be the Tory right favourite anymore, so perhaps the final two in a contest may be whittled down to Jenrick and Penny/Tom. Whenever the new leader is put in place, it’ll be about fighting for the next election, not this one…
As the Tory train clatters towards the election well behind in the polls, the leadership challengers are well and truly out of the traps. Guido has a round up of the latest bumps in the road to the next leadership race…
Penny Mordaunt: Penny’s clearly had an interest in this week’s totally coincidental Deltapoll survey finding that Tory voters think only she could defeat Starmer. Directing her guns on Labour (rather than highlighting her own policies) in an early attempt to appeal to Tory members…
Grant Shapps: The Defence Secretary is currently busy handling the nuclear fallout after an embarrassing fail let a Trident missile to misfire and crash into the ocean while he was on board HMS Vanguard. He will be relying on his usual media sang froid over the next few days as the details of this nuclear mess play out…
Kemi Badenoch: The culture warrior is consumed in a growing public bust up with former Post Office chair Henry Staunton. Staunton has been fighting back against Kemi’s accusation that his claim he was told to delay pay-outs to sub-postmasters ahead of the next general election was a “blatant attempt to seek revenge” against the government. The spat doesn’t look like it will ease up anytime soon. Tory chatter is talking this issue up the agenda – handling it well will be crucial for Kemi…
James Cleverly: The ConHome table topper is now having a difficult time in the Home Office. This week he sacked his border chief who spoke out on immigration ‘security failings’ – and who had several reports sat on by the Home Office. Remains to be seen whether Cleverly’s chances will be hamstrung by the policy crisis over illegal immigration…
Michael Gove: His latest legislative attack on landlords and second home owners will continue to upset many Tories. He continues to deny that Badenoch is his placeholder…
Jeremy Hunt: Will Hunt have another crack at it? He did say in 2022 that his ambition to be leader had not “vanished“. The budget will be a litmus test with a membership crying out for tax cuts…
Robert Jenrick: The former immigration minister has been the most vocal about a leadership bid, repeatedly refusing to rule it out. He’s gone quiet recently…
Suella Braverman: Many saw Suella’s resignation letter as Home Secretary to be the start of a leadership pitch. It suffered from a lack of follow up. Is she off the pitch..?
Do report any and all leadership maneuverings or evidence of plotting. It’s going to be a long year…
The spotlight shone on Tom Tugendhat at the One Nation Conservatives’ New Year’s drinks party last night as the room was a buzz with chatter that his address to the audience resembled something of a maiden leadership bid speech. Diverging from the previous speaker Matt Warman MP, who attacked his colleagues by saying things like “at least the One Nation Caucus don’t have to pretend we’re five families to make ourselves look bigger than we are”, Tugendhat sought to unite all Tories, not just the wets in the room. Attacking the Opposition received a rallying cry from the audience…
He told the room, “we’re not interested in blue on blue, we’re interested in blue on red and blue on yellow”. To much amusement, he even made some racy jokes about Starmer: “Sir Keir Starmer has had more positions than the Karma Sutra – but not been able to hold any of them longer than a teenager on prom night.” Charm and cheek…
After some post-speech speculation, Guido asked Tom about whether he was gearing up for another stab at a leadership bid. He replied, “there’s nothing happening, not for ages”. That’s not a denial…
Ministers are on resignation watch. On Friday The Telegraph reported serving pensions minister Guy Opperman had been added to a list of 64 rebels set to be hit with a post-Jubilee charm offensive. It’s also thought Penny Mordaunt could be a resignation threat given her continued showboating against various government policies – she has just sent a tweet which pointedly ignores the matter at hand. Word reaches Guido that a “bunch of malcontent remoaner ex-ministers” are calling ministers pleading with them not to support Boris, with Steve Brine accused of leading the charge. Apparently he’s sending WhatsApps to remind everyone it’s a “#SecretBallot”…
The rallying call isn’t landing with all his colleagues, however. One minister tells Guido:
“If he messages me he can f**k right off, the only reason he’s still an MP is Boris brought him back after losing the whip and now he’s trying to shaft him.”
Brine briefly lost the whip in 2019 after supporting the Benn Act. In the general election a few months later, his majority plummeted from 9,999 to 985. Another hardcore remainer with a score to settle…
Since Grant Shapps yesterday said “there won’t be a confidence vote”, we now appear to have hit a new line of ‘don’t know’, with Sajid Javid this morning saying the PM will fight to win and do just that. The questioning came among major rumours this morning that Tory rebels truly believe the threshold has been breached, and Times Radio’s Lucy Fisher saying Brady will make a statement at 8 am.
BREAKING: A confidence vote in Boris Johnson is set to be announced this morning, I understand.
— Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) June 6, 2022
Sir Graham Brady is expected to make a statement to camera around 8am confirming that the threshold of 54 letters has been met, I'm told.
This morning former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Jesse Norman has tweeted out his letter to Sir Graham. Strap in…
As Tory MPs vent their anger and put their letters into Graham Brady, it is clear that if a week is a long time in politics, 3 months is like an epoch. Nevertheless, as Tory MPs reflect on their electoral futures and Labour’s 10 point lead in the polls, it is worth bearing in mind that only 3 months ago the party was jubilant and 10 points ahead of Labour. The electorate is livid to the point of hurting at the thought that, whilst they were locked down, the people making the rules were partying behind closed doors. That wound is about to be cauterised by Sue Gray.
Boris is the most successful campaigner in a generation; he won the Tories their biggest majority in decades. Given post-pandemic politics is particularly volatile, perhaps a sense of perspective is necessary. Mid-term blues are not a new phenomenon. In 1981 inflation had risen to 10%, and a Gallup poll for the Daily Telegraph had 70% disapproval of Margaret Thatcher – the lowest point reached by any Prime Minister since modern polling methods had begun. The poll also said 50.5% of voters intended to support the Social Democrats and Liberals. She went on to win two more elections…
If Tory MPs get rid of Boris during a mid-term lull, when they are 10 points behind, what is the plan? None of the front runners for the leadership even wants the job right now. Polling shows that none of the leading rival candidates for PM would save some 100 plus seats that would be lost if a general election were held tomorrow. If the Tories switch Prime Ministers without a general election, the calls for a general election mandate will mount. Be careful what you wish for…
Cheered on by the BBC, the Mirror and Guardian, Tory MPs are venting their anger and the genuine anger of their constituents with Downing Street via Graham Brady. Turfing out a Prime Minister over twentysomethings in Downing Street guzzling cheese and wine is not really on a level with Suez, are they sure this is a well judged course of action? Politics is volatile, that 10 point lead Labour has today could switch back in 3 months again. Boris could turn it around like Thatcher. Who of the other current contenders has the strength of personality and ability to connect with voters?
