Voting Has Now Closed, Betting Remains Open

corbyn-bets

Guido managed to reverse his bets on Corbyn in time and now stands to profit if #JezWeCan turns into #JezWeDid. Though it might be a little more expensive if Harriet Harman is brought back out of retirement. Andy Fandies have been telling Guido to back him at 2/1, 7/1, 10/1… well he’s now the 15/1 long shot…  

Race for Second Place

RACE-FOR-SECOND-PLACE

Most Labour MPs are looking forward to their new quasi-Marxist overlord being installed when they return from their holidays. Apart that is from those involved in the campaign teams for Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. They still publicly cling on to the the hope that the bookies and pollsters are wrong. Again.

More likely their battle is for second place. The arguments for Yvette are that she will get most of Kendall’s second preferences and that Burnham has lost left-wing support to Corbyn so may come third on first preferences. Meaning she will pick-up all the anti-Corbyn votes when Burnham is eliminated. Assuming there are actually enough…

“No chance” say Burnham insiders. Most of Liz’s big supporters have declared for Andy – there are rumours that the likes of John Woodcock* – despite having branded Andy “Continuity Miliband” – have been promised Shadow Cabinet jobs for support. One Burnham supporter told Guido

Yvette’s consistently third in Jeremy’s, Andy’s and Liz’s voter ID. That’s why she looks so desperate. Yvette will finish third but her votes will end up selecting the winner. Just like her husband did in 2010. Yvette, by bitching and bullying the other candidates, has nowhere to go. Soft Corbyn supporters won’t go to her because she slagged him off and she’ll get little from Andy’s supporters. Liz votes is all she can get and she won’t get enough to overtake Andy. Our strategy all along was to be respectful of the members choice. OK he’s flipped a bit but he’s mostly stuck to it. He’s still worth a flutter at 4-1…

Not sure Guido would recommend that bet…

UPDATE: Kendall supporter hits back “the reason Liz backers are second preferencing Andy is nothing to do with promise of Shadow Cabinet jobs. It’s because of all the smears from Roger Baker and Luke Holland on Yvette’s campaign. Childlessness, adultery etc. they’d rather vote for flip floppy Andy who is a nice guy than nasty Brownite machine Yvette.”

*Denied.

Punters Say #JezWeCan

It is happening…

UPDATE: Ladbrokes odds:

Jeremy Corbyn 10/11
Andy Burnham 2/1
Yvette Cooper 11/4
Liz Kendall 50/1

Conflicted Over Corbyn

lay-corbyn

Guido is conflicted. On the one hand, a Labour Party led by Comrade Corbyn would be a source of much merriment and material. On on the other hand, believing that the majority of the Labour rank and file have not gone mad and that peak Corbyn will pass, Guido has been laying him on Betfair. If you really think Corbyn can do it, Guido is happy to take your money…

Cooper Now Ahead of Burnham Again

lab-dex

Yvette seems to have decided to shift her rhetoric leftwards and become the no-change candidate, re-endorsing the 50p tax rate, aspiration-crushing Mansion taxes and even arguing against the £23,000 benefits cap for Londoners – despite there being plenty of jobs available in London. As Burnham spins his love of business and bashes benefits-for-nothing, Yvette is telling Labour activists what they want to hear. Guido frankly thinks her third placed 6/1 long odds don’t make sense…

Just four more nominations will take Yvette Cooper to the final round…

Send news of new declarations to team@order-order.com.

Happy Warrior Wins!

The 3:35 at Newton Abbot:

Will it be the only thing he wins today?

Miliband’s Evasiveness on SNP Getting Cut Through

ONE-DOES-NOT

The polling evidence and anecdotal reports from the doorstep suggesting the need for Miliband to do a deal with the SNP is getting cut through to voters has got Tory morale up. Miliband’s claims that he won’t do a deal are widely disbelieved, because voters can see from the polls that would mean he would not be going to Downing Street. Betting on the Tories being the biggest party gets you a 20% return on your money by Friday down at Ladbrokes…

10 Days Until Dan Hodges Streaks Naked Down Whitehall

Back in 2012 renowned political soothsayer Dan Hodges made this now infamous vow:

We’ll be counting down until the event, presumably taking place anytime from Friday, May 8 onwards.

dileo

Guido also has a bet on with Dan that Douglas Carswell will be re-elected. Safe.

If UKIP poll above 6% in ten days’ time, there are going to be a lot of confused tourists in Westminster…

Damian McBride: My 20/1 solution to the three-pipe problem that is the next DPM

Sponsored post

800x400_Damian_Mcbride_020415v2[1]

Former political spin-doctor and pub quiz enthusiast Damian McBride takes you through the runners for the post of Deputy Prime Minister with the latest odds from Paddy Power.

If you think the outcome of the election is difficult to call, just take a look at Paddy’s superb new market on the identity of the next Deputy Prime Minister.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting odds in each seat and which ones are going to change hands, as well as projecting the national picture based on the insight from the turf accountants.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Flood of Pre-Speech Bets on Clegg to Quit

As Clegg decides what he is going to wear for his speech at 1pm, Paddy Power have slashed the odds on him to announce he will quit as LibDem leader before the election:

This comes on the back of an element of stirring last night:

[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

We Had An Edge

demos

Guido feels he had a bit of an unfair edge in the Demos / DeHavilland fantasy politics conference season game when it came to the “biggest own goal of conference season” category. Still it’s not over yet, even if hardly anyone is going to LibDem conference…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Paddy Power: Clacton Carswell Betting

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the Euro elections? Guido studies the form and gives his take on the Clacton by-election over at the Paddy Power Blog[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Ruffley Odds On To Resign

ruffley

Paddy Power have opened a book on whether or not David Ruffley will make it to the general election as a Tory MP:

Ruffley WILL be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 5/4

Ruffley WON’T be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 4/7

Get your bets on here before the odds shorten…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Politically Correct Chris Smith Censors Advert

You might have thought Environment Agency boss Chris Smith would be concentrating on the floods but no, today he is busy with his other far more important quango job in charge of the Advertising Standards Authority. Smith’s censorious bunch of self-appointed bureaucrats have made yet another politically correct judgement in an area they should not go into.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

David David responds when asked if he’s confident he can make a success of Brexit:

“Why on earth could it go wrong?”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Seamus Officially Leaves Guardian Seamus Officially Leaves Guardian
Article 50 Splits Shadow Cabinet Article 50 Splits Shadow Cabinet
Revenge Porn Momentum Candidate Quits Revenge Porn Momentum Candidate Quits
Red Len’s Hospitality Hypocrisy Red Len’s Hospitality Hypocrisy
Momentum Man is Porn Baron Momentum Man is Porn Baron
PMQs Sketch – Labour MPs Googling Museum Directorships PMQs Sketch – Labour MPs Googling Museum Directorships
NEC Fudges Danczuk Decision NEC Fudges Danczuk Decision
Investigation: Wrecking Peers in Pay of Unis Investigation: Wrecking Peers in Pay of Unis
Bromentum: All Male Shortlist Bromentum: All Male Shortlist
Nuttall Set to Stand in Stoke Nuttall Set to Stand in Stoke
One Line Whip As Whips On A Jolly One Line Whip As Whips On A Jolly
Leaving The Protectionist Union Leaving The Protectionist Union
Labour Drops Student Anti-Semitism Probe Labour Drops Student Anti-Semitism Probe
Israeli “Plot”: Latest Israeli “Plot”: Latest
Video: Putin on Russian Prostitutes Video: Putin on Russian Prostitutes
New European: Leave Voters “Lager Louts” New European: Leave Voters “Lager Louts”
Sion Simon Deletes Pro Remain Statement Sion Simon Deletes Pro Remain Statement
John Woodcock’s Fake News John Woodcock’s Fake News
May’s Brexit Plan – Full Text of Speech May’s Brexit Plan – Full Text of Speech