If it feels like things have come to a halt in Westminster as we await Sue Gray’s report, Guido has bad news. Punters on Smarkets are betting that we won’t see the report this week. The implied probability that it will be next week is some 70%. “Gray Ja Vu.”
To help pass the time amuse yourself with the wit of the trending #SueGrayDay. For the record, Guido is betting it will be Monday…
Vicki Young has this evening confirmed the rumour that she has not applied to replace Laura Kuenssberg as the BBC’s Political Editor.
Been getting lots of nice messages about #BBC Political Editor job so wanted to let you all know that for personal reasons I won’t be applying. But look forward to supporting whoever gets this incredible role.
— Vicki Young (@BBCVickiYoung) January 16, 2022
Despite being favourite and tipped by Andrew Marr no less – “I think Vicki Young, the current deputy political editor should get it, I think she would be brilliant, she is a real talent and it would be great to see her in the job” – she has decided not to go for one of the highest pressure jobs in political reporting.
Guido has put a few quid on Alex Forsyth, currently the BBC’s Political Correspondent. She’s the front running woman at 10/1 at the bookies. Worth a flutter…
Online sports betting has grown dramatically in popularity in recent times, and it does not look like this trend will stop increasing any time soon, but why is such a rapid increase in sports betting happening?
There is no getting away from Coronavirus, every time you turn on the TV or radio you will hear about it. There is no doubt that it has changed a lot of things in society over the last couple of years. Where and when we go out, how we celebrate Christmas, and even who we can invite into our homes.
At some point during the last two years, we have all been sitting at home, alone, trying to find some way of entertaining ourselves. Many people have turned to online sports betting as a way of relieving the boredom and bringing some excitement back into their lives in an otherwise bleak period.
Not being able to go out to the betting shop or have a day at the races has meant that people have had to stay in to bet, and many people have found that they quite enjoy this. Whether they fancy a last-minute flutter on the 3.30 pm from Kempton Park or they like the look of the new Arsenal lineup, people have been enjoying not having to leave the house to place a bet and this has become the usual way of doing things. This rise in online sports betting looks as if it is here to stay just for the convenience it brings.
A lot of people have more time on their hands than they have in the past. The rise of the work-from-home culture does not look as if it will diminish any time soon with many people now stating that they would not be prepared to take a new job if they didn’t get this flexibility. This has meant the end to the long commute to work and back and people have more time to look at form and place bets. Studying form is an important part of the betting process for online sports as it can allow you to work out the likely outcome. You need more time to do this than you would to play an online casino for example. Hence, the rise of online sports betting.
The Information Commissioner’s Office has announced that as part of their pursuit of a “Single View of the Customer” (SVoC), it is their intention that all “behavioural data” of gamblers will be shared from a centralised store. The genesis of the SVoC, which began in November 2020, was to ensure bookies and the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) together with the Gambling Commission had an overview of customer data, which would help identify problem gamblers before they become an issue. Why this role has fallen to the Information Commissioner* is not clear to Guido.
In summary:
The SVoC plan poses a clear and unprecedented level of privacy infringement. Bookies will be forced to share personal data with government agencies, including: how much is deposited, where people live, names, addresses. This will develop into the government having the power to oversee credit-referenced data and, ultimately, decide if the person can gamble. Regular gamblers, like the Queen, will have to be on the government’s gamblers’ register just to have a flutter on the Derby.
There is a question about the safety of the incredibly sensitive data on the register – which would be an incredibly valuable marketing resource for unscrupulous, unregulated online operators. The government has not shown itself to be a reliable guardian of personal data.
If this totalitarian piece of social control becomes a reality, where does it end? Pub-goers on a drinkers’ register to ascertain if they are problem drinkers? Supermarket cash tills linked to store loyalty cards blocking the purchase of sugary products for the overweight? Just because we have the technology to do it, doesn’t mean it is in the wider public interest. The small minority of problem gamblers do not make it in the public interest to heavily regulate the 99% of people who don’t have a gambling problem.
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Expectations management by both Labour and the Tories sees them both privately spinning that it is on a knife edge that they fear they could lose or expect to lose respectively. Betting markets were neck and neck until a few weeks ago. Punters seem to think the Tories could steal it. A second visit to Hartlepool by the PM does suggest he is happy to own the outcome…
UPDATE: A recount shows this is the PM’s third trip. Despite No. 10 doing expectation management, it sounds like Tories on the ground are gaining confidence.
UPDATE II (21:50): Boris rallies the troops in a classic expectations management moment:
And I want to stress that a lot of people are talking about Hartlepool – I have just been there.
‘I think it’s important for people to understand this is not a seat that Conservatives have ever held.
‘This is the stamping ground of Peter Mandelson.
‘It’s very important for everybody to be aware of the deep psephological reality, it’s a massive, massive challenge, it would be a quite extraordinary thing in my view if that were to happen [a Conservative majority] – but that doesn’t mean that we’re not fighting for every single vote.’
