Stoke-on-Trent Likely to Be Fierce 4-Way Fight

5,179 votes separate Labour and UKIP in Tristram’s Stoke-on-Trent Central constituency. It is a Leave constituency (69.4%) which gives UKIP a strong boost. The Tories will fight – more to deny UKIP another seat in parliament than to beat Labour. Labour losing the seat would destabilise Corbyn all over again. 2590 votes switching from Labour will cost them the seat. The LibDems are having a good run and will hoover up left-of-centre Remain voters, potentially giving the seat to either the Tories or UKIP. This is likely to be an intensely fought 4-way fight…

Paddy Power make it 2/7 that Labour retain the seat, with UKIP on 4/1, Tories (9/1) and Lib Dems (20/1). With a low-turnout by-election the UKIP and Tory prices look attractive and worth a flutter

Expensive Lunch With Farage

Never let it be said that Guido doesn’t keep his word. His bet against Trump had to be settled. Lunch was no PFL – only a two bottler of a reasonable premier grand cru – Guido had to catch a flight and Nigel is doing Question Time tonight. In the circumstances Nige’ picked up the tab…

Bet Against Banks Leaving

bank-of-guido-cheque

Anthony Browne of the British Bankers Association is a deservedly well paid lobbyist on behalf the industry. He earned his crust this weekend by getting the Observer’s front page splash:

observer-brexit

The lurid claim made in the first line is that

“Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.”

This echoes the claims made during the referendum campaign – claims which included that Britain will go into immediate recession this year if we dared to vote to leave the EU. Guido tried to bet anyone of the 71% of City economists who made that claim £1,000 that there would be no recession in 2016. Not one economist him up on the wager. So Guido’s new offer is to Anthony: £1000 says that not one leading bank will give up its UK banking licence next year to relocate to the EU.

Winnings to charity. Well Anthony, do we have a bet?

UKIP Leadership State of Play

runners-riders-with-coburn2

With Steven Woolfe out and more candidates throwing their hats into the ring, Guido brings you an update on the UKIP leadership race:

Suzanne Evans: Quietly gathering signatures for her nomination. Her suspension has lapsed, she should be a member in good standing for 28 days (we think) and thus eligible. Bookies’ favourite. Will her closeness to the Farage-hating Carswell faction cost her with the grassroots?

Paul Nuttall: Other candidates fear Nuttall will win if he stands. This Telegraph article sounds like he wants it. Though there is no noticeable effort to gather signatures, he didn’t want to run last time and will be asking himself if it’s really worth it. Dithering or not bothering at all?

Raheem Kassam: Loudly gathering the necessary signatures. Has been campaigning hard online and thinks he has enough signatures to submit the paperwork on Sunday. If Nuttall doesn’t run there is a possibility Raheem could actually do it. His price to win is tighter than Trump’s!

Peter Whittle: UKIP’s London mayoral candidate is popular in the capital. While campaigning in Witney he appeared on one of Kassam’s campaign videos and even said his rival’s slogan: “Make UKIP Great Again”, though he tells Guido he is not on Team Raheem. Also quietly gathering signatures.

Bill Etheridge: Said he’d stand unless there was somebody he could back 100%. Accused of cheating by his fiancee. Has been round the rubber chicken circuit.

David Kurten: Lower profile, tried to be nominated as UKIP’s mayoral candidate with a false London address. When Breitbart asked him how he responded to allegations of racism in UKIP he replied: “UKIP isn’t racist, I love white people!”

Suzanne, Nuttall and Raheem are the frontrunners…

Paddy Power Paying Out On Hillary Win

paddypower-clinton

This gutsy call sees one of Europe’s largest betting companies put their neck on the line for over $1,000,000. Prior to paying out, the former First Lady’s odds fell to a low 2/11 (84.6 per cent chance of winning) and over the past week Paddy Power have seen a flood of money on Clinton.

Guido’s Paddy Power bookie says:

‘Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances now look as patchy as his tan. Recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100 per cent correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House.

Should Trump upset the odds and win it will trigger the biggest political payout in bookmaking history and leave Paddy Power with some very expensive egg on its face. They are still taking other US election bets

Check the small print on the bet terms here.

Suzanne Evans Bookies’ New Front Runner

ukiprunnersriders

Above shows the latest odds from the bookies courtesy of Betdata.io. In a situation that is very fluid the betting markets are probably the best place to gain insight into the candidate’s support – real money rather than spin. Woolfe pulling out is good for Kassam, his chances have since shot up, with a lot of his Faragist support going to Raheem. He’s running a characteristically energetic campaign online.

Suzanne Evans is the bookies’ favourite and the truth of that position is bolstered by YouGov polling:

yougov-ukip-poll

This situation will change rapidly. The YouGov polling above was done before Woolfe had quit and Kassam had declared. It is still unclear if Nuttall is definitely running. Suzanne has not exactly been campaigning hard having only had it confirmed yesterday by the UKIP NEC that she could be a candidate. Nominations close on Halloween, the full horror show finishes on November 28…

High Court Judge Could Crown Oily Leader

judge-quill

Lawyers for Labour donor Michael Foster are in the High Court today to argue that Labour’s NEC was wrong to rule that Corbyn did not need the backing of 51 parliamentarians to become a candidate in the leadership contest. If the judge rules against Corbyn, Oily Smith could become Labour’s leader without a single rank and file member’s vote being cast…

Corbynistas have briefed PoliticsHome that the Procedures Committee – including Tom Watson – were told Corbyn wants to call a halt to the process if today’s court case goes against him. The Procedures Committee is not controlled by Corbynistas. The betting markets currently have Oily at 4/1, does that price accurately reflect the prospects of a judge ruling against Corbyn?

Farage Hasn’t Collected His Winnings

Having waited 23 years to win independence Nigel Farage may not be in much of a rush to collect on his bet on Brexit from Ladbrokes. He has won £2,500 on his £1,000 at 5/2 bet on Leave.

The bookies are bemused that he hasn’t collected. Perhaps Nigel is too busy enjoying a round of celebratory PFLs…

Labour Leadership Game On

bets

Guido put these bets on at William Hill on October 4, last year, shortly after the Labour Party conference. Now the odds are much shorter with Tom Watson 7/2 and John McDonnell 7/1. Place your bets…

No Takers on Ex-Greenpeace President’s $100,000 Climate Bet

In the wake of December’s Paris climate agreement, environmental scientist and Greenpeace co-founder and President Dr Patrick Moore offered a stonker of a bet:

With a $100 billion climate fund backing 188 nations’ commitments to cut greenhouse gas levels – including a minimum 40% cut from the EU – this bet seems like a sure investment for eco-warriors with cash to burn.

But more than a month later, nobody has taken up Dr Moore’s offer. Do the climate lobby not have faith in the “world’s greatest diplomatic success” to have a flutter?

Ken Predicts McDonnell Will Be Next Labour Leader

In another bizarre intervention Ken Livingstone has predicted on Putin’s Russia Today that John McDonnell will succeed Jeremy Corbyn should the Labour leader have a stroke or get “pushed under a bus driven by Boris Johnson”Well at least it won’t be a bendy bus…

Coincidently Guido has £1,000 riding on McDonnell being next Labour leader. No rush…

Biden Back in the Race?

Sponsored Postoinb

Biden his time? How Joe is back in the race for the Democratic nomination (but Paddy Power could get tanked by Trump).

Paddy Power politics trader Stephanie Anderson reveals the state of the latest betting and says that Donald Trump is now the worst result in the book for Paddy Power…

Read more on the Paddy Power Blog.

Dan Explains His Streak

Hodges “Streaks” Down Whitehall

The going was wet and it was a dark dawn for the “Dan Hodges Streak Down Whitehall Charity Stakes”, the forfeit for having lost his bet that UKIP would get less than 6% of the vote in the general election:

Ladbrokes were there and took £20 from Guido that he would not complete at 25/1:

There was a bit of a “Stewards Inquiry” given there was no sign of either a Farage mask or promised Hodges’ bare arse…

Despite Hodges refusing to sing “Land of Hope and Glory” at the finish, Guido paid up anyway and it was £20 to Elizabeth’s Legacy of Hope to add to another £100 bet that Hodges lost to Guido – 243 days ago. Hodges promises he is giving that betting loss to the charity as well… 

Sadiq’s Each Way Bet

SADIQ-GAMBLINGSadiq Khan is trying to make an issue of Zac’s stake in bookmakers Fitzdares – as disclosed in his register of interests ever since he became an MP. The claim being that Zac’s interest in gambling makes him unsuitable to be mayor of a city where the number of betting shops on our high streets has become a political issue. Unfortunately anti-gambling Sadiq previously voted to introduce super casinos to the UK’s cities… 

Sadiq is currently 4/5 favourite by a sliver at the bookies over Zac at 11/10. Guido recommends you hold on to your money for now, those odds could change… 

Exit Europe Now Favourite With Bookies

Capture

… By ‘Exit Europe’ Guido is of course referring to the horse running the 17:40 at Kempton Park tonight, which is the favourite at odds of 11/2. Eagle-eyed readers will have spotted his trainer and owner is none other than UKIP treasurer Andrew Reid. Stay tuned for the result…

UPDATE: He’s only gone and won it. One member of the Guy Newsroom is very happy having cleaned up. A good omen for Brexit?

UPDATE II: Here’s the action replay:

To any readers who had a punt on Guido’s tip, drinks on you…

Voting Has Now Closed, Betting Remains Open

corbyn-bets

Guido managed to reverse his bets on Corbyn in time and now stands to profit if #JezWeCan turns into #JezWeDid. Though it might be a little more expensive if Harriet Harman is brought back out of retirement. Andy Fandies have been telling Guido to back him at 2/1, 7/1, 10/1… well he’s now the 15/1 long shot…  

Race for Second Place

RACE-FOR-SECOND-PLACE

Most Labour MPs are looking forward to their new quasi-Marxist overlord being installed when they return from their holidays. Apart that is from those involved in the campaign teams for Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. They still publicly cling on to the the hope that the bookies and pollsters are wrong. Again.

More likely their battle is for second place. The arguments for Yvette are that she will get most of Kendall’s second preferences and that Burnham has lost left-wing support to Corbyn so may come third on first preferences. Meaning she will pick-up all the anti-Corbyn votes when Burnham is eliminated. Assuming there are actually enough…

“No chance” say Burnham insiders. Most of Liz’s big supporters have declared for Andy – there are rumours that the likes of John Woodcock* – despite having branded Andy “Continuity Miliband” – have been promised Shadow Cabinet jobs for support. One Burnham supporter told Guido

Yvette’s consistently third in Jeremy’s, Andy’s and Liz’s voter ID. That’s why she looks so desperate. Yvette will finish third but her votes will end up selecting the winner. Just like her husband did in 2010. Yvette, by bitching and bullying the other candidates, has nowhere to go. Soft Corbyn supporters won’t go to her because she slagged him off and she’ll get little from Andy’s supporters. Liz votes is all she can get and she won’t get enough to overtake Andy. Our strategy all along was to be respectful of the members choice. OK he’s flipped a bit but he’s mostly stuck to it. He’s still worth a flutter at 4-1…

Not sure Guido would recommend that bet…

UPDATE: Kendall supporter hits back “the reason Liz backers are second preferencing Andy is nothing to do with promise of Shadow Cabinet jobs. It’s because of all the smears from Roger Baker and Luke Holland on Yvette’s campaign. Childlessness, adultery etc. they’d rather vote for flip floppy Andy who is a nice guy than nasty Brownite machine Yvette.”

*Denied.

Punters Say #JezWeCan

It is happening…

UPDATE: Ladbrokes odds:

Jeremy Corbyn 10/11
Andy Burnham 2/1
Yvette Cooper 11/4
Liz Kendall 50/1

Conflicted Over Corbyn

lay-corbyn

Guido is conflicted. On the one hand, a Labour Party led by Comrade Corbyn would be a source of much merriment and material. On on the other hand, believing that the majority of the Labour rank and file have not gone mad and that peak Corbyn will pass, Guido has been laying him on Betfair.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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