Those Banks Twitter Direct Message Leaks

For the record, and sorry to disappoint Carole and the rest of the conspiracy theorists, the leak of the direct messages which reveals Guido’s editor arranging to pay £10,000 in cash to Arron Banks (N.B. Carole pay to, not get paid by) was hardly secret. It was paid after losing a bet, made in front of half of SW1’s finest at a Spectator party, that Trump would not become president in 2016. It was a painful night, as he lost the same bet with Nigel Farage.

Banks had arranged to have lunch to collect his winnings and he forgot. Which was irritating. The leaked DMs go as follows:

PS “Where we having lunch?”

AB “Hi there , I’m free most of Feb after the Washington trip .. Hertford Street!”

PS “You forgot to put today in the diary didn’t you? Have a wedge of £50s here…”

AB “What’s today!”

PS “The day you said we would have lunch.”

AB “Sorry then I’ve fucked up.”

PS “If you don’t want the £10k that’s fine with me….”

AB “I’ll check diary and let’s agree a day in Feb . I’m in the office tomorrow . Next week by the way is going to be Huge! Some interesting stuff going on in Washington”

When Banks later claimed publicly that the bet was unpaid it led to a testy exchange…

PS “As you well know I have had your £10,000 sitting in the bloody safe for months. Really resent your implication.”

AB “Believe it or I’m busy . Andy has tried repeatedly to get in touch – he will come and collect the cash .”

PS “He has my number and not called. Send him round. You should point out on Twitter that you fucked up, not me.”

Andy Wigmore eventually picked up the winnings in April 2017 and rubbed it in a little. As the characteristically accurate tweet above, hidden in plain sight, demonstrated. No roubles were involved, Carole…

The situation for other publications currently going through hacked DMs – of which their journalists were neither the sender or the recipient – is more complicated. There is no public interest defence for the hacking. There is no evidence of crimes – apart from the act of hacking. There is a lot of stuff that is embarrassing for politicians and journalists. Am looking at you, Ms Hyde…

mdi-timer 19 November 2019 @ 15:17 19 Nov 2019 @ 15:17 mdi-comment Comments
Rory-Mania Sees Punters Make Him Second Favourite

As Rory-mania grips the remainstream media and the country goes wild for him after he proposed setting up his own parliament, punters have flocked to back him, slashing his odds. Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been staked on him overnight making his implied probability of becoming Prime Minister 7%. Get your money on quick so Guido can take it off you….

mdi-timer 17 June 2019 @ 10:00 17 Jun 2019 @ 10:00 mdi-comment Comments
Punters Demand Stewards Inquiry Over May’s Resignation Date Bets

Quite a lot of chatter over at PoliticalBetting.com over the resignation date of Theresa May. Barring something dramatic happening Theresa May will formally resign as Leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow, as the above official statement from the party chairman and the 1922 Committee makes clear. Seems straightforward.

Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:

Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…

mdi-timer 6 June 2019 @ 12:35 6 Jun 2019 @ 12:35 mdi-comment Comments
Next Prime Minister: Who’s In The Running?

Guido has compiled some vital stats on betting odds, social media following, and constituency majority for those in the running to replace Theresa May, provided that Parliament passes the Withdrawal Agreement soon. In that situation, the contest will kick off as soon as 22nd May…

This morning Amber Rudd posted a video that looks suspiciously like a leadership pitch, Raab has been touting his hardliner credentials, while other contenders have stayed more muted. Boris isn’t the bookies favourite anymore but he is still the runaway favourite among the Tory membership. With two months to go before a theoretical contest there’s all to play for…

mdi-timer 28 March 2019 @ 13:15 28 Mar 2019 @ 13:15 mdi-comment Comments
Punters Think Brexit Will Be Delayed

Punters on Smarkets are betting that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29, 2019. The implied probability that it won’t happen on time is 80%.* Since May lost the meaningful vote punters and financial traders have been betting that Brexit will be softer and delayed. Guido thinks the odds are more evenly balanced…

*The probabilities don’t add up to 100% because of the over-round.

mdi-timer 24 January 2019 @ 15:20 24 Jan 2019 @ 15:20 mdi-comment Comments
Bookies Reckon Chief-Whip Will Survive

William Hill reckon Julian Smith is more likely to survive than be gone by Monday. Worth a flutter…

mdi-timer 19 July 2018 @ 16:00 19 Jul 2018 @ 16:00 mdi-comment Comments
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