Those Banks Twitter Direct Message Leaks

For the record, and sorry to disappoint Carole and the rest of the conspiracy theorists, the leak of the direct messages which reveals Guido’s editor arranging to pay £10,000 in cash to Arron Banks (N.B. Carole pay to, not get paid by) was hardly secret. It was paid after losing a bet, made in front of half of SW1’s finest at a Spectator party, that Trump would not become president in 2016. It was a painful night, as he lost the same bet with Nigel Farage.

Banks had arranged to have lunch to collect his winnings and he forgot. Which was irritating. The leaked DMs go as follows:

PS “Where we having lunch?”

AB “Hi there , I’m free most of Feb after the Washington trip .. Hertford Street!”

PS “You forgot to put today in the diary didn’t you? Have a wedge of £50s here…”

AB “What’s today!”

PS “The day you said we would have lunch.”

AB “Sorry then I’ve fucked up.”

PS “If you don’t want the £10k that’s fine with me….”

AB “I’ll check diary and let’s agree a day in Feb . I’m in the office tomorrow . Next week by the way is going to be Huge! Some interesting stuff going on in Washington”

When Banks later claimed publicly that the bet was unpaid it led to a testy exchange…

PS “As you well know I have had your £10,000 sitting in the bloody safe for months. Really resent your implication.”

AB “Believe it or I’m busy . Andy has tried repeatedly to get in touch – he will come and collect the cash .”

PS “He has my number and not called. Send him round. You should point out on Twitter that you fucked up, not me.”

Andy Wigmore eventually picked up the winnings in April 2017 and rubbed it in a little. As the characteristically accurate tweet above, hidden in plain sight, demonstrated. No roubles were involved, Carole…

The situation for other publications currently going through hacked DMs – of which their journalists were neither the sender or the recipient – is more complicated. There is no public interest defence for the hacking. There is no evidence of crimes – apart from the act of hacking. There is a lot of stuff that is embarrassing for politicians and journalists. Am looking at you, Ms Hyde…

Rory-Mania Sees Punters Make Him Second Favourite

As Rory-mania grips the remainstream media and the country goes wild for him after he proposed setting up his own parliament, punters have flocked to back him, slashing his odds. Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been staked on him overnight making his implied probability of becoming Prime Minister 7%. Get your money on quick so Guido can take it off you….

Punters Demand Stewards Inquiry Over May’s Resignation Date Bets

Quite a lot of chatter over at PoliticalBetting.com over the resignation date of Theresa May. Barring something dramatic happening Theresa May will formally resign as Leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow, as the above official statement from the party chairman and the 1922 Committee makes clear. Seems straightforward.

Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:

Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…

Next Prime Minister: Who’s In The Running?

Guido has compiled some vital stats on betting odds, social media following, and constituency majority for those in the running to replace Theresa May, provided that Parliament passes the Withdrawal Agreement soon. In that situation, the contest will kick off as soon as 22nd May…

This morning Amber Rudd posted a video that looks suspiciously like a leadership pitch, Raab has been touting his hardliner credentials, while other contenders have stayed more muted. Boris isn’t the bookies favourite anymore but he is still the runaway favourite among the Tory membership. With two months to go before a theoretical contest there’s all to play for…

Punters Think Brexit Will Be Delayed

Punters on Smarkets are betting that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29, 2019. The implied probability that it won’t happen on time is 80%.* Since May lost the meaningful vote punters and financial traders have been betting that Brexit will be softer and delayed. Guido thinks the odds are more evenly balanced…

*The probabilities don’t add up to 100% because of the over-round.

Bookies Reckon Chief-Whip Will Survive

William Hill reckon Julian Smith is more likely to survive than be gone by Monday. Worth a flutter…

Next PM Odds, Jezza Now Favourite

After yesterday’s kerfuffle it is interesting to see who punters think will be the next PM, after all they are putting their money on it. Jezza has now turned favourite in line with falling Tory poll ratings. On Guido’s chalkboard these are the latest odds available. Corbyn is now favourite ahead of previous favourites Sajid Javid and Jacob Rees-Mogg. The latter is now level pegging with Boris and Gove. Guido would prefer to bet against some of these names. In particular Mogg says he doesn’t want the job and in any event he would never be one of the two candidates chosen by Tory MPs to go before the membership…

Betting Supporting Racing

Fifth of November Massacre

The Sunday papers are gearing up for some career critical revelations. Ironically it will be the fifth of November on Sunday when the fireworks go off. In the Guido Fawkes newsroom we’re running a sweepstake on how many more MPs will be suspended or resigned from positions by the end of Monday… 

She’s Not Going On and On

On the weekend there was speculation that Theresa May would go in September 2019 after delivering Brexit in the spring and allowing an orderly Tory leadership succession campaign over that summer. In that context you can see why she said yesterday in Japan “I’m in this for the long term because there’s a long-term challenge for the United Kingdom”. Asked if she wanted to fight the next election, she said: “Yes.” Bear in mind that even a few months before the election she was telling us there would be no snap election.

In reality there is little to no chance she will lead the Tories in another general election. There is no appetite for it among Tory MPs or activists who all think she led a disastrous campaign, that she is wooden and robotic without any ability to empathise with voters. The only reason she is still leader is because nobody wants her job right now and Tory MPs fear a change of leader would risk the public wanting another general election before they have figured out how to deal with the Corbyn menace. There is the small matter of Labour also being ahead in the polls…

If she had given a date it would only kick off more speculation and more leadership jostling from Tory wannabees. Punters favour that she goes in the summer of 2019, barring mishap that seems about right. Guido is not convinced that May will have much choice in going beyond that date…

Mike Smithson’s LibDem Tip Letters

Letters are being sent out to voters in LibDem marginals across the country from former LibDem candidate Mike Smithson – of PoliticalBetting.com fame – explaining the “predictions” he has made based on “what the local data is telling” him. Guido has seen evidence of the missives hitting doormats in Cambridge, East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam. Wherever they arrive, “the data” outlined in Smithson’s letters always points to voting tactically in support of the Lib Dems. What a shocker!

Will his forecasts do better than Guido’s predictions for Paddy Power’s punters

UPDATE: And another tip…

Campaign Report: 10 Days to Go

The choice is clear: low taxes with Theresa May or higher taxes with Jeremy Corbyn.

The choice at this election: Labour’s Brexit deal which puts jobs first, or a Tory Brexit for big business.

May’s approach to Brexit is a threat to national security.

Tories need to come clean on social care cap before election.

Launching our disability manifesto – highlighting the daily struggle disabled people continue to face & demanding empowerment for them.

June 8th is a choice. Let the Tories away with cuts to pensions or a strong voice for Scotland.

Not a lot really. Normal people enjoying the Bank Holiday.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 43% and Labour on 36%, giving the Tories a 7 point lead. Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 9%, with UKIP on 4%. Votes for other parties stand at 7%.

Campaign Report: 13 Days to Go

It is absolutely monstrous that Corbyn has attempted to justify or legitimise the actions of terrorists.

British foreign policy is to blame for terrorist attacks on the UK. A Labour vote is a vote against foreign interventionism.

Labour are wrong to make a political point out of the Manchester terror attack.

If the Tories got their way we would have ended up in Syria now, and it would have been even worse.

Corbyn is right that failed Western intervention has caused instability. Green MPs will push for a truly ethical foreign policy – and seriously scrutinise the march to war of any government.

The only people to blame for the bombing are the man who carried it out and anybody else who aided and abetted him, but we must have a proper debate about foreign policy.

Corbyn blames British foreign policy for the Manchester bombing.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

Best Prime Minister: T. May: 45% (-1) J. Corbyn: 28% (+5) Not sure: 27% (-4) (YouGov/24 – 25 May, changes w/ 16 – 17 May).

Campaign Report: 14 Days to Go

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

Our Britain Together manifesto: reduce net migration to zero within five years, ban the burka, no tax rises and bring back the dark blue British passport.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.[…] Read the rest

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Campaign Report: 16 Days to Go

We are proposing the right funding model for social care and will ensure nobody has to sell their home to pay for care while alive, but we will consider introducing a cap.

The Tories offer nothing but uncertainty & fear for millions of older people with their dementia tax and social care u-turn.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: 20 Days to Go

Vote Conservative for a stronger Scotland, a stronger Britain & a prosperous future.

The Tory Triple Whammy for pensioners: no triple lock, no winter fuel allowance, pay for social care using your own home.

The Tory plans on care are a Dementia Tax.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: 21 Days to Go

Forward together to a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain that works for everyone.

The Tories are ditching pensioners. They stand to lose the pension guarantee, winter fuel allowance & control of their homes.

The nasty party is back! Theresa May has plans to scrap free school meals for Britain’s poorest children & a new death tax for the elderly.[…] Read the rest

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Campaign Report: 22 Days to Go

Labour’s multibillion black hole manifesto shows they cannot be trusted to keep the economy stable.

Philip Hammond has dodged questions on whether ordinary people would face tax hike under Tory government. We challenge him to a televised debate.

Our manifesto is to change Britain’s future – the power is in your hands.[…] Read the rest

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Campaign Report: 23 Days to Go

Today confirms what we already knew: Jeremy Corbyn’s nonsensical ideas simply don’t add up.

Our manifesto is for the many, not the few.

We promise budding entrepreneurs a £100-a-week allowance to help with living costs.

Labour’s plan to tackle the decline of pubs will do anything but.[…] Read the rest

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Campaign Report: 24 Days to Go

We will introduce the greatest extension of workers’ rights and protections of any Conservative government in history.

Our ‘New Deal’ for NHS staff: scrap the unfair pay cap, put safe staffing levels into law, bring back bursaries and fully fund education.[…] Read the rest

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