The bookies’ odds for the upcoming by-elections on Thursday give the Tories a 50% chance of holding onto Mid Bedfordshire. Though a leaked memo to Greg Hands seen by Sky News show that the Tories are spinning an expected “significant reduction” in vote share…
Labour is expected to pinch the Tamworth seat, with the bookies giving Labour a 72.99% likelihood of winning. According to the leaked memo, discontent for the Tories is a product of “unfavourable views” of Nadine Dorries, suggesting that blame will be laid at her door if they lose. Place your bets…
No matter what your favourite hobby or pastime is, you can be sure that many other people from all over the world share your interest. As such, you are part of a community. It hasn’t always been easy or even possible for members of these unique groups to meet up and discuss their particular passions. Well, it is now thanks to the internet.
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Back in 2020 Guido bet Anand Menon that by the time of the next election, UK GDP would be higher than France’s GDP – at the time they were neck and neck in GDP terms. The latest data suggests that unless France achieves double digit economic growth next year he’s buying dinner at a Michelin starred French restaurant…
“Poor Brexit Britain” both beats Eurozone member France on GDP per capita and has extended its lead in GDP terms from a $65 billion bigger economy to $287 billion bigger economy. Not something remainers and economists predicted…
*2022 UK $3,070,600,000,000 versus France 2,782,777,000,000
Rishi has fallen from hot favourite to his chances being third rated, with Penny as favourite and an overnight re-evaluation by punters seeing Liz move into the second favourite spot.
In the last month the implied probability of Keir Starmer resigning as Labour leader this year has risen from under 10% to over 30% as gamblers increasingly believe the Durham Police investigation could go badly for Starmer. We are due to hear from Durham Police this week as to if he has received a Fixed Penalty Notice.
'Yes'@Keir_Starmer confirms to @Peston that he is still planning to resign as Labour leader if he's fined by Durham Police for Covid violations pic.twitter.com/FSWoSsMSWp
— ITV News Politics (@ITVNewsPolitics) July 4, 2022
Yesterday Starmer reconfirmed to Robert Peston that he would resign if that happens…
The betting markets were thrown into chaos yesterday afternoon as Jon Sopel announced he was quitting the BBC to launch a new Global podcast with Emily Maitlis. Sopel had been in the lead ever since Vicky Young formally ruled herself out as a contender back in January – despite Guido’s top advice that a punt on Alex Forsyth would be a good move.
Forsyth has now taken a big lead in the race, with a 27% chance of nabbing the job versus Faisal Islam’s 9%. Amol Rajan and Sam Coates trail way behind on 4.4% and 1.3% respectively. Guido wonders if a surprise outsider could be on the cards? Applications closed on the 10th – can’t be long to wait now…
