Rory-Mania Sees Punters Make Him Second Favourite

As Rory-mania grips the remainstream media and the country goes wild for him after he proposed setting up his own parliament, punters have flocked to back him, slashing his odds. Hundreds of thousands of pounds have been staked on him overnight making his implied probability of becoming Prime Minister 7%. Get your money on quick so Guido can take it off you….

Punters Demand Stewards Inquiry Over May’s Resignation Date Bets

Quite a lot of chatter over at PoliticalBetting.com over the resignation date of Theresa May. Barring something dramatic happening Theresa May will formally resign as Leader of the Conservative Party tomorrow, as the above official statement from the party chairman and the 1922 Committee makes clear. Seems straightforward.

Over on the Betfair exchange some £3,057,129 has been staked on the exact date of her exit on the UK – Party Leaders– Exit Dates – Theresa May” market. The small print in the bet market’s rules states:

Punters seeking clarification have now been told that this means when she leaves Downing Street – which is something completely different altogether. May will remain the Prime Minister in Downing Street for another month or so after she has resigned even though she is no longer the party leader. Punters who understood the Conservative Party’s rules are not happy. It’s clear the bookies are confusing the party leadership and the premiership…

Next Prime Minister: Who’s In The Running?

Guido has compiled some vital stats on betting odds, social media following, and constituency majority for those in the running to replace Theresa May, provided that Parliament passes the Withdrawal Agreement soon. In that situation, the contest will kick off as soon as 22nd May…

This morning Amber Rudd posted a video that looks suspiciously like a leadership pitch, Raab has been touting his hardliner credentials, while other contenders have stayed more muted. Boris isn’t the bookies favourite anymore but he is still the runaway favourite among the Tory membership. With two months to go before a theoretical contest there’s all to play for…

Punters Think Brexit Will Be Delayed

Punters on Smarkets are betting that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29, 2019. The implied probability that it won’t happen on time is 80%.* Since May lost the meaningful vote punters and financial traders have been betting that Brexit will be softer and delayed. Guido thinks the odds are more evenly balanced…

*The probabilities don’t add up to 100% because of the over-round.

Bookies Reckon Chief-Whip Will Survive

William Hill reckon Julian Smith is more likely to survive than be gone by Monday. Worth a flutter…

Next PM Odds, Jezza Now Favourite

After yesterday’s kerfuffle it is interesting to see who punters think will be the next PM, after all they are putting their money on it. Jezza has now turned favourite in line with falling Tory poll ratings. On Guido’s chalkboard these are the latest odds available. Corbyn is now favourite ahead of previous favourites Sajid Javid and Jacob Rees-Mogg. The latter is now level pegging with Boris and Gove. Guido would prefer to bet against some of these names. In particular Mogg says he doesn’t want the job and in any event he would never be one of the two candidates chosen by Tory MPs to go before the membership…

Betting Supporting Racing

Fifth of November Massacre

The Sunday papers are gearing up for some career critical revelations. Ironically it will be the fifth of November on Sunday when the fireworks go off. In the Guido Fawkes newsroom we’re running a sweepstake on how many more MPs will be suspended or resigned from positions by the end of Monday… 

She’s Not Going On and On

On the weekend there was speculation that Theresa May would go in September 2019 after delivering Brexit in the spring and allowing an orderly Tory leadership succession campaign over that summer. In that context you can see why she said yesterday in Japan “I’m in this for the long term because there’s a long-term challenge for the United Kingdom”. Asked if she wanted to fight the next election, she said: “Yes.” Bear in mind that even a few months before the election she was telling us there would be no snap election.

In reality there is little to no chance she will lead the Tories in another general election. There is no appetite for it among Tory MPs or activists who all think she led a disastrous campaign, that she is wooden and robotic without any ability to empathise with voters. The only reason she is still leader is because nobody wants her job right now and Tory MPs fear a change of leader would risk the public wanting another general election before they have figured out how to deal with the Corbyn menace. There is the small matter of Labour also being ahead in the polls…

If she had given a date it would only kick off more speculation and more leadership jostling from Tory wannabees. Punters favour that she goes in the summer of 2019, barring mishap that seems about right. Guido is not convinced that May will have much choice in going beyond that date…

Mike Smithson’s LibDem Tip Letters

Letters are being sent out to voters in LibDem marginals across the country from former LibDem candidate Mike Smithson – of PoliticalBetting.com fame – explaining the “predictions” he has made based on “what the local data is telling” him. Guido has seen evidence of the missives hitting doormats in Cambridge, East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam. Wherever they arrive, “the data” outlined in Smithson’s letters always points to voting tactically in support of the Lib Dems. What a shocker!

Will his forecasts do better than Guido’s predictions for Paddy Power’s punters

UPDATE: And another tip…

Campaign Report: 10 Days to Go

The choice is clear: low taxes with Theresa May or higher taxes with Jeremy Corbyn.

The choice at this election: Labour’s Brexit deal which puts jobs first, or a Tory Brexit for big business.

May’s approach to Brexit is a threat to national security.

Tories need to come clean on social care cap before election.

Launching our disability manifesto – highlighting the daily struggle disabled people continue to face & demanding empowerment for them.

June 8th is a choice. Let the Tories away with cuts to pensions or a strong voice for Scotland.

Not a lot really. Normal people enjoying the Bank Holiday.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 43% and Labour on 36%, giving the Tories a 7 point lead. Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 9%, with UKIP on 4%. Votes for other parties stand at 7%.

Campaign Report: 13 Days to Go

It is absolutely monstrous that Corbyn has attempted to justify or legitimise the actions of terrorists.

British foreign policy is to blame for terrorist attacks on the UK. A Labour vote is a vote against foreign interventionism.

Labour are wrong to make a political point out of the Manchester terror attack.

If the Tories got their way we would have ended up in Syria now, and it would have been even worse.

Corbyn is right that failed Western intervention has caused instability. Green MPs will push for a truly ethical foreign policy – and seriously scrutinise the march to war of any government.

The only people to blame for the bombing are the man who carried it out and anybody else who aided and abetted him, but we must have a proper debate about foreign policy.

Corbyn blames British foreign policy for the Manchester bombing.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

Best Prime Minister: T. May: 45% (-1) J. Corbyn: 28% (+5) Not sure: 27% (-4) (YouGov/24 – 25 May, changes w/ 16 – 17 May).

Campaign Report: 14 Days to Go

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

Our Britain Together manifesto: reduce net migration to zero within five years, ban the burka, no tax rises and bring back the dark blue British passport.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

Scotland is the most attractive place in the UK outside London for foreign direct investment.

Theresa May warns Trump over US leaks.

If you think Labour are going to lose 50 plus seats take the under 179 seats at 5/6.

Welsh Westminster voting intention: LAB: 44% (+9), CON: 34% (-7), PC: 9% (-2), LDEM: 6% (-1), UKIP: 5% (+1) (via @YouGov / 18 – 21 May).

Campaign Report: 16 Days to Go

We are proposing the right funding model for social care and will ensure nobody has to sell their home to pay for care while alive, but we will consider introducing a cap.

The Tories offer nothing but uncertainty & fear for millions of older people with their dementia tax and social care u-turn.

So much for strong & stable: May’s dementia tax meltdown bodes badly for Brexit talks.

Theresa May is more ‘weak and wobbly’ than ‘strong and stable’ after her u-turn.

Our manifesto is the Green Guarantee: an economy for everyone, a protected environment, a ratification referendum on Brexit.

In this election the choice is stark: progress or just the same old Tories.

“Weak and wobbly” Theresa May u-turns on social care.

If you think Jeremy Corbyn is on a roll and going to be Prime Minister After the General Election it is 6/1.

CON: 47% (-1) LAB: 33% (+5) LDEM: 9% (-1) UKIP: 4% (-2) GRN: 2% (-1) (via ICMResearch / 19-21 May).

Campaign Report: 20 Days to Go

Vote Conservative for a stronger Scotland, a stronger Britain & a prosperous future.

The Tory Triple Whammy for pensioners: no triple lock, no winter fuel allowance, pay for social care using your own home.

The Tory plans on care are a Dementia Tax. Theresa May is hitting the most vulnerable. We would cap care costs at £72,00.

The Tories are planning to unleash the biggest tax raid in history on pensioner households. UKIP will fight this just as hard as we are fighting Philip Hammond’s plan for a national insurance attack on the self-employed.

We are absolutely in favour of spending £13 billion on foreign aid.

Theresa May today confirmed Scotland’s voice will not be heard in Brexit talks.

Nothing in particular.

In Blaenau Gwent the bookies have Plaid Cymru at 8/1. On the ground Labour’s vote collapsed during the locals. That is good value as an outside bet.

Scottish independence voting intention: Yes: 39% (-1) No: 49% (-) (YouGov/ 15 – 18 May).

Campaign Report: 21 Days to Go

Forward together to a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain that works for everyone.

The Tories are ditching pensioners. They stand to lose the pension guarantee, winter fuel allowance & control of their homes.

The nasty party is back! Theresa May has plans to scrap free school meals for Britain’s poorest children & a new death tax for the elderly.

It’s official: Theresa’s Tories have become the Labour Party.

Theresa May’s plans undermine the welfare state. A caring country should invest in social care not put the burden on those in greatest need.

Whilst the Tories scrap their promise to pensioners, we’re standing up for them. Vote for the SNP on June 8th.

Theresa May launches her manifesto for “mainstream Britain“.

The Hanretty model says there is a 100% probability that LibDem Norman Lamb will lose his North Norfolk seat to the Tories. Currently 4/7 for Tory win.

CON: 49% (-) LAB: 34% (+8) LDEM: 7% (-6) GRN: 3% (+2) UKIP: 2% (-2) (via IpsosMori)

Campaign Report: 22 Days to Go

Labour’s multibillion black hole manifesto shows they cannot be trusted to keep the economy stable.

Philip Hammond has dodged questions on whether ordinary people would face tax hike under Tory government. We challenge him to a televised debate.

Our manifesto is to change Britain’s future – the power is in your hands.

George Osborne’s editorial shows the Tories can’t be trusted on immigration.

The LibDems celebrate trebling tuition fees in their manifesto but claim to be on the side of students. Free education is a right.

We won’t let the Tories trade away Scotland’s jobs.

LibDem manifesto, rift between May and Hammond.

The Hanretty model says there is a 100% probability that LibDem Norman Lamb will lose his North Norfolk seat to the Tories. Currently 4/7 for Tory win.

On the renewal of the trident submarine system: Scotland Only Support: 26% Oppose: 40% (via PanelBaseMD).

Campaign Report: 23 Days to Go

Today confirms what we already knew: Jeremy Corbyn’s nonsensical ideas simply don’t add up.

Our manifesto is for the many, not the few.

We promise budding entrepreneurs a £100-a-week allowance to help with living costs.

Labour’s plan to tackle the decline of pubs will do anything but.

Labour’s Manifesto: A big step forward on a fairer economy. Some good, some bad on climate change. Weak on Europe. Terrible on Trident.

Ten years of SNP government has built a better Scotland.

Labour unveils a £48.6 billion spending manifesto, to be funded from extra tax revenue.

The LibDems can huff puff in Vauxhall all they like. Kate Hoey is remaining: back her at 1/3 and cash in.

Westminster voting intention (Wales): CON 41% LAB 35% PC 11% LD 7% UKIP 4% (Con lead over Lab +7, from -10 at GE2015, YouGov).

Campaign Report: 24 Days to Go

We will introduce the greatest extension of workers’ rights and protections of any Conservative government in history.

Our ‘New Deal’ for NHS staff: scrap the unfair pay cap, put safe staffing levels into law, bring back bursaries and fully fund education.

We will remove the public sector pay cap and implement a fully-costed £48 billion package for the NHS.

We challenge the Tories to call off their planned NICs raid on the self-employed and show they are not just the party of the rich.

We want SATs and the academies programme scrapped.

We have an opportunity in this election, not to strengthen Theresa May’s hand, but strengthen Scotland’s hand.

May meets unhappy Cathy.Overall Majority Tories, 1/25, NOC 10/1, Labour 20/1, LibDem 150/1

Electorate: Hard Leavers 45%, Re-Leavers 23%, Hard Remainers 22% (YouGov, April 24 – May 05).

Campaign Report: 27 Days to Go


The clear choice: A leader who supports our armed forces or one who wants to abolish them? Corbyn & your security is too big a risk.

The best defence for Britain is a government actively engaged in seeking peaceful solutions to the world’s problems.[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Peter Mandelson tells Emma Barnett…

“I think that Jeremy Corbyn himself should search his conscience and ask himself whether he’s the best person to lead the Labour Party into the general election with the best chance of success for the party.”

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