At a swanky party in Mayfair last night celebrating Matthew Goodwin’s substack reaching 30,000 subscribers, the academic revealed his plan to launch a new political party. Is there anyone not intending to feast on the Tory corpse?
Goodwin said that when he gets 100,000 subscribers he’ll launch his party. He’s currently gaining subscribers at a rate of 2,000 per week – which times a launch nicely for after the general election. He says: “People are utterly sick of the big parties and desperately looking for an alternative. I want to allow the people, themselves, to provide that alternative.” Talk among guests was that Goodwin already has £15 million committed in funding – Guido notes that billionaire libertarian Peter Thiel was also in London last night…
Liz Truss in her capacity as Minister for Women and Equalities has appointed seven new members to the Social Mobility Commission board. Guido is pleasantly surprised by some of the names on the list.
The individuals appointed are: Matthew Goodwin, Dr Raghib Ali, Resham Kotecha, Ryan Henson, Rob Henderson, Parminder Kohli, and Rob Wilson. Goodwin is a particularly sound appointment. The team joins chair of the commission Katharine Birbalsingh, who was appointed in October, with their responsibilities including writing an annual report into social mobility across the UK, challenging employers over social mobility amongst the workforce, and providing advice to ministers on how to improve social mobility.
Other appointees’ CVs include:
- Raghib Ali: Doctor who showed Racism did not cause excess ethnic minority Covid deaths. See here:
- Resham Kotecha: Former Tory parliamentary candidate for the Tories and head of engagement for women2win.
- Ryan Henson: Former Tory parliamentary candidate and self-described ‘Conservative campaigner’
- Rob Henderson: Yale graduate, US military veteran and Cambridge PhD student who has lambasted ‘white privilege’
- Parminder Kohli: Shell oil executive. Unlike most people on quangos, might know a thing or two about creating jobs and attracting investment.
- Rob Wilson: Former Tory MP
Truss says:
“Everyone in the UK should have the freedom to reach their full potential. These appointments are a positive step forward for equality in this country as we strive to improve social mobility and ensure everyone has the chance to succeed. The combined expertise and experience of the new Commissioners will help the SMC to carry out its important work to ensure a person’s circumstances of birth do not determine outcomes in life.”
This may be a sign of things to come. Read the full announcement here.
A new paper written by academics Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath has revealed that the Conservatives “are now more popular with people on low incomes than high incomes.” While the Labour Party held a lead among low-income voters as recently as 2017, this disappeared in 2019…
In December’s election the Tories established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes, the first time in history the Tories have outpolled the Labour Party in this demographic. The Tories held a 9-point lead among those on high incomes, this lead grew to 15-points among low income voters making them the true people’s party…
“It’s going to be incredibly difficult for Labour to win voters back” says @GoodwinMJ #bbcsp pic.twitter.com/ySy3FW7DUx
— DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) February 12, 2017
Matthew Goodwin on the state of referendum polling…
“Once again, the latest opinion polls bring more evidence of an ‘enthusiasm gap’ that exists between Remainers and Leavers. It is the Brexiteers who consistently appear more committed to turning out on June 23rd. To give only one example, last week 72 per cent of voters who said they were planning to vote Leave said they were ‘absolutely certain to vote’. The equivalent figure among Remain voters? 63 per cent.
You can also see this problem for the Remain camp from another angle. According to the most recent poll by ICM, 83 per cent of Ukip voters, who spend their days dreaming of Brexit, say they are ‘certain to vote’. This compares to the notably lower figures of 67 per cent for the generally demoralised Liberal Democrat voters and 64 per cent of Labour voters, some of whom will still be confused about whether Jeremy Corbyn likes or loathes the European Union. This could be a very real problem for Remain.”
On Sky just now was a talking head “expert” who claimed “I was like every other analyst and everyone in the Westminster village”. Lorna Dunkley saw straight through him.
Whereas Guido will be enjoying a glass or two this evening after comfortably winning his bet – as tipped to blog readers – on UKIP to win more than 50 seats. Political academic and amateur clairvoyant Matthew Goodwin’s crystal ball was clearly faulty, despite the fact that he markets himself as an expert on UKIP. Inside UKIP circles he is widely detested, possibly because he writes punditry for the Guardian where he seeks to bracket UKIP with the BNP. Armed with his wealth of scholarly insight, Goodwin piped up and rubbished Guido’s tip yesterday:
@GuidoFawkes the smart money is on them not topping 50
— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 30, 2013
@GuidoFawkes show me where those 50 seats are coming from? I'm taking 15/8 at Ladbrokes for under 50
— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 30, 2013
Three days later and UKIP are set to win more than 100 seats. Goodwin is off doing the rounds of studios this afternoon talking about “UKIP, predictions and what happens next in British politics”. With pundits like him…
