Matthew Goodwin on the state of referendum polling…

“Once again, the latest opinion polls bring more evidence of an ‘enthusiasm gap’ that exists between Remainers and Leavers. It is the Brexiteers who consistently appear more committed to turning out on June 23rd. To give only one example, last week 72 per cent of voters who said they were planning to vote Leave said they were ‘absolutely certain to vote’. The equivalent figure among Remain voters? 63 per cent.

You can also see this problem for the Remain camp from another angle. According to the most recent poll by ICM, 83 per cent of Ukip voters, who spend their days dreaming of Brexit, say they are ‘certain to vote’. This compares to the notably lower figures of 67 per cent for the generally demoralised Liberal Democrat voters and 64 per cent of Labour voters, some of whom will still be confused about whether Jeremy Corbyn likes or loathes the European Union. This could be a very real problem for Remain.”