Polling Model Maps Anti-Growth Coalition by Constituency

Those wondering why Conservative backbenchers so often find themselves opposing pro-growth policies may well be in luck. In a recent Substack post, Professor Ben Ansell has run an MRP model to find levels of housebuilding support, which can then be mapped by constituency. In news that might only surprise Liz Truss, the main strongholds of the anti-growth coalition are the Conservative shires. Co-conspirators can see for themselves on this map, where housebuilding support is represented by constituency size.

Housebuilding support is concentrated in cities, Scotland and the red-wall – all the areas currently voting Labour. Ansell’s research also includes a warning for pro-growth Conservatives. Amongst voters currently not intending to vote at the next election, house support is far more alike to Conservatives – i.e. the swing voters most in reach for the Conservatives are NIMBYs.

The NIMBYist seats in the country, in order of support for house building are:

  • Wyre and Preston North – 16%
  • Louth and Horncastle – 18%
  • Christchurch – 20%
  • Mid Derbyshire – 20%
  • Castle Point – 20%

The most YIMBY Tory seat is Kensington, occupied by Felicity Buchan, which has 53.2% support for housebuilding. Meanwhile, Dianne Abbott holds that honour for Labour – the most YIMBY seat in the country with 66%. Guido is counting on them to lead the charge for growth…

mdi-timer 13 January 2023 @ 15:49 13 Jan 2023 @ 15:49 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Left’s Right to Protest Wrongs

Owen Jones is pinning the blame on the Tories for anti-monarchy protestors being threatened and arrested, claiming “peaceful protesters are currently being arrested and threatened by police under legislation introduced by the Tories which the left fought in the streets”. Owen is just factually incorrect to blame the Tories for the legislation. The widely reported arrest in Scotland came under Section 38 of the Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010, a law introduced under an SNP government supported by the Greens and LibDems, opposed by Labour and the Tories.

Owen’s new-found support for the right to protest comes as a pleasant surprise to Guido, given his prior position on protests he disagreed with:

To be fair to Owen, free speech flip-flops are common on the left. Zarah Sultana yesterday quite rightly argued “No-one should be arrested for just expressing republican views“, while previously voting for a bill with the intention of banning protests outside abortion clinics. Diane Abbott has also defended the right to protest, whilst voting for the same bill to ban those she disagrees with from protesting. The list of lefties picking and choosing on free speech is long…

mdi-timer 13 September 2022 @ 11:43 13 Sep 2022 @ 11:43 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Forde Report Denies Diane Abbott Cried in the Loos

The much-anticipated Forde report was finally published today, and to anyone not obsessed about Labour factions and Kremlinology it’s pretty much irrelevant, meaningless and changes nothing. The report provides a damning critique of the culture, antisemitism and factionalism within the Labour Party from 2014-19, which – until now – has been a complete secret. The report was sparked by the leaking of a report written by Labour staff in the wake of the EHCR antisemitism ruling, which was accused of being a Corbynite whitewash and selectively leaking out-of-touch staff WhatsApp messages to damage anti-Corbyn actors.

Flicking through the report, neither side comes out well. Owen Jones did a long thread covering all the Forde allegations that slammed the right of the party, an hour and a half after he predicted it would be a Starmerite whitewash – funny how things change. Both sides get accused of weaponising antisemitism against the other, and criticised “a culture of intellectual smugness which exists at the extremes of the political spectrum the party represents”. Seriously, this is really novel, groundbreaking stuff…

A particular highlight concerned an analysis of WhatsApp messages from the leaked report. This included messages from senior party staff reporting the former Shadow Home Secretary was spotted “crying in the loos” and later in a branch of Leon talking about leaking information to Michael Crick. Despite the prior leaked report interpreting these claims as factual, the Forde report finds “they are clearly not literal” and “do not relate to real sightings of Diane Abbott”. Guido’s more than happy to inform co-conspirators of the vile slurs against Diane’s impeccable character…

mdi-timer 19 July 2022 @ 17:08 19 Jul 2022 @ 17:08 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Michael Gove’s Furious Defence of Priti Patel

Gove obviously had his Weetabix this morning. Just a shame his Braveheart-esque defence of the Home Secretary was brought to a premature end by Sir Lindsay: “You can go on your rant, but you’re not going to rant on my watch.” Humbug.

mdi-timer 7 March 2022 @ 15:50 7 Mar 2022 @ 15:50 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Biden Matches Diane’s Geography Prowess

After Diane’s brain fade on PoliticsLive, Joe Biden joined her last night in mixing Ukraine up with another country. During his State of the Union address overnight the President vowed that Putin will never “gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people”. Watch Kamala mouth the correction behind him… 

mdi-timer 2 March 2022 @ 11:00 2 Mar 2022 @ 11:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Learn Geography With Diane Abbott

Some interesting geography from Diane on Politics Live this lunchtime as she came out with the foreign policy analysis:

“Abbott: one of the things that Putin has got wrong: he seemed to think that his tanks could roll in to Croatia

Coburn: You mean Ukraine?

Abbott: … into Ukraine…”

Other than that she sounded altogether less medicated than usual…

mdi-timer 1 March 2022 @ 17:07 1 Mar 2022 @ 17:07 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Previous Page Next Page