Boris Only Contender Winning Brexiteers Back to the Tories

With the Tory leadership race finally starting to hot up, a new Hanbury Strategy poll has looked at how the potential candidates fare with different sets of voters. Boris is the only contender to make 2017 Tory voters more likely to vote Tory next time round. Not a great result for the contenders Hanbury execs are (informally) advising, Raab places fourth while Hancock isn’t even included… 

The poll found Tory General Election voting intention had dropped to just 21%, well behind Labour on 30% and only just ahead of the Brexit Party on 19% (Change UK surged to 5th place with a whole 6%). Again, Boris was the only contender to make Brexit Party supporters more likely to vote Tory:

Interestingly, the poll also found that voters would be less likely to vote Labour if they backed a second referendum in all circumstances, 37% said they would be less likely to vote Labour if they did, compared to only 32% who said it was more likely. Bad luck Labour Remainers, Corbyn was right…

Saj Launches ‘Think Small’ at Centre for Policy Studies

Sajid Javid was the keynote speaker at the release of a report by the influential Centre for Policy Studies’ Nick King (a former Saj SpAd who’s now got a big role in his leadership campaign), entitled ‘Think Small’. It proposes a relatively minor reform to the way small and medium sized enterprises are taxed – proposing they should have the choice to replace corporation tax, business rates, VAT, and Employer’s National Insurance with one consolidated turnover tax, levied at a revenue neutral 12.5%. Much like the report’s proposals, The Sajid stopped short of revolutionary zeal…

Saj assiduously stuck to the Think Small motto, being sure to not stray outside of the box. Despite Boris declaring this lunchtime that he will stand, when asked after his speech if he was standing for leadership, Saj would only say that the Prime Minister is “very hard working” but “we’ll see what happens next.” Not so bold…

The message the Home Secretary attempted to get across was that the Tories have to “reclaim our position as the party of business” in an apparent jab at Boris. But seemingly Saj’s solution is only by means of administrative simplification. Saj will have to make a bigger pitch if he wants to cement his place as a Thatcherite candidate..

In an apparent attempt to boost his Thatcherite credentials, The Sajid’s speech made room for the admission that he “knows more about women’s clothing than any other male MP” (he used to work in his dad’s female clothing shop.) Remarks were also full of cheeky comparisons to the longest serving postwar PM and CPS co-founder, who like Saj lived above her father’s shop. The Sajid might have to be a little bolder on policy if he wants to fill those big boots…

Meet the Candidates: Team Saj

Guido brings you another one of the teams behind the Tory leadership hopefuls – this time it’s Sajid Javid who is hoping to come through the chaos as the compromise candidate. Sajid was flying high as the front-runner last summer. However his star has waned as Brexit has taken over the agenda. His unexpected decision to vote for remaining in the EU three years ago – despite once being an outspoken Eurosceptic – fatally undermined his hitherto Thatcherite brand with a substantial section of the Tory membership and will not be forgotten. Can ‘The Saj’ revitalise his leadership hopes now?

Sajid’s long-serving former SpAd Nick King is back and heavily involved, alongside his work at the Centre for Policy Studies. Sajid also has an able team of current SpAds behind him, including yet another Hanbury connection in the form of Olivia Robey as well as ex-ConservativeHome / ex-CCHQ operator Sam Coates… who very usefully knows the contours of the Tory rank and file well.

There’s also a Vote Leave connection – Sajid has snapped up former Vote Leave and TaxPayers’ Alliance Chief Executive Matthew Elliott who is providing informal advice at this stage. Guido understands that Team Saj has also recently been bolstered by the arrival of CCHQ’s former Head of Media Monitoring and meme guru Gareth Milner. Like Nick King he’s also splitting his time between Team Saj and the CPS…

On the Parliamentary side, Rob Halfon is coordinating support for Javid amongst MPs, while ministers Chris Skidmore and John Glen are also Saj supporters. Sajid will be hoping the Brexiteers take each other out, allowing him to come through as the compromise candidate with the best free marketeer credentials…


Social media support: Avid 4 Javid hasn’t quite hit the heights of Ready for Raab yet but has 218 loyal followers, Sajid himself has an impressive 112k followers and his Facebook has 14k.
Mainstream media support: Tim Montgomerie publicly declared his support for Javid last year, the Home Secretary will also be looking for support from law-and-order focused papers like the Daily Mail now they’ve gone soft on Brexit.
ConservativeHome members survey: 5.4% (5th)
YouGov public recognition: 35% (5th)
PaddyPower odds: 11/1 (5th=)

Boris Fends Off All Challengers in Latest Tory Run-Off Poll

ConservativeHome have done a fresh round of Tory leadership run-offs to see how different combinations of the final two candidates fare with the members in their survey. It’s bad news for Jeremy Hunt whose Brexiteer drag act has not fooled the membership – Hunt loses all four matchups. Sajid Javid doesn’t fare much better, only notching up one narrow 36%-35% win against Hunt…

Out of a maximum of 400 percentage points up for grabs the scorecard for and against was as above. Michael Gove gets a mixed reception among the members, he sees off Remainers Javid (44%-31%) and Hunt (43%-29%) but comfortably loses out to outspoken Brexiteers Dominic Raab (52%-36%) and Boris Johnson (57%-34%). Boris rules the roost, in the final run-off he holds off Raab by 7% (46%-39%). It’s a big change from the last set of run-offs when Boris was nowhere and it was a knife-edge result between Gove and Javid…

Sajid and Sadiq Under Pressure Over Failure to Tackle Protests

While the environmental protests over the last three days have generated plenty of amusement and most workers are thinking about the Easter break anyway, people are increasingly asking why the police response has been so feeble. Why are the police unable to stop Central London being brought to a halt for days by a tiny handful of protesters with a few yoga mats and tubes of glue?

The finger of blame is being pointed at Sajid Javid and Sadiq Khan – former Home Secretary David Blunkett takes aim at his successor in the Mail, challenging him why the “full force of the law” hasn’t been applied. Treasury PPS and fellow Tory MP Huw Merriman brands it a “national embarrassment” and says he has asked Javid to “put pressure on the police to bring this to an immediate halt”. Instead of dancing along with the protesters…

Sadiq Khan is also under fire from rank-and-file officers themselves for “aggravating” the protests with his tacit approval after saying “I share the passion of the protesters because it is a very important issue” rather than condemning them for breaking the law. The public is not impressed either. If they were protesting in favour of Brexit or another issue Sadiq didn’t agree with they would have been removed in no time, instead they’ve got free rein to continue their dance parties while Londoners suffer…

Child Protection is the Job of Parents Not ‘iPlod’

The proponents of the Online Harms White Paper are trying to frame it as a child protection and anti-terrorism measure. Guido is willing to accept that is the government’s intention and that it is under pressure from the newspaper industry to hit the global platforms. Almost every day News UK and Associated Newspapers titles run a shock horror story about Facebook or Twitter or one of the other social media platforms. Often it is focused on child protection – children committing suicide, children being groomed, children falling for scams, children seeing an advert for a high sugar product. Do not underestimate how much pressure this puts ministers under when there is a “something must be done” clamour.

According to the government the something that must be done is the creation of yet another quango, an online regulator. Dubbed by Toby Young “iPlod“.

Guido has no doubt as to the harms done by child sexual abuse or terrorist propaganda online, it is however already the case that these things are illegal. Introducing a new law will not change the enforcement problems, which go unaddressed in the White Paper. The best form of child protection is preventing your children having access to this material. Why does your 7 year-old child need a smart phone? Why is your daughter on Snapchat, an app originally designed to enable the sending of a quick nude picture that will selfie-destruct after a maximum of 10 seconds. New legal controls are no substitute for parental control.

The online harms that the White Paper has trouble defining include cyber-bullying and trolling, both of which it says are unacceptable. People being rude to one another online does not require a legislative response. The police have better things to do than arrest people for being rude on Twitter.

There is also the collateral damage to press freedom from a new regulator, Toby Young argues in tomorrow’s Spectator cover story that the White Paper if it became law “iPlod” would mean that any companies “that allow users to share or discover user-generated content or interact with each other online” will be “in scope” so that includes newspapers and magazines. This is arguably state regulation of the press by the back door and has no place in a free society. Sajid should be opposing it as vigorously as he opposed Labour’s attempts to set up a state press regulator, not championing it.

Tory Leadership Hopefuls: Who Are You?

We could be days away from a Tory leadership race if Theresa May loses a no confidence vote. The jostling for position on the Tory benches is becoming blatant. Leadership hopefuls are tapping up donors for support, assembling campaign teams and beaming as they glad-hand fellow MPs. With that in mind WPI Strategy commissioned a 2,000 head poll from Deltapoll with fieldwork done last week (25/26 March). They asked the public “Who would you recognise in the street?”

David Lidington would be recognised by 1 in 20 people – which seems on the high side. Liz Truss would be recognised by 1 in 14 people proving that not everyone is on Instagram. Dominic Raab will be disappointed that his brief profile raising period as Brexit Secretary means that 1 in 9 people claim they know his face. Then we get into potential leaders who do have some recognition with voters. Amber, Saj and Hunt are recognised by a quarter to a third of voters, Mogg (who is not running) and Gove are recognised by two fifths of voters. There is only one candidate who stands out with over three quarters of the public recognising him – Boris.

Sajid’s Amendment Confusion

The Home Secretary appeared quite surprised when taking questions from the Home Affairs Select Committee, when he learned that the Prime Minister had signalled opposition to the Costa amendment, which would guarantee EU citizens rights under no-deal. Especially as the Prime Minister had already guaranteed them…

Government sources tell Guido that Sajid is right on this one, and that they support the ambition of the amendment, although they haven’t yet revealed whether or not they will be backing Alberto Costa’s specific amendment. Backing it would be obvious decision. It is overwhelmingly likely to pass with or without Government support. Equivocating on this in the first place was a terrible call from the PM…

UPDATE: The Government is now formally backing the Costa amendment. After a pointless row and resignation

Boris Still Miles Ahead of Tory Leadership Rivals

The latest ConHome Tory leadership survey results are out, with Boris Johnson maintaining his commanding lead at the head of the pack. Boris sits comfortably on 26%, more than double his closest rival in Dominic Raab with 12%. Gove comes back in from the cold into third place after his barnstorming anti-Corbyn speech in Parliament last month.

The biggest surprise is much-vaunted contender Sajid Javid sliding down to fifth with only 7%. Outspoken Tory Remainers are even further behind, with Amber Rudd the highest ranked in 8th with just 4%. May is safe from a formal Tory challenge until December, but pressure for a more pro-Brexit leader will inevitably mount once the Article 50 process is finally over…

Sajid: I Am “Totally Against” a Customs Union

Firm line from Sajid against a customs union. It’s a “complete non-starter”…

Sajid: General Election is “Last Thing the Country Needs”

Sajid squashes renewed speculation that a general election could be on the cards this year, whether before or after the UK formally leaves the EU. A politics-weary country is unlikely to look kindly on the party that forces a fifth major vote in six years on them…

Saj Scraps Tens of Thousands Migration Target

The Home Secretary for the first time officially said this afternoon that there will be “no targets” for future migration numbers, but that the Government remains committed to bringing migration down to “sustainable levels.” The tens of thousands albatross, allegedly invented a decade ago live on air in a radio studio, looks like it is finally dead…

High Court Rules Saj Was Right to Share Evidence on Suspected ‘Isis Beatles’

This morning the High Court rejected a legal challenge against Home Secretary Sajid Javid’s decision to share evidence with the United States about two suspected ‘ISIS Beatles’, without first seeking assurances that they would be immune from facing the death penalty.

Saj, backed by then Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and PM Theresa May, shared over 600 witness statements with the US on El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey, who are said to have been part of the same ISIS cell as Jihadi John. This is a big slap down to the leftist protests at his decision over the summer. The High Court ruled in Saj’s favour on all five counts…

Sajid is the Top Choice of Tory Councillors

Survation have done something interesting, they have polled 862 Tory councillors on their preference for the next Tory leader. Using a run-off single transferable vote method they looked into who would win. First preferences gave a close lead for Sajid Javid of 150 to 142.

After transferring votes Sajid sucks up the majority of third-placed Hunt’s votes and wins decisively. This is an interesting exercise that doesn’t exactly mirror the actual Tory election process which has MPs select two candidates to put before the wider Tory membership. What it does show is that in an open field the race would likely be between Johnson & Javid. The survey reinforces the findings of the ConservativeHome surveys that it should be a two-horse race. Whether Tory MPs agree is another matter…

Watch Survation’s explainer video here.

ConHome Leader Survey: Boris Still Leading… Just

Sajid Javid continues to inch his way up in the estimations of Tory members, meanwhile Boris’ support has slipped by ten percentage points. Last Month Boris was on 30%, and David Davis on 6%. This month Boris falls to 19%, with DD soaring to third place on 13%. Michael Gove, who once topped the survey is now firmly in the also rans. The wider top ten includes the fresh faces of Penny Morduant, Liz Truss and James Cleverly. It’s a very wide field and there’s all to play for…

Sajid Javid Branded “House Muslim” at Event Addressed by Abbott & McDonnell

 

Sajid Javid was mockingly branded a “House Muslim” at a hard left ‘Stand Up To Racism’ event on Saturday. A speaker drew laughter from the audience as he called the Home Secretary “supposedly brown”:

“We have Sajid Javid – who is, you know, the House Muslim – who just cos he’s supposedly brown… and just because he has a Muslim-sounding name…”

A source in the room identified the speaker as Mustafa Al-Dabbagh, who was speaking on behalf of the Muslim Association of Britain. Other speakers addressing the event on Saturday included Diane Abbott, David Lammy and John McDonnell. Will they start by standing up to this kind of racially-charged derogatory language from a speaker with whom they shared a platform?

Saj: We Will Fight Hope



“We will fight hope… err… fight against hate, with hope…” Going well…

Tory Members Overwhelmingly Back Boris

Tory members still overwhelmingly back Boris for leader, the latest ConHome members survey has found, with the former Foreign Secretary and Brexit winner more than ten points ahead of his nearest rival, Sajid Javid.

After a muted Telegraph column from Boris today, all eyes will be on his big ‘Chuck Chequers’ speech to Tory conference, 1pm tomorrow…

Sajid: Boris “Absolutely Not” Islamophobic

Marr: Do you think [Boris] is Islamophobic?

Javid: No, absolutely not. Not in the slightest.

Sajid pours lukewarm to cold water on any talk of leadership…

Sajid: People Don’t Need to Worry About No Deal Brexit

Marr challenges the Home Secretary over some of the more colourful predictions in the Police’s No Deal document leaked to the Sunday Times. Sajid replies that “people don’t need to worry” because the Government will be prepared…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Seen Elsewhere



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Change UK MP Joan Ryan tells Change UK’s South West ‘rally’:

“Can everyone look at their hands please?”

*everyone holds out their hands in front them*

“That’s it, it’s there, the future is in your hands.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Farage Milkshaker Unmasked Farage Milkshaker Unmasked
ChUK Blame Game ChUK Blame Game
Angry Esler Angry Esler
Corbyn’s Gushing Praise for Anti-Semitic Book Corbyn’s Gushing Praise for Anti-Semitic Book