The Social Market Foundation, the ‘non-partisan’ think tank pushing John Healey to double Machine Games Duty in next week’s Budget, has been caught privately admitting that jobs will be hit by its proposals and the upsides of its tax hikes lack evidence. Catch up, lads…
A draft of its report, accidentally published with the staff’s internal comments still attached, shows SMF top brass conceding the tax would close venues, cost jobs, and hit bingo halls and seaside arcades. Their own director asked whether the jobs claims were overly optimistic…
The report, “Addressing the Harm”, calls for duty on Category B machines to double from 20% to 40%. SMF claims this would raise up to £458 million and somehow create jobs – their campaign is backed by Gordon Brown. SMF director Theo Bertram is a former SpAd to the gambling-obsessed ex-PM…
The draft says operators “may choose to close certain locations” and that “this could lead to job losses in the sector” before insisting the losses would be “more than offset” elsewhere. Bertram wrote in the margin:
“Is this overly optimistic? What’s the basis for the confidence that they will find jobs elsewhere?”
SMF Chief economist Gideon Salutin replied:
“You’re right, this does not guarantee the employee will find a job elsewhere, but it does show that employment across the country will grow. I believe the wording’s right here”
The report itself admits “we do not currently know how operators would respond to a tax increase.” The industry says 600 betting shops will have shut and 5,000 jobs will be gone by the end of 2026 after last year’s online tax rise. PaddyPower owner Flutter has just today axed 1,400…
SMF says limiting the hike to Category B machines would protect pubs. Asked whether it would still hit bingo and seaside arcades, Salutin replied: “Yes it would hit them”. Left out of the summary of the report…
On the much-disputed relationship between gambling and its supposed ‘harms’, Bertram warned colleagues “we need to be careful that we don’t overstate causality – the harms are associated”. Asked whether a causal link between machines and gambling-related crime was backed by the research, Salutin admitted: “Unclear, so I’ve changed it to correlation”. The £2.33 billion ‘harm’ figure survived anyway…
A line accusing the government of protecting gambling firms was flagged by Bertram as “maybe too strong for a HMT audience”. Salutin: “altered”. One reader in mind…
When Bertram warned the industry would point out the higher rate is already 25%, Salutin replied that it “brought in 500,000 last year. Neither James, me, nor Aveek can figure out where that 500,000 could have come from”. These are the experts telling the Chancellor how to tax the sector…
As for punters moving from supervised shops to the black market, Salutin waved it away as “a bogeyman”. Chump alert…
Read the draft report below:
Burnham is set to tell the UN General Assembly in his speech that Britain can be an “honest broker” in containing threats from Artificial Intelligence after King Charles publicly warned of its “existential dangers.” Burnham said the UK could sit between the United States and China – at risk of being wooed by AI doomerism…
He said: “We are, I think, uniquely positioned to play a leadership role on AI and it’s very clear to me that the G20 presidency gives us that opportunity.” No10 has briefed that Burnham will pitch himself as the Gordon Brown/2009 G20-style co-ordinator, but for AI. Oh boy…
Elsewhere Burnham will continue his ‘cost of living interventionism’ doctrine by asking Trump to end the Iran war quickly. Why hadn’t he thought of that?
The lads at the Social Market Foundation, “Britain’s leading cross-party think tank” led by ex-Gordon Brown SpAd Theo Bertram, have let the cat out of the bag with their new report on council tax and social care this week. Save the Labour votes…
A new report from the SMF argues that old age social care should be taken off councils and funded nationally,after which council tax should be reformed or abolished and replaced with another tax. Which would no doubt detonate another bomb in the economy…
The think tank says it’s not that simple, however, because London specifically gains least from nationalising social care thanks to its young population and strong tax base. It meanwhile loses most from council tax revaluation because its property values have risen furthest above 1991 levels. It argues that this makes its proposals a problem because… Labour would lose votes:
“London cannot be assumed to accept large losses simply because it has historically voted Labour: its electorate is diverse, high housing costs are widely felt, and voters can shift to other parties when policy cuts against their interests. The package therefore still requires equalisation, affordability protections and a credible national funding mechanism, but it turns two reforms repeatedly judged too difficult into a single, more coherent political offer.”
SMF insists that “we do not take sides in party political debates but work to inform people, of all parties and none, about how public policy can improve outcomes.” It spends large amounts of time pushing for Gordon Brown’s pet gambling taxation. The mask slips…
Gordon Brown hasn’t incurred any travel expenses in his ‘global’ role for Starmer. In fact, it looks like he hasn’t done much at all…
Brown was appointed the Prime Minister’s Special Reviewer on Global Finance and Cooperation on 9 May. Since then Guido’s FoI Unit has established he “hasn’t undertaken any travel in connection with his role” and doesn’t have any of his own staff. Cabinet Office business units help him out when “as and when their expertise are pertinent to the review” at no extra cost…
All Brown has been been given is:
Harriet Harman only took the laptop and phone for her fake role before she started calling for Starmer to resign on various podcasts – Labour loyalty for you. She doesn’t have a dedicated office either…
Downing Street has admitted Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman will not attend Cabinet in their unpaid, potemkin roles as ‘Special Envoy on Global Finance and Cooperation’ and Adviser on Women and Girls’ respectively. As was obvious the moment these positions were announced, they exist purely as a firefighting exercise. A bit like bringing a water pistol to a forest fire…
Asked specifically what Brown would be doing, the spokesman told the Lobby hacks:
“…Obviously the global finances are very sharply in focus because of the conflict… there’s nobody better qualified in international financial arrangements and multinational arrangements to make our economy stronger… Gordon Brown is uniquely qualified for this role… he will now focus on international finance partnerships to support defence, security, and the economy.”
You’d think the incumbent Chancellor would be uniquely qualified to do those things. She apparently is too busy rowing with her sister at children’s birthday parties…
Two former Labour leaders back in No10 with jobs today:
Gordon Brown as Prime Minister’s Special Envoy on Global Finance: “The PM has committed to boosting the country’s security and resilience. In this role, Gordon Brown will advise on how global finance cooperation can help to achieve this.”
Harriet Harman as Prime Minister’s Adviser on Women and Girls: “The PM committed to do more to eradicate structural misogyny and achieve a cultural change. This appointment will help to accelerate progress.”
How will it land…
Gordon Brown sold 12,712,000 ounces of gold at a historic market low for revenue of $3.5 billion.
Sold today at $4,721.64 per ounce that would net $60 billion.
Or £44.05 billion.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy asked John Healey: “Just finally, I mean Andy Burnham has been very clear he wants Britain back in the European Union in his lifetime. Do you?”
The Chancellor replied: “I’m older than Andy Burnham. I don’t expect to see that.”