Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way

Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.

Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year,  yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him.  Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:

Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Owen Smith backs one hour contracts but wants to abolish zero hours contracts:

“You need to give people a contract to say, ‘here’s what you will be working’. It could be one, but I’m saying it shouldn’t be zero, we should invert that emphasis.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

EMPTY SEATS AT SMITH CAMPAIGN RALLY EMPTY SEATS AT SMITH CAMPAIGN RALLY
“AMERITUDE” TRUMP JAM DAD SUES TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN “AMERITUDE” TRUMP JAM DAD SUES TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN
THERESA MAY SMILING AS TORY POLLS IMPROVING THERESA MAY SMILING AS TORY POLLS IMPROVING
HIGH COURT JUDGE COULD CROWN OILY LEADER HIGH COURT JUDGE COULD CROWN OILY LEADER
Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton
LILY COLE FRONTS BBC “CEO SECRETS” SERIES AFTER RUNNING COMPANY INTO GROUND LILY COLE FRONTS BBC “CEO SECRETS” SERIES AFTER RUNNING COMPANY INTO GROUND
Guardian Media Group’s Losses Total £173 Million Guardian Media Group’s Losses Total £173 Million
MCGINN WHIPPED LABOUR MPS TO “KEEP UP THE PRESSURE ON JC” MCGINN WHIPPED LABOUR MPS TO “KEEP UP THE PRESSURE ON JC”
VICTORIA’S SECRET LINGERIE AND 5 STAR HOTELS: WELSH GOVT’S £7.5 MILLION CREDIT CARD SPEND VICTORIA’S SECRET LINGERIE AND 5 STAR HOTELS: WELSH GOVT’S £7.5 MILLION CREDIT CARD SPEND
OWEN SMITH HIRES TOP PFIZER LOBBYIST TO RUN CAMPAIGN OWEN SMITH HIRES TOP PFIZER LOBBYIST TO RUN CAMPAIGN
HAMMOND FIBS AND SAUDI SLAVERY SLIPPED OUT ON DUMPING DAY HAMMOND FIBS AND SAUDI SLAVERY SLIPPED OUT ON DUMPING DAY
MATTHEW ELLIOTT ON WHY LEAVE WON MATTHEW ELLIOTT ON WHY LEAVE WON
OSBORNE GIVEN “SH*T” ROOM WITH NO VIEW OSBORNE GIVEN “SH*T” ROOM WITH NO VIEW
5,000,000 SIGNATURES: FEW POLICY CHANGES 5,000,000 SIGNATURES: FEW POLICY CHANGES
CORBYNISTAS USED CODE TO HIDE CASH-FOR-VOTES PLOT CORBYNISTAS USED CODE TO HIDE CASH-FOR-VOTES PLOT
First Lady Michelle Obama Carpool Karaoke First Lady Michelle Obama Carpool Karaoke
PMQ’s Sketch PMQ’s Sketch
How to Reach Westminster Politicians How to Reach Westminster Politicians
OWEN SMITH’S 999 EMERGENCY OWEN SMITH’S 999 EMERGENCY