Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way

Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.

Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year,  yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him.  Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:

Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Heidi Alexander sums up Labour’s approach to aspiration:

“Babies grow up to become taxpayers.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Core Labour Vote There For UKIP’s Taking Core Labour Vote There For UKIP’s Taking
Lib-Green Pact Plot Leaked Lib-Green Pact Plot Leaked
Tories Braced for Charges Over South Thanet Tories Braced for Charges Over South Thanet
Max Fine for Law Breaking Lib Dems Max Fine for Law Breaking Lib Dems
TROT SUPER-FACTION ORGANISING MOMENTUM TAKEOVER TROT SUPER-FACTION ORGANISING MOMENTUM TAKEOVER
Santa Paws: Phil Hammond’s Christmas Card Santa Paws: Phil Hammond’s Christmas Card
Government Values Guardian Readers Most Highly Government Values Guardian Readers Most Highly
Treasury Implements Amy Lame Tax Treasury Implements Amy Lame Tax
Fidel’s Final Push Fidel’s Final Push
Newmark Back Helping Women2Win Newmark Back Helping Women2Win
BoJo Ho Ho! Christmas Returns to FCO BoJo Ho Ho! Christmas Returns to FCO
Naz Shah Attends Extremist-Linked Event Naz Shah Attends Extremist-Linked Event
HEIDI ALLEN IN MAYORAL ROW HEIDI ALLEN IN MAYORAL ROW
Renzi Loses Referendum – Resigns Renzi Loses Referendum – Resigns
WATCH: Clegg Gets Brillo’d WATCH: Clegg Gets Brillo’d
Brexit Book War – Latest Brexit Book War – Latest
Public Heath England Gets Booze Sums Wrong Public Heath England Gets Booze Sums Wrong
Civil Servants Forced to Admit We’re Leaving EU Civil Servants Forced to Admit We’re Leaving EU
Sarah Olney Walks Out of Interview Sarah Olney Walks Out of Interview