Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way

Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.

Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year,  yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him.  Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:

Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Nick Timothy on George Osborne’s latest:

“Evening Standard editorials will soon be shortlisted for the Booker Prize.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Osborne’s Latest Duff Analysis Osborne’s Latest Duff Analysis
Corbynista Journo Banned from Conference Corbynista Journo Banned from Conference
Sheerman’s Shameless Shilling Sheerman’s Shameless Shilling
Carwyn Jones Picks a Winner Carwyn Jones Picks a Winner
Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser
Owen Goes Full Brent Owen Goes Full Brent
What Caused Rachel Sylvester’s Volte Face? What Caused Rachel Sylvester’s Volte Face?
Labour Moderates Screwed Labour Moderates Screwed
WATCH Boris: “I’m Not Resigning” WATCH Boris: “I’m Not Resigning”
Corbynistas Seek Right to Suspend NEC Elections With “Venezuela Amendment” Corbynistas Seek Right to Suspend NEC Elections With “Venezuela Amendment”
Osborne Repents Osborne Repents
Meanwhile on Labour’s Facebook Forum Meanwhile on Labour’s Facebook Forum
Heywood Breaching Cabinet Manual by Bypassing Ministers Heywood Breaching Cabinet Manual by Bypassing Ministers
Green NGOs Spend Taxpayers Millions Lobbying Government Green NGOs Spend Taxpayers Millions Lobbying Government
May Talks Down CETA Plus Option May Talks Down CETA Plus Option
Momentum Chair: “I’d Rather Have Solidarity With North Korea Than USA” Momentum Chair: “I’d Rather Have Solidarity With North Korea Than USA”
DEx-ODUS Continues DEx-ODUS Continues
WATCH: Lol-Ney Simply the Best WATCH: Lol-Ney Simply the Best
WATCH: Boris Meets Trump WATCH: Boris Meets Trump
EU Berets at LibDem Conference EU Berets at LibDem Conference