Nervousness in David Miliband's Camp

After reading endless tips from Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting.com to back Ed Miliband, Guido switched his bets on Friday. David Miliband’s implied probability of victory had already dropped from 75% to 65% by the time Guido shifted his money from one brother to the other. He is at the time of writing given a 59% chance of winning the leadership (40% for Ed Miliband). Given it is too close to call that could narrow to 50% / 50% soon. Both camps are of course claiming their internal polling numbers point to victory.

In the humiliation stakes punters reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. His odds on avoiding humiliation have improved, dropping from a 62% certainty down to a still not good 41%, with Diane Abbott on 35% and Burnham given 30% a chance of going out first. If you are reading this Sally Bercow, and still think Balls is going to win the leadership, a £5 bet will win you £1000.




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Sky’s Faisal Islam on the mood in Parliament at the moment:

“It’s a totally febrile atmosphere here. It’s kind of like Game of Thrones meets House of Cards – and if you chuck in the Labour Party – Laurel and Hardy too.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016 TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016
SEUMAS’ BAD IDEA SEUMAS’ BAD IDEA
FARAGE VICTORY SPEECH TO EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FARAGE VICTORY SPEECH TO EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
LABOUR COUP DAY 3 LABOUR COUP DAY 3
INSIDE THE PLP: “THE WORST SPEECH I HAVE EVER HEARD IN MY LIFE” INSIDE THE PLP: “THE WORST SPEECH I HAVE EVER HEARD IN MY LIFE”
“SAVE JEZ” SUPPORTERS DEMAND “100 NEW MPS” “SAVE JEZ” SUPPORTERS DEMAND “100 NEW MPS”
CAMERON ON LABOUR: “AND I THOUGHT I WAS HAVING A BAD DAY” CAMERON ON LABOUR: “AND I THOUGHT I WAS HAVING A BAD DAY”
JUNXIT! JUNCKER FACING CALLS TO RESIGN JUNXIT! JUNCKER FACING CALLS TO RESIGN
Runners & Riders Runners & Riders
Social Media’s Filter Bubble Driving Political Anger Social Media’s Filter Bubble Driving Political Anger
4 a.m. Tom Watson 4 a.m. Tom Watson
Britain Votes For Brexit Britain Votes For Brexit
BBC Declares Brexit Winner BBC Declares Brexit Winner
Guido’s Referendum Best Bits Guido’s Referendum Best Bits
Bob Geldof Boat Passenger Votes Leave Bob Geldof Boat Passenger Votes Leave
Which Brexiteer Are You? Which Brexiteer Are You?
Referendum Day CCHQ Leak Referendum Day CCHQ Leak
Liz Hurley Backs Brexit Liz Hurley Backs Brexit
WHICH REMAINER ARE YOU? WHICH REMAINER ARE YOU?