The Treasury has published its monthly comparison of independent economic forecasts, and the numbers massively undercut the OBR’s forecasts. When is the OBR ever right…
The June edition, compiled by the Treasury’s own Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Team and posted on gov.uk, collects the latest predictions from 20 City and independent forecasters. They expect CPI inflation to hit 3.7% by the end of 2026. The OBR’s March forecast had inflation back at its 2% target by then, a precise 1.9%. Today’s predicted number is nearly double that…
The growth picture is obviously no better. Forecasters put 2026 GDP growth at 0.9%, below the OBR’s 1.1%, and have trimmed their 2027 call to 1.0%, against the watchdog’s 1.6%. They also see the Bank Rate stuck at 3.8% by year-end, above the 3.3% the OBR’s March forecast assumed. In other words, don’t expect any rate cuts. All of this is still technically a headache for Rachel Reeves, although it may soon be someone else’s problem once Burnham returns…
Krishnan Guru-Murthy asked John Healey: “Just finally, I mean Andy Burnham has been very clear he wants Britain back in the European Union in his lifetime. Do you?”
The Chancellor replied: “I’m older than Andy Burnham. I don’t expect to see that.”