Newspaper Readers Party Preferences

newspaper-party-affiliation

This British Election Study survey shows Indy readers are a mixed bunch and as many back the coalition parties as Labour. So that endorsement will please and anger readers in equal measure. No surprises in the data. 

Ed Balls Responds to GDP Figures

Growth Lower Than Expected: Slows to 0.3%

Today’s growth figures from the ONS are lower than expected:

  • GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 2014.
  • Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

Ed Balls?

Data Shows Miliband Less Sexy Than Coalition Leaders

yougov-attractiveness

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

The Borrowers

IFS verdict…

Here are the top lines:

  • Tories: debt as a share of national income reduced from 80% in 2014–15 to 72% by 2019–20
  • Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP plans, debt in 2019–20 could be more like 77%, 75% and 78% respectively
  • Labour have been much less clear about exactly what level of deficit reduction they want to achieve than the Tories
  • The Tories need to spell out substantially more detail of how they will deliver the overall fiscal targets they have set themselves
  • The SNP’s fiscal numbers imply the same reduction in borrowing over the next parliament as Labour
  • Under the SNP, the period of austerity would be longer than under the other three parties

Ultimately, the IFS is scathing of all parties:

“the electorate is at best armed with only an incomplete picture of what they can expect from any of these four parties”

Even under the most ‘austere’ plans, those of the Tories, debt as a share of national income will still be 72%…

Masterful LibDem Graph

A LibDem leaflet from Wantage: 

Guido was commended by Royal Statistical Society at the Statistical Excellence in Journalism Awards 2014, so is in a strong position to pass judgement on such matters. Looks fine to him…

The Graph That Ruins Miliband’s Argument

Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:

Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”

Really, Ed?

The financial crisis caused the deficit that Labour ran in 2002/3?

And grew in 2003/4?

And in 2004/5?

And in 2005/6?

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…” in 2006/7?

And in 2007/8?

Really, Ed?

Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses

Ipsos MORI: Not a Single Labour PPC Thinks the Deficit is Important

From this morning’s Ipsos Mori election briefing:

Not a single potential Labour MP thinks the government spending, or the deficit is most important.

Kerching!

Via Paul Blanchard

The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:

Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:

day-pols-didnt-turn

Too late to change the splash?

Labour Losing the PPC/Oxbridge Social Mobility Battle

Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis by the Insight Consulting Group, more newly-elected MPs would be university educated in a Parliament where Labour has the largest party (158) as opposed to the Conservatives (139). So much for being the party of social mobility… 

No Natalie, Capitalism Has Delivered an 80% Decline in World Poverty

As newsrooms across the land stop what they are doing to read the Green Party’s response to Labour’s non-dom announcement, it is worth picking Natalie Bennett up on this:

“The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top of society while those at the bottom struggle to get by.”

Now hold on just a darn prosperity-spreading cotton-picking second. Over the last four decades the world poverty rate – people living on a dollar a day or less – has plummetted. As this graph from CarpeDiem shows, in 1970 almost 30% of the globe was impoverished. 40 years later that number is as low as 5%:

Rather than more of “those at the bottom struggling to get by” over the last four decades, the world poverty rate has fallen 80%. For all the ideological socialist rhetoric, the cold hard facts show that capitalism has freed hundreds of millions from the clutches of poverty.

More Fantasy Election Numbers

It’s Labour’s big health day, so Guido was amused to find this leaflet in his inbox over the weekend. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 it is illegal to knowingly provide false statements on election literature. Just ask Phil Woolas if you think they are joking…

Up in Wirral West they are throwing the absolute kitchen sink at Esther McVey, but given all the ammo they have with her, this Labour leaflet looks very sloppy:

“Tories have: Cut thousands of nurses, doctors and GPs”? Odd, given that since 2010 there are 9,500 more doctors and 6,900 more nurses providing healthcare, according to official NHS statistics. Even odder that Shadow Public Health Minister Luciana Berger had no qualms delivering this leaflet when she visited the seat on Saturday. Given that the local Labour candidate Margaret Greenwood claims to be an NHS expert, you might have thought she would know what she was talking about.

Saturday Seven Up

SATURDAY-SEVEN-UP-2

This week 201,487 visitors visited 573,123 times viewing 989,617 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Reality Check: Nothing Changed

post-debate

As the spin-room packs up after the only TV debate the PM will take part in, what has really changed? The candidates were prepped for weeks, even Natalie Bennett remembered her talking points, each will have gotten something from the debate. Cameron got to look Prime Ministerial, Miliband looked a lot better than the he does when eating a bacon sandwich, Farage confirmed his Marmite status, fervently liked and disliked, Sturgeon really showed her mettle. Clegg was reasonable, Leanne Wood will have made them proud back in Wales. The spin-doctors will highlight where their candidate won on the issues, satisfied at least that their candidate didn’t screw up. 

On the numbers there was a great deal of variation between the pollsters on the key question of who won the debate? Leaving out the also rans of Clegg, Bennett and Wood the pollsters really differed – ICM said Miliband shaded it on 25% and Sturgeon came fourth after Cameron and Farage, YouGov had it in exactly the opposite order with Sturgeon first, followed by Farage, Cameron and then Miliband on only 15%. The double digit difference between first and fourth place and the exact reversing of the order does nothing for the collective credibility of pollsters.

In these circumstances is averaging the poll results really meaningful?  There was more clarity with the issue based polling which confirmed what we already know; Cameron is a clear winner on the economy, Miliband wins on the NHS and Farage wins on immigration. No news…

Did the TV debate enhance democracy? Last night two-thirds of TV viewers didn’t even care enough to watch the TV show that the political class has obsessed over for months. With only 7 million viewers it had a million fewer viewers than that other exemplar of participatory democracy, The Voice.

Are You Happier Than You Were Four Years Ago?

Depending on whether you believe the IFS or Ed Balls, the jury is out on Reagan’s question of “are you better off than you were four years ago”. One barometer that cannot be statistically disputed however is the question of whether or not we should, based on economic indicators, be more miserable than we were in 2010. There has been a clear decline in Guido’s Misery Index during this parliament and we should be happier today than we have ever been in the last five years.

Cameron and Osborne inherited an unemployment rate of 7.9% when they took office, a number which rose as high as 8.4% in March 2012 but has now fallen to a low of 5.7%, the lowest since 2008.

Falling inflation should make us happier. Though the Retail Price Index remained around 5% for the first year or so of this government, it then embarked on a steady decline reaching a current low of 1.1% in February.

Today’s very slightly revised GDP figures – up from 0.5% growth in the last quarter of last year to 0.6% – also contribute. While the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement – the individual monthly borrowing requirement – this month stands at zero. When we are borrowing less, we should all be much happier.

On all four measures of the Misery Index, there has been an improvement under this government, albeit small. Guido started our version of the traditional Misery Index – it is actually a variation on the Robert Barro version of the original Misery Index created by economist Arthur Okun – back before the last general election. Adding in the PSNR to the composite to give the deficit reduction objective of the government some weight. Are we happier than we were five years ago? Statistically the numbers say yes…

Another Shot Fox: IFS Say Yes To Reagan Question

Last year Ed Balls wrote:

‘”Are you better off than you were four years ago?” That was the question Ronald Reagan famously asked the American people in his first Presidential election campaign.

The answer back in 1980 was no — and his Democrat opponent Jimmy Carter was thrown out of the White House after just one term of office.

Thirty-five years on, it’s clear that Reagan’s famous question will be centre-stage in next year’s general election. Every previous British prime minister in my lifetime has always been able to answer it in the affirmative. But David Cameron is currently set to buck that trend…’

Today the IFS announce:

“Average household incomes have just about regained their pre-recession levels. They are finally rising and probably will be higher in 2015 than they were in 2010, and possibly higher than their 2009 peak.”

Are you better off than you were four years ago? Yes, probably.

Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting odds in each seat and which ones are going to change hands, as well as projecting the national picture based on the insight from the turf accountants. Right now it’s showing a dead heat between the Tories and Labour:

You might recognise at least half of those behind the site:


Bookies think Reckless will lose, that the polls are overestimating the SNP and the Liberals won’t be completely screwed. Track it here.

Clegg and Cameron at Sixes and Sevens

Red magazine have been quizzing the party leaders…

Tell us in six words why we should vote Lib Dem?

“Stronger economy. Fairer society. Opportunity for all.”

Yep, that would be seven words.

Tell us in six words why we should vote Conservative?

“Security for you, your family and country.”

Yep, that would also be seven words.

It must be a coalition thing…

Comprehensive Study Finds 64.7% of UK Laws Made in Brussels

BfB UK law Made in Brussels

Research from Business for Britain published today takes a detailed statistical approach to the question of who makes Britain’s laws. On the one hand we had Nick Clegg claiming in his debate with Nigel Farage that only 7% of British laws were made in Brussels.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Jeremy Corbyn:

“I’m not a defender or supporter of ISIS.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Esther McVey for Tatton Esther McVey for Tatton
Zac Back? Zac Back?
UKIP’s Islamo-Banifesto UKIP’s Islamo-Banifesto
Karen Danczuk Seeks Selection in Bury Karen Danczuk Seeks Selection in Bury
Corbyn and Sturgeon At Same Event Corbyn and Sturgeon At Same Event
Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down? Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down?
Tories Mistakenly Share Private Conference Call PIN with Opposition Tories Mistakenly Share Private Conference Call PIN with Opposition
Len and Seamus’s Champaign Celebration Len and Seamus’s Champaign Celebration
Campaign Report: 48 Days To Go Campaign Report: 48 Days To Go
Campaign Report: 49 Days to Go Campaign Report: 49 Days to Go
Listen: Dawn Butler Car Crash Interview Listen: Dawn Butler Car Crash Interview
Manifesto Lookahead: Six Tory Policies in Peril Manifesto Lookahead: Six Tory Policies in Peril
McVey for Upminster? McVey for Upminster?
Watch: Corbyn Crowd Boos and Shouts Down ITV Question Watch: Corbyn Crowd Boos and Shouts Down ITV Question
Coalition of the Others Still Behind Tories Coalition of the Others Still Behind Tories
NEC Swerves Corbyn Loyalty Pledge NEC Swerves Corbyn Loyalty Pledge
Watch: Barry Gardiner Loses It on Sky News Watch: Barry Gardiner Loses It on Sky News
CCHQ Caught on Hop: Not Enough Tory Candidates CCHQ Caught on Hop: Not Enough Tory Candidates
Campaign Report – 50 Days to Go Campaign Report – 50 Days to Go
PMQs Sketch PMQs Sketch