State of the Parties

The results are in, with the exception of Scotland which does not announce until later today. This is the state of the parties this morning:

Here is the BBC’s earthquake warning map:

You can see the results and all the MEPs elected in full here.

Herman van Rompuy, Jose Manuel Barroso, Jacques Delors, Cathy Ashton, Peter Mandelson, Ken Clarke, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, your boys took one hell of a beating…

European Election Results

SCOTLAND

SNP: 389,503
Lab: 348,219
Con: 231,330
UKIP: 140,534
Green: 108,305
LD: 95,319

MEPs: Ian Hudghton (SNP)David Martin (Lab)Ian Duncan (Con)Alyn Smith (SNP)Catherine Stihler (Lab)David Coburn (UKIP).

LONDON

Labour: 806,959
Con: 495,639
UKIP: 371,133
Green: 196,419
Lib Dem: 148,013

MEPs: Claude Moraes (Lab), Sayed Kamall (Con), Mary Honeyball (Lab), Gerard Batten (UKIP), Lucy Anderson (Lab), Charles Tannock (Con), Seb Dance (Lab), Jean Lambert (Green).

SOUTH EAST

UKIP: 751,439
Con: 723,571
Lab: 342,775
Green: 211,706
LD: 187,876

MEPs: Nigel Farage (UKIP), Dan Hannan (Con), Janice Atkinson (UKIP), Nirj Deva (Con), Annalise Dodds (Lab), Diane James (UKIP), Richard Ashworth (Con), Keith Taylor (Green), Catherine Bearder (LD), Ray Finch (UKIP).

WEST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 428,010
Lab: 363,033
Con: 330,470
LD: 75,648
Green: 71,464

MEPs: Jill Seymour (UKIP), Nina Gill (Lab), Philip Bradbourne (Con), Jim Carver (UKIP), Sion Simon (Lab), Anthea McIntyre (Con), Bill Etheridge (UKIP).

NORTH WEST

LAB: 594,063
UKIP: 481,932
CON: 351,985
Green: 123,075
LD: 105,487

MEPs: Theresa Griffin (Lab), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Jaqueline Foster (Con), Afzal Khan (Lab), Louise Bours (UKIP), Julie Ward (Lab), Sajjid Karim (Con), Steven Woolfe (UKIP).

WALES

Lab: 206,332
UKIP: 201,983
Con: 127,742
Plaid: 111,864
Green: 33,275
LD: 28,930

MEPs: D. Vaughan (Lab)N. Gill (UKIP), K. Swinburne (Con), J. Evans (Plaid).

SOUTH WEST

UKIP: 484,184
Con: 433,151
Lab: 206,124
Green: 166,447
LD: 160,376

MEPs: William Dartmouth (UKIP), Ashley Fox (Con), Julia Reid (UKIP), Julie Girling (CON), Claire Moody (Lab), Molly Scott Cato (Green).

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER

UKIP: 403,630
LAB: 380,189 
CON: 248,945
GREEN: 102,282
LD: 81,108

MEPs: Jane Collins (UKIP), Linda McAvan (Lab), T. Kirkhope (Con), A. Bashir (UKIP), R. Corbett (LAB), M. Hookem (UKIP).

EAST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 368,734
Con: 291,270
Lab: 279,363
Green: 67,066
LD: 60,773

MEPs: Roger Helmer (UKIP), Emma McClarkin (Con), Glenis Willmott (Lab), Margot Parker (UKIP), Andrew Lewer (Con).

EAST

UKIP: 542,812
Con: 446,569
Lab: 271,601
Green: 133,331
LD: 108,010

MEPs: Patrick O’Flynn (UKIP)Vicky Ford (Con), Richard Howitt (Lab), John Agnew (UKIP), Geoffry van Orden (Con), Tim Aker (UKIP), David Campbell-Bannerman (Con)

NORTH EAST

LAB – 221,988
UKIP – 177,660
CON – 107,773
LD – 36,093

MEPs: Jude Kirton-Darling (Lab), Paul Brannen (Lab), Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)

Martin Callanan, the leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, has lost his seat.

UKIP Top Poll in Newark

Two weeks til the by-election…

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far left Syriza are top in Greece and Front National appear to have won in France. Britain’s results are expected after 10pm…

UPDATE: A table of exit polls as they come in is available here via @AlbertoNardelli.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Where We Are This Morning

As we go to pixel (7:28am), these are the local election results so far:

  • UKIP is doing huge damage in the Labour heartlands of the North, gaining 86 seats overall with 59 councils declared and on course to win over 100.
  • The BBC has UKIP on around 25% outside London but just 7% in London. UKIP telly star Suzanne Evans has lost her Merton seat.
  • UKIP has done particularly well in Essex, where the Tories have lost control of four councils.
  • The Tories have lost 101 seats overall.
  • Labour has gained 94 seats.
  • The LibDems have lost 84 seats.
  • Mike Hancock has come third in Fratton, losing the seat he has held for 40 years. The LibDems lost control of Portsmouth council.

The first tremors are being felt…

Electoral Commission Acting On Tweeted Irregularities

Quick action…

Electoral Commission Investigating “Folded” UKIP Ballot Papers

The Electoral Commission guidance to polling station staff is clear:

“Fold the ballot paper, then hand it to the voter unfolded. Ask them to re-fold it once they’ve marked their ballot paper in the polling booth.”

Dozens of voters including UKIP candidate Suzanne Evans are reporting that their ballot papers were handed to them with the UKIP section folded, contrary to the rules. The Electoral Commission has confirmed it is “monitoring the issue” and say that “staff have again been instructed to hand papers to voters unfolded”. This does seem widespread, though if you can’t work out how to find the box that says UKIP on your ballot paper you probably should not bother.

UPDATE: 

Who is Modi?

modi-track-record

The line from the Guardian/BBC axis is that Narendra Modi is a dangerous blood-thirsty right-wing nationalist, a sectarian Hindu who oversaw the massacre of Muslims in his home state of Gujurat. For added measure he was associated with the RSS, a uniformed Hindu-fascist organisation. Despite all this disapproval from the left-wing media establishment he has just won more votes in a free election than anyone on the planet…

The reality is he has risen from being a lower caste, poor chai-wallah, a boy selling tea at a train station, to successfully running Gujarat – a state with a population of 60 million – which has outperformed the rest of chronically corrupt India on all economic indicators. The Indian supreme court found there was no evidence that Modi allowed or even encouraged the mob violence in 2002 in Gujarat that led to some thousand deaths. The RSS is closer to Baden Powell’s boy scouts than Hitler’s brownshirts. Modi is a vegetarian, technocrat who believes that India’s Hindus and India’s Hindu culture should command more respect. In that it is fair to say he is a conservative nationalist.

The born-to-rule Congress Party has been swept from power, the once great idealistic party of Gandhi that brought Fabian socialism to India had degenerated into an arrogant, corrupt, nepotistic kleptocracy. Modi offers his fellow members of India’s lower castes the prospect of social mobility, competent government and a high growth economy based on free market reforms, accelerated privatisations and technological progress. Modi’s campaign emphasises optimistically that India can become the largest market in the world and in a way reminiscent of Ronald Reagan, Modi promises to make India proud of its future. His campaign anthem commercial rocks too:

India has won! भारत की विजय। अच्छे दिन आने वाले हैं।

Worst Politician Selfie Idea Yet

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

Ed Miliband, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove step aside, Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt has done his best to single-handedly ruin the selfie. He has set up aself-EU contest where entrants are encouraged to “send us your selfie, showing us where and how you enjoy the benefits of European integration”. The prize? “You could win a day with Guy Verhofstadt.”

Surely no one will be able to beat Guido’s entry:

Let us know when to pop round, Guy!

ComRes Indy/Mirror Euro Poll Puts UKIP 9% Ahead of Tories

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

UKIP  30% (+3)
Lab  28% (+5)
Con  21% (0)
LD  8% (-10)
Green  6% (+2)
Other  7% (0)

This is the first poll to ask separate questions about the European elections for some time. The figures for European voting are based on the 38% who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in those elections – roughly comparable to the 34% turnout in the last elections in 2009.

This UKIP Candidate Definitely Not Racist or Homophobic

18-y-o-ukipper

Our colleagues over at The Sun put 18-year-old politics student Bradley Monk, standing for UKIP to get on the Hampshire County Council seat Winchester Eastgate tomorrow, on page 2 after he put pictures of himself wearing a creepy Jimmy Savile mask on his Facebook page. Further examination of his Facebook reveals him dressed in a bikini having a drunken snog with Eric Cunha, another UKIP activist. Guido thinks we can safely say this is one UKIP candidate who is neither racist or homophobic…

Local Election Big-Mo Based on Crowd Sizes

Ed Miliband has been out and about today campaigning for the local elections:

Ed1

Not content with the small crowd he pulled for his stump speech, he decided to take his message door to door. Car door to door that is. The Merc driver doesn’t look like he’s feeling the pinch too much:

ed2

Talking of crowds, the number of people turning up at UKIP events cannot go unnoticed. Farage is consistently pulling these numbers, with overflow rooms having to be set up on his Partridge-sounding “Common Sense Tour”:

ed3

Who looks like they have got the momentum in this election?

Pics via Twitter

Fabricant Files: A New Pact for 2015

Back in August Guido pointed out that

“the Cameroons like to remind the disgruntled Tory right of a simple bit of coalition electoral arithmetic: Tories on 34% + LibDems on 8% = 42%, just about enough to form a government again in 2015. Well UKIP have been also been polling between 6% to 10% for over a year now. If those right-of-centre voters could be brought back into the Conservative Party embrace they would have a good chance of forming a majority government. UKIP have no MPs in Westminster under first past the post, they do however have plenty of voters for Westminster elections.”

The Indy’s John Rentoul said Guido was mad. Today his paper is front paging a report written by Mike Fabricant, the Conservative Party’s vice-chairman for Campaigns, making the same case for a Tory-UKIP pact:

Guido also reported Charles Tannock MEP producing a briefing note making similar points last month.  Increasingly Tory MPs see activists, especially young activists, shifting their allegiance to UKIP. Without the boundary review and a rapprochement with UKIP voters the Tories are going to lose in some 20 seats – unnecessarily. Downing Street is kidding itself if it believes Andrew Cooper’s claims that UKIP votes are going to melt away at the general election…

Your Definitive Election Night Guide

Staying up for the long night ahead? Then’ll you need to know what to look out for and when the key results will come in.

Here is your definitive print out and check off guide to Election Night 2012

Courtesy of Jag Singh.

ERS Shun Hand Count PCC Elections

Back during the great AV debate of 2011 Guido brought you the news that the Electoral Reform Society owns Electoral Reform Services, the market leader in manufacturing vote counting software. Guido wondered at the time whether the £250 million worth of electronic voting machines run by ERS Ltd had anything to do with the ERS’ support for AV…

Now the ERS have published a paper criticising the forthcoming Police and Crime Commissioner elections. Apparently low turnout means the elections will be completely unrepresentative, with chief executive Katie Ghose asking: “what is the point of having them?

In other news, the PCC election ballot papers will be counted by hand rather than with ERS Ltd’s machines. Perhaps the ERS only supports elections when they stand to make a profit…

The 2015 New Coalition

Cameroons like to remind the disgruntled Tory right of a simple bit of coalition electoral arithmetic: Tories on 34% + LibDems on 8% = 42%, just about enough to form a government again in 2015. Well UKIP have been also been polling between 6% to 10% for over a year now. If those right-of-centre voters could be brought back into the Conservative Party embrace they would have a good chance of forming a majority government. UKIP have no MPs in Westminster under first past the post, they do however have plenty of voters for Westminster elections.

During the 2010 general election readers of this blog raised over £15,000 to “Get Balls Out” by supporting the Tory candidate in Morley & Outwood. On election night Balls survived by a mere thousand or so votes, fewer votes than the UKIP candidate received. UKIP HQ called Guido on the night and said if they had known it was going to be so close they would have stood their candidate down. Perhaps a formal pre-election pact is politically impossible. However the Eurozone is likely to fall apart in the near future, new arrangements will be put in place by the EU radically altering the existing structure. On that basis the government will be entitled to bring the EU referendum promised by both governing parties. If the LibDems refuse to countenance a referendum the Conservatives need only to promise an immediate referendum within a year of the general election to bring about an implicit electoral pact with UKIP.

If you think this is improbable you could be surprised. The Conservative Party’s main internal Thatcherite pressure group, Conservative Way Forward, has quietly changed its constitution to allow UKIP members to join. The unhappy experience of coalition with the LibDems has opened the eyes of many on the Tory right to the electoral logic of coalition with UKIP. Dan Hannan isn’t the only one who wants it to happen

Labour Lost London the Day they Chose Ken Why Didn’t Labour Choose Oona?

Months before Labour selected a candidate for Mayor of London, Guido chatted with a senior City Hall Tory politico, asking him who he really preferred to fight; Oona or Ken? Without hesitating he said “Oona so long as Ken stands as an independent again. If not, Ken”. He got his wish…

That was a real fear for Labour. If Ken wasn’t their candidate, he would still be a candidate. The Labour machine could have selected Oona if it really wanted. It didn’t kick into action against his cynically parasitical organisation. Not because Ken outwitted them, it was because they feared a rogue Ken again, be in no doubt that if the Labour establishment and Labour HQ really wanted they could have stopped Ken being their chosen candidate. Implicit blackmail by Ken when Labour was reeling from losing the general election got him the candidacy.

Labour will spin and blame it on a ruthlessly negative Lynton Crosby campaign, and in many ways it was a classic, however it was only workable because Ken has so many negatives to mine. That type of campaign could not have been run against Oona. She is too fresh, too funky London and too centrist. Labour lost London they day they succumbed to Ken’s blackmail.

Election Results

Going to stay up have a few drinks, watch the politicians make excuses and go to bed before the results are in.

Feel free to amuse yourself and mock the afflicted in the comments. Expect it to be a 1000 seat gain for Labour. Guido expects a very bad night for LibDems and moderately bad for Tories…

Only big bet Guido had was on the Tories coming second in the Leicester South by-election. Some dosh on the SNP giving Labour a kicking in Scotland. Will lose a few quid on the AV vote due to being a bit too clever and trying to buy a Yes bounce. It never came…

Selecting the Checks and Balances

The post-election jamboree roles on. Despite the flurry of activity over the close of Labour leadership nominations, today’s Select Committee Chairman elections are not to be ignored. ConHome has the most comprehensive coverage.

Given any LibDem with an ounce of talent, and plenty lacking even that, are now in government, it came as no surprise that the two committees allocated to them were uncontested and two old timers Beith and Bruce are now running the hugely significant International Development and Justice Committees.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Michael Crick on Safe Seats:

“In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Leader of Anti-UKIP Protest Embroiled in SWP Rape Scandal Leader of Anti-UKIP Protest Embroiled in SWP Rape Scandal
Hollobone Agrees Tory-UKIP Pact Hollobone Agrees Tory-UKIP Pact
David Mackintosh Quits David Mackintosh Quits
Happy Ed Balls Day Happy Ed Balls Day
Campaign Report: 42 Days To Go Campaign Report: 42 Days To Go
Zac Back? Watch Our Guy News Special Zac Back? Watch Our Guy News Special
Campaign Report: 43 Days To Go Campaign Report: 43 Days To Go
Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch Gallery Guido’s PMQs Sketch
Farron U-Turns and Sacks David Ward Farron U-Turns and Sacks David Ward
‘Spring’ Breaks: Jolyon’s Short-Lived New Party ‘Spring’ Breaks: Jolyon’s Short-Lived New Party
More Selection Shenanigans More Selection Shenanigans
Bouattia Ousted Bouattia Ousted
David Ward Becoming a Problem for Farron David Ward Becoming a Problem for Farron
Clive Lewis Slammed by ICM for Fake News Poll Clive Lewis Slammed by ICM for Fake News Poll
Radio 4 Gossips Link Peston to Today Radio 4 Gossips Link Peston to Today
Mirror Chicken Fattened for Election Slaughter Mirror Chicken Fattened for Election Slaughter
Len Tries to Stitch Up Liverpool Walton for His Bag Carrier Len Tries to Stitch Up Liverpool Walton for His Bag Carrier
Starmer on Corbyn: Then and Now Starmer on Corbyn: Then and Now
Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down? Updates: Who’s Standing? Who’s Standing Down?
Banks Bottles It Banks Bottles It