Professor John Curtice makes a prediction on LBC…
“I will make a prediction. There are going to be a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs as a result of this election. That makes it difficult for the Tories and Labour to win an overall majority.”
Both major party’s share of the vote fell in Newport West last night, with the Tories falling by 8%, and Labour by 13%. This was a larger fall than expected for Labour after 9 years in opposition. It represents a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Tories…
UKIP outperformed expectations suggesting that the party’s hard turn to the hard right hasn’t cut through to the electorate, or that its voter base simply hasn’t been put off and prioritised sending a signal about Brexit over any other concerns. This should worry both main parties…
The full results were:
The only person chuffed with tonight’s voted will be Gerard Batten…
Polling guru Sir John Curtice told the BBC this afternoon that, contrary to what the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign are trying to claim, “the weight of the evidence is that there hasn’t been an increase in support” for a second referendum. The only way Remainers can manipulate polls to generate support for a vote is by implying that Remain wouldn’t be on the ballot paper…
BBC fact checkers took Remain fanatic Alastair Campbell to task on BBC Politics Live today. Campbell’s assertion that “there has been a big shift in support for a second referendum” was thoroughly torpedoed by Sir John Curtice’s comprehensive analysis that “there is no consistent evidence of a shift in support for a second referendum.”
Loopy continuity Remainers want to convince the media that their second referendum is viable. It’s not.
John Curtice explains Labour’s poor night: “It’s not clear Labour are anywhere near being in a position to win an early general election… the truth is there isn’t really much for the Labour party to celebrate this morning”.
Michael Thrasher agreed on Sky: “What Labour has failed to do is establish itself as a party that can win the next general election… It’s certainly not a good night for Jeremy Corbyn.”
They’re being generous…
John Curtice on fiscal policy:
“Attitudes to taxation and spending are basically counter-cyclical. If a government comes in and tries to reduce spending and taxation, after a while people will get worried about the state of public services. If a government increases taxation and public spending, after a while they’ll get concerned about increasing taxation…. In as much as there are lots of ideologues out there who think the state should be this proportion of GDP, they’re all wrong. Because the public’s view is counter-cyclical to the recent experience. It’s basically impossible to satisfy the public.”
