HMRC this week declared victory in the war on illegal tobacco after claiming the duty gap for hand-rolling tobacco fell to an all-time low in 2024/25. They also admitted they are making up the figures themselves…
The taxman’s report concedes the 2024/25 tobacco figures are “projected” rather than measured because of “data availability and small sample sizes.” In the methodology annex it admits that “as a result of modifications to question sequencing and funding limitations, certain consumption data for 2024 to 2025 are incomplete.” The method relies on counting how many cigarettes are smoked, subtracting legal sales, then calling the difference the black market…
HMRC’s figures are doubtful in context. Smoker numbers fell 17% between 2002 and 2024 but legal cigarette sales fell 34% and legal rolling tobacco 40%. Provisional 2025 data shows legal sales down 40% and 53% respectively since 2022. What’s filling the gap…
KPMG’s empty-pack survey for Philip Morris found one third of British packs were illicit. Some estimates show 50% of rolling tobacco is now illicit. Ireland’s official figures show 28% and 37%. Meanwhile HMRC estimates only 14.2%…
The government is simultaneously making cracking down on dodgy high-street shops a flagship priority. Mahmood told the BBC weeks ago that illegal cigarettes are “what’s powering all this” and ministers have pumped more cash to the National Crime Agency. Either there is a problem or there isn’t…
Speaking at his speech on how to achieve “progressive capitalism” Wes Streeting fired a dig and Andy Burnham:
“Bond markets are not bond villains and fiscal rules matter.”