Ofgem has admitted Britain could fail its legal gas security test this winter in a worst-case scenario. To cope, there’s a £147.2 million bill over five years to keep a gas pipeline to Belgium open
Ofgem modelled a 1-in-20 cold day with the Milford Haven LNG terminals knocked out, and found supply capability would fall 5 million cubic metres a day short of demand this winter. Ofgem stresses this is not the formal statutory assessment, which National Gas has yet to publish:
“Without intervention, Great Britain could potentially face a negative supply margin in winter 2026/27… The position could become more constrained in future winters without intervention.”
Under the deal, National Gas pays INT to keep around 61 million cubic metres a day of import capacity on the market, instead of letting it fall to 36 million as INT planned this month. The pipeline supplied just 0.2% of Britain’s gas last winter, but its capacity equals around 15% of peak demand. An insurance policy…
The deal was signed today and Ofgem approved it. Ofgem’s own charts show North Sea output falling 7.7% a year and DESNZ wrote to Ofgem in March urging a deal “as soon as possible.” Gassed…
