The OECD has cut its UK growth forecast for 2027 to 1.1%, down from the 1.3% it expected in March, a detail Rachel Reeves conveniently skipped over today as she welcomed slightly higher growth this year and inflation a smidge lower than previously forecast. As if the country woke up this morning grateful for her heroism…
The 2026 figure is still anaemic at best. At 0.9%, it beats the 0.7% the OECD predicted in spring, but it marks a slowdown from 1.4% last year and leaves Britain near the bottom of the G7. The improvement largely reflects a stronger first quarter, before the war in Iran pushed up energy prices. Elsewhere, the picture is bleak…
Inflation is set to reach 3.7% this year and remain above target at 2.4% in 2027. Debt rises through 105% of GDP, the deficit stays above 4%, and unemployment climbs to 5.5%. Happy Wednesday.
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”