The Trades Union Congress collaborated formally with civil servants to produce counter-analysis of the Employment Rights Act that propagandised Rayner’s legislation.
In private email correspondence uncovered by Guido’s FOI Unit, a TUC official wrote to two DBT officials: “I have also attached our final note on the government’s ERB impact assessment, which, you may be aware, has been checked with your analysts.” The ‘note’ presented analysis from the TUC to claim the Employment Rights Act would boost the economy by £10 billion…
The TUC analysis’ stated objective was to hit back against the government’s own forecast that the Employment Rights Act could cost £5 billion for businesses across the country. The email said:
“It emphasises that the often quoted (small) £5bn cost is the maximum potential cost if every measure in the Act were to generate its highest estimated impact each year AND that it is not an accurate figure of net quantified benefits nor net unquantified benefits.”
The TUC note argued the £5 billion figure was inflated by the methodology used and complained that policies were placed into cost buckets and the upper bound of each bucket was summed. The note presented the TUC and Landman Economics’ own estimate of unquantified benefits at £10.3 billion per year, claiming these were “37 times higher than the net costs (-£280m) quantified in the government’s economic assessment.” The largest single component of the TUC’s claimed £10.3 billion in benefits was “reduced workplace conflict” – others included “days lost to stress/depression/anxiety” apparently worth £974 million and “improvement in wellbeing”(£930m). ‘Landman Economics’ is a tiny outfit which produces pro-Labour and pro-migration analysis for waving around by activists…
The note was also shared with DBT SpAd Nicola Bartlett. So DBT’s own analysts had pre-approved a TUC document designed to minimise the cost of the government’s own legislation…
Thankfully the propaganda analysis never caught on to overtake the government’s low estimate of a £5 billion cost to businesses. It will likely be higher…
Paula Barker, Liverpool Wavertree MP backing Andy Burnham, told Times Radio there wouldn’t be trouble from the markets under Burnham:
“The markets will have to fall in line.”