At the time of going to pixel, Andy Burnham is the odds-on favourite to win the Makerfield by-election at a best price of 4/7, or an implied 64% probability. Reform have drifted to 2/1, although they haven’t yet unveiled their candidate. Restore Britain are at 11/1 and the Conservatives are a 940/1 afterthought in a seat they have never won…
| Labour (Burnham) | 4/7 |
64% |
| Reform | 2/1 |
33% |
| Restore Britain | 11/1 |
8% |
| Green | 200/1 |
<1% |
| Lib Dem | 500/1 |
<1% |
| Conservatives | 940/1 |
<1% |
There is still a month to go, and the prices are unlikely to be stable…
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”