Reform’s internal polling suggests 163 Labour MPs (164 if poor Karl Turner is let back in) would lose their seats at the next election, including seven Cabinet ministers. Guido has the data…
Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, Jonathan Reynolds, Pat McFadden, and even Angela Rayner are all under threat from Reform. David Lammy would lose to Polanksi’s Greens. The Tories would take Rachel Reeves’ seat. A bloodbath…
The polling is based on the votes cast at last week’s local elections. See the full list below. This list obviously only applies to areas that had elections last Thursday. The other half would be presumably just as bad. Labour MPs who aren’t on this list shouldn’t get too comfortable…
| # | MP & Seat | To | PP |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cabinet on the chopping block
|
|||
| 23 | CABINETLisa Nandy · Wigan | REF | -25.2 |
| 46 | CABINETJonathan Reynolds · Stalybridge and Hyde | REF | -21.2 |
| 53 | CABINETYvette Cooper · Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | REF | -19.8 |
| 54 | CABINETBridget Phillipson · Houghton and Sunderland South | REF | -19.6 |
| 62 | CABINETPat McFadden · Wolverhampton South East | REF | -18.3 |
| 127 | CABINETDavid Lammy · Tottenham | GRN | -7.7 |
| 152 | CABINETRachel Reeves · Leeds West and Pudsey | CON | -4.2 |
|
Biggest swings against Labour
|
|||
| 1 | Josh Newbury · Cannock Chase | REF | -43.1 |
| 2 | Sarah Edwards · Tamworth | REF | -41.8 |
| 3 | Chris Vince · Harlow | CON | -40.6 |
| 4 | Sonia Kumar · Dudley | REF | -37.6 |
| 5 | Matt Turmaine · Watford | LD | -35.7 |
| 6 | Leigh Ingham · Stafford | CON | -33.9 |
| 7 | Oliver Ryan · Burnley | REF | -33.3 |
| 8 | Fred Thomas · Plymouth Moor View | REF | -32.5 |
| 9 | David Williams · Stoke-on-Trent North | REF | -32.4 |
| 10 | Rachel Taylor · North Warwickshire and Bedworth | REF | -31.8 |
| 11 | Melanie Onn · Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | REF | -31.6 |
| 12 | MINStephen Morgan · Portsmouth South | LD | -29.8 |
| 13 | Richard Quigley · Isle of Wight West | REF | -29.7 |
| 14 | Andy MacNae · Rossendale and Darwen | REF | -28.5 |
| 15 | Jonathan Brash · Hartlepool | REF | -28.3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Hinder · Pendle and Clitheroe | REF | -28.1 |
| 17 | Mark Sewards · Leeds South West and Morley | REF | -27.5 |
| 18 | Jodie Gosling · Nuneaton | REF | -27.3 |
| 19 | Josh Simons · Makerfield | REF | -27.1 |
| 20 | Cat Eccles · Stourbridge | REF | -26.5 |
| 21 | Jess Phillips · Birmingham Yardley | LD | -26.1 |
| 22 | Amanda Martin · Portsmouth North | REF | -25.6 |
| 24 | Danny Beales · Uxbridge and South Ruislip | CON | -25.2 |
| 25 | Helena Dollimore · Hastings and Rye | GRN | -25.0 |
| 26 | Sam Carling · North West Cambridgeshire | REF | -24.8 |
| 27 | Jen Craft · Thurrock | REF | -24.8 |
| 28 | Connor Rand · Altrincham and Sale West | CON | -24.5 |
| 29 | Chris Bloore · Redditch | REF | -24.5 |
| 30 | Sarah Smith · Hyndburn | REF | -24.4 |
| 31 | Maya Ellis · Ribble Valley | LD | -24.3 |
| 32 | Laurence Turner · Birmingham Northfield | REF | -24.1 |
| 33 | Emma Lewell-Buck · South Shields | REF | -24.1 |
| 34 | Clive Lewis · Norwich South | GRN | -23.8 |
| 35 | Kim Leadbeater · Spen Valley | REF | -23.8 |
| 36 | Joe Powell · Kensington and Bayswater | CON | -23.8 |
| 37 | Jo Platt · Leigh and Atherton | REF | -23.4 |
| 38 | Clive Betts · Sheffield South East | REF | -23.3 |
| 39 | Bayo Alaba · Southend East and Rochford | REF | -23.3 |
| 40 | Abtisam Mohamed · Sheffield Central | GRN | -22.6 |
| 41 | MINEmma Hardy · Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | REF | -22.2 |
| 42 | Sureena Brackenridge · Wolverhampton North East | REF | -22.2 |
| 43 | MINDiana Johnson · Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | LD | -22.2 |
| 44 | Kirith Entwistle · Bolton North East | REF | -21.6 |
| 45 | Alex Ballinger · Halesowen | REF | -21.5 |
| 47 | Debbie Abrahams · Oldham East and Saddleworth | REF | -20.8 |
| 48 | Afzal Khan · Manchester Rusholme | GRN | -20.6 |
| 49 | Rachel Blake · Cities of London and Westminster | CON | -20.4 |
| 50 | Elsie Blundell · Heywood and Middleton North | REF | -20.4 |
| 51 | Lewis Atkinson · Sunderland Central | REF | -20.2 |
| 52 | Alice Macdonald · Norwich North | GRN | -20.2 |
| 55 | Jon Trickett · Normanton and Hemsworth | REF | -19.2 |
| 56 | Olivia Blake · Sheffield Hallam | LD | -19.2 |
| 57 | Adam Jogee · Newcastle-under-Lyme | REF | -19.1 |
| 58 | Marie Tidball · Penistone and Stocksbridge | REF | -19.1 |
| 59 | David Burton-Sampson · Southend West and Leigh | REF | -18.8 |
| 60 | Alex Sobel · Leeds Central and Headingley | GRN | -18.7 |
| 61 | Kate Osborne · Jarrow and Gateshead East | REF | -18.4 |
| 63 | Jim McMahon · Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | REF | -18.1 |
| 64 | John Slinger · Rugby | REF | -18.0 |
| 65 | Ben Coleman · Chelsea and Fulham | CON | -17.6 |
| 66 | Jade Botterill · Ossett and Denby Dale | REF | -17.4 |
| 67 | Ashley Dalton · West Lancashire | REF | -17.2 |
| 68 | Simon Lightwood · Wakefield and Rothwell | REF | -17.1 |
| 69 | Kevin Bonavia · Stevenage | REF | -16.7 |
| 70 | Antonia Bance · Tipton and Wednesbury | REF | -16.7 |
| 71 | Angela Rayner · Ashton-under-Lyne | REF | -16.6 |
| 72 | Michael Wheeler · Worsley and Eccles | REF | -16.4 |
| 73 | Al Carns · Birmingham Selly Oak | GRN | -16.2 |
| 74 | Louise Haigh · Sheffield Heeley | GRN | -16.1 |
| 75 | Sean Woodcock · Banbury | REF | -16.1 |
| 76 | Valerie Vaz · Walsall and Bloxwich | REF | -15.6 |
| 77 | Paul Davies · Colne Valley | REF | -15.6 |
| 78 | Stephanie Peacock · Barnsley South | REF | -15.4 |
| 79 | Daniel Francis · Bexleyheath and Crayford | REF | -15.3 |
| 80 | Yuan Yang · Earley and Woodley | CON | -15.3 |
| 81 | Sharon Hodgson · Washington and Gateshead South | REF | -14.5 |
| 82 | Yasmin Qureshi · Bolton South and Walkden | REF | -14.5 |
| 83 | Andrew Lewin · Welwyn Hatfield | REF | -14.3 |
| 84 | David Pinto-Duschinsky · Hendon | CON | -14.2 |
| 85 | Pam Cox · Colchester | REF | -14.1 |
| 86 | Mark Ferguson · Gateshead Central and Whickham | REF | -14.1 |
| 87 | Kate Dearden · Halifax | REF | -14.0 |
| 88 | Darren Paffey · Southampton Itchen | REF | -13.8 |
| 89 | Steve Race · Exeter | GRN | -13.5 |
| 90 | Feryal Clark · Enfield North | CON | -13.5 |
| 91 | Luke Murphy · Basingstoke | REF | -13.3 |
| 92 | Harpreet Uppal · Huddersfield | REF | -13.3 |
| 93 | Alex Baker · Aldershot | REF | -13.3 |
| 94 | Josh Fenton-Glynn · Calder Valley | REF | -13.3 |
| 95 | Peter Lamb · Crawley | REF | -13.2 |
| 96 | Phil Brickell · Bolton West | REF | -13.1 |
| 97 | Vicky Foxcroft · Lewisham North | GRN | -13.0 |
| 98 | David Baines · St Helens North | REF | -12.9 |
| 99 | Marie Rimmer · St Helens South and Whiston | REF | -12.5 |
| 100 | Gill Furniss · Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | REF | -12.3 |
| 101 | Mary Glindon · Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | REF | -12.3 |
| 102 | Paul Foster · South Ribble | REF | -12.1 |
| 103 | Paulette Hamilton · Birmingham Erdington | REF | -12.0 |
| 104 | Emma Foody · Cramlington and Killingworth | REF | -11.8 |
| 105 | Judith Cummins · Bradford South | REF | -11.8 |
| 106 | Andrew Pakes · Peterborough | CON | -11.8 |
| 107 | Patrick Hurley · Southport | REF | -11.6 |
| 108 | Uma Kumaran · Stratford and Bow | GRN | -11.3 |
| 109 | Hamish Falconer · Lincoln | REF | -11.2 |
| 110 | Joe Morris · Hexham | REF | -11.0 |
| 111 | Sarah Sackman · Finchley and Golders Green | CON | -10.6 |
| 112 | Taiwo Owatemi · Coventry North West | REF | -10.4 |
| 113 | Chi Onwurah · Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | REF | -10.1 |
| 114 | Liam Byrne · Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | REF | -9.9 |
| 115 | Rebecca Long-Bailey · Salford | REF | -9.9 |
| 116 | Margaret Mullane · Dagenham and Rainham | REF | -9.6 |
| 117 | Anna Dixon · Shipley | GRN | -9.3 |
| 118 | Beccy Cooper · Worthing West | REF | -9.2 |
| 119 | MINEllie Reeves · Lewisham West and East Dulwich | GRN | -9.2 |
| 120 | Matt Rodda · Reading Central | GRN | -9.1 |
| 121 | Derek Twigg · Widnes and Halewood | REF | -9.0 |
| 122 | Dan Jarvis · Barnsley North | REF | -9.0 |
| 123 | Dan Tomlinson · Chipping Barnet | CON | -8.9 |
| 124 | Catherine McKinnell · Newcastle upon Tyne North | LD | -8.4 |
| 125 | Tahir Ali · Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | GRN | -8.1 |
| 126 | Natasha Irons · Croydon East | CON | -7.8 |
| 128 | Christian Wakeford · Bury South | REF | -7.7 |
| 129 | Meg Hillier · Hackney South and Shoreditch | GRN | -7.6 |
| 130 | Richard Burgon · Leeds East | REF | -7.5 |
| 131 | Paul Waugh · Rochdale | REF | -7.5 |
| 132 | Daniel Zeichner · Cambridge | GRN | -7.3 |
| 133 | Kate Osamor · Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | CON | -7.1 |
| 134 | Callum Anderson · Buckingham and Bletchley | REF | -6.8 |
| 135 | Tom Rutland · East Worthing and Shoreham | REF | -6.8 |
| 136 | Neil Coyle · Bermondsey and Old Southwark | LD | -6.5 |
| 137 | Rupa Huq · Ealing Central and Acton | LD | -6.4 |
| 138 | Fleur Anderson · Putney | CON | -6.2 |
| 139 | Calvin Bailey · Leyton and Wanstead | GRN | -6.2 |
| 140 | James Frith · Bury North | REF | -6.0 |
| 141 | Jack Abbott · Ipswich | REF | -5.8 |
| 142 | Apsana Begum · Poplar and Limehouse | REF | -5.0 |
| 143 | Emily Darlington · Milton Keynes Central | REF | -5.0 |
| 144 | Barry Gardiner · Brent West | CON | -4.8 |
| 145 | Liz Twist · Blaydon and Consett | REF | -4.8 |
| 146 | Marsha De Cordova · Battersea | CON | -4.4 |
| 147 | Mark Hendrick · Preston | REF | -4.3 |
| 148 | Anneliese Midgley · Knowsley | REF | -4.3 |
| 149 | Luke Pollard · Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | REF | -4.3 |
| 150 | Chris Curtis · Milton Keynes North | REF | -4.3 |
| 151 | Navendu Mishra · Stockport | REF | -4.3 |
| 153 | Lucy Powell · Manchester Central | GRN | -4.2 |
| 154 | Satvir Kaur · Southampton Test | REF | -4.0 |
| 155 | Jeff Smith · Manchester Withington | GRN | -3.6 |
| 156 | Hilary Benn · Leeds South | GRN | -3.5 |
| 157 | Will Stone · Swindon North | CON | -3.5 |
| 158 | Heidi Alexander · Swindon South | CON | -3.4 |
| 159 | Warinder Juss · Wolverhampton West | REF | -3.3 |
| 160 | Tulip Siddiq · Hampstead and Highgate | LD | -3.0 |
| 161 | Mary Creagh · Coventry East | REF | -2.8 |
| 162 | Bambos Charalambous · Southgate and Wood Green | CON | -2.4 |
| 163 | Clive Efford · Eltham and Chislehurst | REF | -2.1 |
Paula Barker, Liverpool Wavertree MP backing Andy Burnham, told Times Radio there wouldn’t be trouble from the markets under Burnham:
“The markets will have to fall in line.”