Tories Turn Up Local Election Expectation Management As Polls Open mdi-fullscreen

Polls have opened for local elections across the country, and as usual, both parties are furiously spinning the best and worst case scenarios. The Conservatives particularly pessimistic – at least in front of the cameras. Last night at Onward’s anniversary reception, Rishi Sunak warned the Tories face “a tough night” after the “box set drama” politics of his predecessors, and the party should expect “good councillors” to lose their seats. CCHQ are briefing out potential losses of up to 1,000 seats by tomorrow…

Labour, meanwhile, claim they’re hoping to gain around 400 seats, adding that an 8-point lead would be their best local result since 1997. Sir John Curtice points out in the Times that they actually need a double-digit lead to show Starmer is on track for Downing Street in 2024. Ed Miliband won a 7-point lead in 2012, and look how that turned out…

Electoral Calculus’s analysis is less pessimistic about the Tories’ chances than CCHQ. Their model predicts the Tories will lose around 258 seats, with Labour gaining 400 on a 5% lead:

Counting is expected to continue well into tomorrow morning, so don’t expect a clear result overnight…

mdi-tag-outline Data Guido Local Elections
mdi-account-multiple-outline John Curtice Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak
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