At first glance, new YouGov polling out this morning makes for confusing reading: if Sir Keir gets a Beergate fine, Tory voters think he should stay on as leader, whereas Labour voters think he should go:

The general public is firmly of the view that Starmer should resign, at 46% agreeing versus 32% opposing. They also comfortably believe Starmer either did definitely or probably break the rules (54%) to probably didn’t or definitely didn’t (21%).

Labour voters seem to be more inconsistent in their views on the PM. Just 48% think Starmer should go if fined, versus 83% after Boris’s fine…