Today is economy day, Shadow Chancellor McDonnell will be up later promising to spend hundreds of billions of borrowed money and raised taxes. Sajid Javid has just promised to increase spending by hundreds of billions in borrowed money. No mention of that fiscal deficit the Tories promised to close in 2015.
All this borrowing will, they both claim, be financed from the sale of government gilts at the currently prevailing cheap interest rates. The market is suspicious and interest rates will inevitably rise if the market is flooded with gilts. The world’s biggest bond investment fund is Pimco, here’s what their chief investment officer for global fixed income told the FT this morning:
“The prospect of increased sales of gilts to fund more government spending makes the current high prices even less attractive. Gilt yields look too low in general. If you don’t need to own them it makes sense to be underweight”
Incidentally, the name of that chief investment officer is Andrew Balls, brother of Ed Balls. Saj knows that investors will not perpetually buy gilts at the high prices and the low yields prevailing today…