The Hartlepool seat is one of Labour’s most vulnerable, it voted Leave by 69.5%, making it one of the highest Leave voting Labour held seats in the UK.

• In the 2017 general election Labour’s new candidate Mike Hill won a decisive victory, giving Labour 52.5%
• UKIP came third in 2017 which sounds like an unpromising base, until you know they came second in 2015 only 7 points behind Labour
• The incumbent Labour candidate Mike Hill was suspended from the party over allegations of sexual harassment. he’s been re-instated for the election.
• The local council is Tory / Brexit Party controlled.

Guido is pretty sure Tice will keep his deposit, the seat is one of the Brexit Party’s best hopes…