How the Leadership Candidates Matched Up to Expectations

Here’s how the candidates performed in the first round compared to the number of public declarations they had immediately before the vote (including themselves). At least none of them went backwards from public declarations…

  • Boris (+28, up 32%): The frontrunner is sitting very comfortably. Already over the 105 threshold to guarantee a spot in the final two…
  • Hunt (+9, up 26%): Solid performance from Hunt. Will be pleased there was no big surge from Gove or Saj…
  • Gove (+4, up 12%): Held off attempts from rival camps to poach supporters after his torrid weekend. Gives him time to try to turn it around…
  • Raab (+3, up 12%): Minor progress but he’s fishing in a much smaller pool than his immediate rivals with Boris hoovering up so many Leavers. Will want to hang on for a few more rounds…
  • Saj (+4, up 21%): Will be disappointed that his slick launch yesterday hasn’t translated into more votes. A lot of ground to cover to even get close to Hunt…
  • Hancock (+3, up 18%): Cleared the first hurdle but a long way shy of the higher threshold for round two. Will need a gamechanging debate performance to have any chance of staying in…
  • Stewart (+9, up 90%): Late surge for the wildcard candidate sees him hang on to give us a few more days of entertainment. Hard to see him making it much further…
  • [OUT] Leadsom (+7, up 175%): Beat the other stragglers but still some way short of the mark. How different things might be now if she’d stayed in three years ago…
  • [OUT] Harper (+2, up 25%): Bows out in similar fashion to how he entered the race. At least he hung on long enough to give us his view on a fight between a lion and a bear…
  • [OUT] McVey (+3, up 50%): Didn’t manage to make up much ground despite a fresh-looking campaign. Surprising Team Boris didn’t lend her a few votes to keep the debate further over on the Brexit side…

There are 30 fresh votes up for grabs now after the bottom three were eliminated, but the bar is now raised to 32(+1) for the next round. Unless there’s a flurry of switchers there could be multiple candidates getting the chop next Tuesday as well…


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Quote of the Day

Expelled Tory MP, Richard Benyon, on the short three-day Programme Motion for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill:

“Whether you had three days, three weeks or three months debating this, you would not hear one original argument that we hadn’t otherwise heard in this process…”

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