The Times’ Red Box has produced a useful chart of the indispensable ConservativeHome’s leadership polling for the last 2 years. There was an eccentric period of Mogg ascendancy in late 2017 – which Guido laid at the bookies to the tune of thousands – before Boris became the activists first choice again. Dominic Raab has been picking up steady support since last July.

The quasi-democratic Tory system means that this poll is not the one the counts. Tory MPs choose the two candidates that go to the pro-Brexit membership. The parliamentary party is more sympathetic to remaining and some MPs are ardent Boris haters. There is a real danger that MPs might once again try to foist a candidate who backed remaining on the members. Which hasn’t worked out very well so far…