No Big Impact From No Deal

With the Brexit negotiations in an absolute mess, the wonks at Open Europe have helpfully modelled the potential impact of a no deal scenario in a new report and found that the medium-term impact of no deal on the UK’s economic growth would be small and could largely be mitigated by unilateral action. Their modelling finds a drag on growth of only 0.17% per annum up to 2030, which could be reduced to a mere 0.04% p.a. if the UK adopted unilateral trade liberalisation measures. GDP will still be over 30% higher than today. Not the doomsday scenario Remainers like to talk about…

The bottom line is that the terms of Brexit are “very unlikely to be the determining factor for the UK economy’s medium-term and long-term growth prospects” – there are many other economic and political factors that are likely to have a far bigger impact over the next few years. Like the introduction of Venezuelan-style socialism…

If the UK wants no deal to be a credible negotiating position it needs a plan to turbocharge the economy, not simply to talk about averting catastrophe. That is what the EU really fears…


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