The range of forecasts from HM Treasury before the referendum was that in the fiscal year 2017-18 unemployment following a vote to leave the EU would rise between 520,000 and 820,000. Remember also George Osborne claimed, because business investment would dry up, “the effect of this would start to be felt immediately”. The CBI got PriceWaterhouse to calculate a million job losses…
It hasn’t quite worked out like that. In fact the exact opposite has happened. According to figures from the Labour Force Survey, the largest household survey in the UK released today:
- For the 3 months to January 2018, there were 32.25 million people working in the UK – that is 402,000 more than for a year earlier. Looking in more detail, there were 377,000 more people working full-time and 25,000 more people working part-time.
- For the 3 months to January 2018, 21.2% of people aged from 16 to 64 were neither in paid work nor looking for paid work. This is known as the “economic inactivity rate” and the latest figure is the equal lowest since records began in 1971.
- UK wages are rising at the fastest rate since 2015.
Remainers who predicted doom and gloom have been so comprehensively proved wrong it is astounding that people think they have any credibility left. Foreign direct investment is strong, the stock market is strong, manufacturing is stronger, exports are booming, employment is booming, wages are rising and we’re importing Europe’s unemployed youth to fill vacancies. More people in work than ever before with the lowest youth unemployment since 1971. This is exactly the opposite of what the Treasury forecast. Astounding.