The word in Whitehall this morning is that the leaked document forecasting doom-laden outcomes in every Brexit scenario was put together by civil servants from the Treasury and the Cabinet Office Brexit unit. Fingers are being pointed at the Brexit team based in the Cabinet Office, run by the Remainer Olly Robbins, with suggestions work was led by Treasury mandarins. Buzzfeed reported that the document was prepared by officials across Whitehall for DexEU, though Guido is led to believe David Davis thinks the forecasts are rubbish, as he has repeatedly said of the Treasury’s economic predictions before. Remainers had been hyping up these assessments, trying to get pro-Remain journalists to warn of a coming bombshell, so it would make sense for someone to flush the document out online.
In any case, Guido wonders who is going to take it seriously. The civil service’s negative post-Brexit worst case scenario is that GDP will be 8% lower in 15 years – roughly 0.5% a year worse. These people were some 3% out with their predictions last year. If they can’t predict one year ahead, do they really have any idea about 15 years’ time?
UPDATE: Also worth noting that none of the models forecast – Norway, Canada or no deal – are currently being sought by the government.