Treasury and Cabinet Office Mandarins Behind Brexit Doom Document

The word in Whitehall this morning is that the leaked document forecasting doom-laden outcomes in every Brexit scenario was put together by civil servants from the Treasury and the Cabinet Office Brexit unit. Fingers are being pointed at the Brexit team based in the Cabinet Office, run by the Remainer Olly Robbins, with suggestions work was led by Treasury mandarins. Buzzfeed reported that the document was prepared by officials across Whitehall for DexEU, though Guido is led to believe David Davis thinks the forecasts are rubbish, as he has repeatedly said of the Treasury’s economic predictions before. Remainers had been hyping up these assessments, trying to get pro-Remain journalists to warn of a coming bombshell, so it would make sense for someone to flush the document out online.

In any case, Guido wonders who is going to take it seriously. The civil service’s negative post-Brexit worst case scenario is that GDP will be 8% lower in 15 years – roughly 0.5% a year worse. These people were some 3% out with their predictions last year. If they can’t predict one year ahead, do they really have any idea about 15 years’ time?

UPDATE: Also worth noting that none of the models forecast – Norway, Canada or no deal – are currently being sought by the government.

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Emmanuel Macron comes over all euro-sceptic…

“We ended the day on what we can call a failure. It’s a very bad image we are giving of the Council and Europe, no one can be satisfied with what happened over so many hours. Our credibility is profoundly tainted with these meetings that are too long and lead to nothing, we give an image of Europe that isn’t serious. We cannot hold talks with world leaders, in an ever more violent world, and be a club that meets at 28 without ever deciding anything.”


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