UKIP will announce the winner of their leadership election this evening at their party conference. Most people think it has boiled down to a two-horse race, overnight betting has seen Peter Whittle become favourite (4/5) and Anne-Marie Waters move out to second favourite (5/4). Has something leaked from the Electoral Reform Society’s counting room?

This is an existential vote for UKIP, former leader Nigel Farage says the party is finished if anti-Islam Waters wins. Most of the MEPs say they will go independent and party officials tell Guido they will quit as well. We’ll know if the party is over in a few hours...