GDP Would Need to Collapse 5% in Next 12 Months to Meet Osborne’s Treasury Predictions

Worth reading the new growth figures in the context of the Treasury’s pre-referendum projections. HMT warned that in the two years following a Leave vote, the UK would enter recession with GDP falling by between 3.6% and 6%.

There has been growth in each quarter following the vote to leave: 0.6% in Q3 2016, 0.6% in Q4 2016, 0.2% in Q1 2017 and 0.3% in Q2 2017. That means to meet Project Fear’s two-year prediction, GDP has to fall by over 5% in the next 12 months. Let’s see…




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