The early battle lines are being drawn for the 2028 London mayoral race. New polling from Opinium suggests if the Tories even want to be viable, they would perform better with a fresh candidate from outside Westminster than with a former minister. No one has thrown their hat in the ring yet. Expect Guido’s runners and riders soon…
The polling put the Conservatives on 17% of first preferences, level with Reform and behind Labour on 32% and the Greens on 18%. On those numbers, the Tories don’t make the final run-off…
That said, the voters most open to switching are those currently backing Reform, of whom 29% would consider a Tory, and Labour, on 20%. Respondents were shown two hypothetical Conservative candidates. One was an entrepreneur, and the other had spent more than a decade as a government minister. Asked which they would rather vote for, 37% chose the entrepreneur, compared to 20% for the ex-minister…
The survey also shows 36% naming crime and policing as one of London’s biggest problems and as the issue the Mayor can most influence. Of course, there’s also the question of whether Sir Sadiq / Lord Khan decides to stand for a fourth term. Opinium’s data shows 51% of Londoners think the city is heading in the wrong direction, and Khan’s own approval rating stands at -7. Does David Lammy fancy his chances? He’s not as busy as he used to pretend to be…
Andy Haldane, Burnham’s recent adviser on the economy who has not taken up a No10 job, told Andrew Marr on LBC:
“The market now suspects that this is a traditional tax-and-spend socialist government with better TikTok videos…
imposing windfall taxes on oil & gas or on banks or upping capital gains tax would […] repeat the mistake that Rachel made […] The Achilles heel, the fiscal Achilles heel of this government thus far has been its unwillingness and/or inability to cut public spending.”