“Sick Man of Europe” UK Outperforming Eurozone Rivals

The IMF’s downgrade of its growth forecast for the UK economy this year is being seized upon to pursue the narrative that Brexit is hurting Britain while Eurozone economies grow. One Guardian headline says the UK has become “the sick man of Europe”. If you look past the headlines it’s a different story…

The UK is predicted to grow 1.7% in 2017, more than France (1.5%) and Italy (1.3%). Not sure how that makes Britain the sick man of Europe. Germany is forecast to grow 1.8%, just 0.1% more than Britain – which is forecast to be in the middle of the G7 performance table. The supposedly burgeoning Euro area has a 1.9% growth forecast, described as “solid” by the IMF. That is only 0.2% higher than the apparently disastrous UK. And the Eurozone is growing at its slowest pace in six months. Britain’s forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 1.5% growth. Breathless pundits can calm down…

Today’s “downgrade” to 1.7% this year should be viewed in the context of the IMF’s referendum forecast of negative growth for 2017 in the event of a Brexit vote. The new numbers are of course a massive upgrade on their original prediction. It wasn’t just Brexit that exposed the IMF sham – in 2014 Christine Lagarde asked “Do I have to go on my knees” as she grovelled to the British government for her incorrect forecasts about austerity. No one should be taking IMF forecasts seriously any more…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

David Davis zings the Standard’s editor…

“I don’t read the Evening Standard, and if I’m going to take lessons on rule by decree, it won’t be from the editor.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser Red Robbins: May’s Brexit Supremo is Soviet Sympathiser
May Talks Down CETA Plus Option May Talks Down CETA Plus Option
DEx-ODUS Continues DEx-ODUS Continues
EU Berets at LibDem Conference EU Berets at LibDem Conference
Cabinet Brexit Split: Where They Stand Cabinet Brexit Split: Where They Stand
Gardiner: Watson Not Up To Explaining Single Market Late at Night Gardiner: Watson Not Up To Explaining Single Market Late at Night
Boris Article Wasn’t Wrong About £350 Million Boris Article Wasn’t Wrong About £350 Million
Rudd: I Don’t Want Boris Managing Brexit Rudd: I Don’t Want Boris Managing Brexit
Dyson: No Deal Brexit Won’t Hurt UK Dyson: No Deal Brexit Won’t Hurt UK
Watch: New No 10 “Road to Brexit” Social Media Strategy Watch: New No 10 “Road to Brexit” Social Media Strategy
Farage to Juncker: “You’ve Learnt Nothing From Brexit” Farage to Juncker: “You’ve Learnt Nothing From Brexit”
Juncker: EU Will Expand and Have Its Own Army Juncker: EU Will Expand and Have Its Own Army
Bridges: Transition Until End of 2022 Bridges: Transition Until End of 2022
Guido’s Labour Brexit Explainer As Seen in Commons Guido’s Labour Brexit Explainer As Seen in Commons
Mini-Nuclear Plants Produce Cheap Energy Mini-Nuclear Plants Produce Cheap Energy
Full List: Labour Rebels Full List: Labour Rebels
Full List: MPs Who Voted to Block Brexit Full List: MPs Who Voted to Block Brexit
Corbyn’s Single Market Shambles Corbyn’s Single Market Shambles
Labour’s Brexit Policy Clearly Explained Labour’s Brexit Policy Clearly Explained
Flint: Labour MPs Must Rebel Flint: Labour MPs Must Rebel