Polling Died in the Margin of Error

polling-rip

Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population. They can cling to irrelevant popular vote share qualifications. The fact is the industry has failed to call the right result, a hat-trick of fail.

With all their PhDs, data models and 99% confidence levels they missed it – again. This will of course give heart to Corbynistas who dont believe their hero has a double digit deficit against the Tories. Madame Le Pen will be measuring up the curtains for the Élysée Palace and no one will be paying much attention to pollsters prognostications. Gut instinct is back in fashion…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Francois Fillon offers this bold pitch to the French people:

“France is bigger than my mistakes.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

May’s Clean Sweep May’s Clean Sweep
Hacks Aired Farage-Graph Concerns to Editor Hacks Aired Farage-Graph Concerns to Editor
Bloomberg Thinks Bankers Bluffing About Brexodus Bloomberg Thinks Bankers Bluffing About Brexodus
Amazon Outage Amazon Outage
Green Leader: I Killed Someone Green Leader: I Killed Someone
Watch: Nick Timothy Gets Crick’d Watch: Nick Timothy Gets Crick’d
New Political Editors Announced New Political Editors Announced
Corbyn Spinner’s Sex and Drugs Novel Corbyn Spinner’s Sex and Drugs Novel
Experts Wrong About Polar Bears Too Experts Wrong About Polar Bears Too
Read: McDonnell’s Coup Warning Read: McDonnell’s Coup Warning
Oscars: What Happened in Slow-Motion Oscars: What Happened in Slow-Motion
Watch: Snarling, Angry Corbyn Watch: Snarling, Angry Corbyn
Gerald Kaufman Dead Gerald Kaufman Dead
Sunday Shows Sunday Shows
Arron Banks’ Hostile UKIP Take-Over Arron Banks’ Hostile UKIP Take-Over
Well Done Our SNPs Well Done Our SNPs
Electoral Commission Investigating Everybody Electoral Commission Investigating Everybody
Watch: McDonnell Blames Blair and Mandelson for Copeland Watch: McDonnell Blames Blair and Mandelson for Copeland
Watch: Nuttall Can’t Find Getaway Car Watch: Nuttall Can’t Find Getaway Car