Polling Died in the Margin of Error

polling-rip

Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population. They can cling to irrelevant popular vote share qualifications. The fact is the industry has failed to call the right result, a hat-trick of fail.

With all their PhDs, data models and 99% confidence levels they missed it – again. This will of course give heart to Corbynistas who dont believe their hero has a double digit deficit against the Tories. Madame Le Pen will be measuring up the curtains for the Élysée Palace and no one will be paying much attention to pollsters prognostications. Gut instinct is back in fashion…




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Quote of the Day

Dominic Raab wrote in his letter of resignation…

“This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust,” he told the PM, concluding: “I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election… I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom. I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit…”

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