City Starts to See Capital Flight, Lehmans Regulatory Mess Forces More Selling, Italy Could Bring Down the Euro

The return of socialism to British shores and the expropriation under terror laws of Icelandic assets has unnerved some foreign investors. The problem with the government doing things out of expediency in pursuit of headlines is that the actions are remembered long after the headlines have faded. “If it can happen to Iceland it can happen to us” some of the huge sovereign wealth funds will be thinking. Trust is key to successful markets, would you risk trusting this government?

Elsewhere fund managers are seeking a quick resolution of Lehmans bankruptcy issues, billions remain frozen in accounts resulting in margin calls on fund managers unable to retrieve securities from the Lehmans administrator – making them forced sellers and an extra downward pressure on London’s markets. The FSA or the Bank of England needs to untangle this mess urgently. Unfortunately it is unclear who has responsibility under Gordon’s regulatory regime.

City law firms are dusting off old legal tomes from the seventies on sovereign defaults – when countries go into bankruptcy – Iceland is on the edge. What will surprise many is that Italy is the second candidate for bankruptcy. How will the Euro survive a member country’s financial collapse? Italy has cooked the books since before even joining the euro. Bond markets know it, the wide spread between Italian government bonds and German government bonds shows that many believe that European unity will not include the Bundesbank standing behind Italian Buoni del. Tesoro Pluriennali. If Italy fails what happens to the European project?




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