Lies, Lies and Damned Statistics

Over at politicalbetting.com the shrewd Mike Smithson has a slightly different take on yesterday’s ICM poll giving Labour an 8% lead. He has drilled down into the data and discovered that “the equivalent of nearly a quarter of those surveyed who said they had voted Labour last time were not going to do so again.”

The Wizard of Oz, Lynton Crosby, the man the Tories have hired to help them win the next general election, will no doubt be reflecting on that. He wants to de-motivate disillusioned Blair voters to such an extent that they stay at home. Thus Howard is told to keep repeating the “you can’t trust Blair” mantra because some Tory wonk told me their research says it hits home particularly with Labour voters. I still wouldn’t bet the ranch on the Tories winning just yet – Mike did also bet on a Kerry win….


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Quote of the Day

Writing in this week’s Spectator Diary, the former Chancellor and Evening Standard editor attempted to encapsulate how Boris operates…

“My children have the measure of our prime minister. A couple of years ago, my son and I went for a lovely Sunday lunch at his house in Oxfordshire — where he has a Kalashnikov mounted on the wall. Boris suggested we play a game. A tug of war, but with a difference. The rope is tied around your waist and the contest takes place across a swimming pool. If you lose you end up in the water, fully clothed.

That’s Johnson for you: fun, inventive but ruthless. I suspect his brother Jo had one ducking too many.”

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