Thursday, October 9, 2014

Carswell and Farage Solve Major Policy Disagreement

Last month Douglas Carswell revealed one issue he was at odds with with Nigel Farage:

“I have discovered one major policy difference with Nigel Farage. After a busy few hours meeting and greeting local people, he prefers to pop into a local café. I keep on trying to get him to go to McDonald’s for a McFlurry.”

Today in Clacton they settled their differences:

Whipping up a storm…

UKIP Call in the Cavalry

Today’s By-Elections: The Numbers

In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:

Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:

Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:

We should have the results in the early hours…

Good Morning, It’s By-Election Day

The polls are open down in Clacton and up in Heywood and Middleton, with the results expected in the early hours of tomorrow morning. When Guy News travelled to Clacton high street we couldn’t find a single punter planning on voting Tory:

Barring a major upset Douglas Carswell will be a UKIP MP this time tomorrow, and Labour will be welcoming their race card-playing Unite-backed candidate Liz McInnes to Westminster. Happy birthday to David Cameron, 48 today…

Friday, October 3, 2014

Labour Play the By-Election Race Card
Heywood and Middleton Candidate: White is “Ordinary”

“I’m just an ordinary white working class person,” says Liz McInnes, Labour’s candidate in Heywood and Middleton, where UKIP have risen 28% in the polls since 2010. Does she mean non-white voters aren’t “ordinary”? Didn’t take long for Labour to stoop to dog whistle politics…

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Shapps Confirms PM Will Campaign in Clacton

Many thought the PM would want to avoid the UKIP landslide. Apparently not…

In case you missed the Guy News special report during conference, it’s not looking good for the Tories on the Essex coast:

Guido is not sure a visit from Dave will do much to turn that around…

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

UKIP Trolls Lobby With Donation Damp Squib

Not content with inviting the press to a media reception in Doncaster and then making them pay for their own drinks, UKIP this afternoon dragged half of Her Majesty’s loyal press corp to Bristol only to disappoint them with a Thick of It-style non-announcement. Despite stoking rumours of another defection, in the end the press pack had to make do with Tory turncoat Arron Banks announcing he would be upping his donation to £1 million:

Not enough to knock Dave off the News at Ten, though a million quid will pay for a lot of posters…

UKIP Banks on Mystery Donation Figure…
…and Don’t Mention His Mrs and Mike Hancock

There is some bafflement in Tory circles this morning over from where exactly UKIP have plucked the quarter of a million pound figure for defector Arron Bank’s donations to the Conservative Party since 2005. A hungover scan of the Electoral Commission website by Guido shows only two donations of £25,000 from Banks to two Tory branches since Cameron became leader: Thornbury & Yate and Northavon, and no money to the central party. Which makes the £250,000 being punted on the news channels look a little iffy.

Leaving that aside this initial confusion while it’s investigated, what will Arron Banks’ new friends at UKIP have to say about his wife’s somewhat mysterious acquisition of the right to stay in the UK? Banks married Ekaterina Paderina in 2001, who regular readers will remember was a good chum of LibDem turbo-perve Mike Hancock:

“Miss Paderina came to Britain from Ekaterinburg in eastern Russia on a student visa in the late 1990s. In November 1998 she met and married Eric Butler a retired merchant seaman from Portsmouth, who was more than twice her age. Immigration officials were suspicious about the marriage and Miss Paderina was informed she could face deportation. But after seeking help from their local MP, Mr Hancock, Miss Paderina was allowed to stay in Britain, despite her marriage to Mr Butler allegedly lasting just three months.”

According to Paderina’s ex, Handy-cock “went out of his way to help the blonde Russian after she paid several visits to his constituency office.” Rather awkwardly for Banks, Hancock’s seat is very high up the list of UKIP targets that he’s now funding… 

UPDATE: UKIP sources are confident of the figure. They immediately point to an outstanding loan from 2007 of £75,000 from Banks’ Panacea Finance to the Thornbury association, as well as the £50,000 given in his own name. So that’s halfway there then…

Thin Purple Line: Labour UKIP Attack Tempts Fate

Labour are going big on their ‘UKIP are more Tory than the Tories’ line this morning following the defection of Tory donor Arron Banks to Nigel Farage’s party. Attack dog Michael Dugher tells the Guardian:

“David Cameron is haemorrhaging support and his authority is ebbing away. He can’t control his party, who clearly have no confidence in his leadership. And once again we see that Ukip are reliant on Tory money as well as Tory policy and Tory politicians, putting paid to the idea that they stand up for working people.”

Continuing with the same rhetoric they used to fight the tanks on their lawn up in Doncaster last week:

The problem with this line is that for increasing numbers of voters in Labour strongholds up north, UKIP is becoming more Labour than Labour. Traditional Labour voters are already switching over, and Dugher and co and going to be left red-faced when inevitably a big name party figure jumps ship and completely discredits this attack. First Labour ignored UKIP, then they laughed at them, but what happens if one of their MPs was to defect?

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Eurosceptics: We Have Been Tories Longer Than Cameron
Mark Pritchard Denies Defection Rumour

Tory conference is getting itself into a right lather about who might be the next defector to UKIP, with an, as yet, baseless rumour that someone will jump in time for Cameron’s speech tomorrow. It would certainly be a punchy move, and Guido wonders whether the public would like such a brazenly calculated departure.

Right-wingers are queuing up to say ‘it ain’t me, guv’. Mark Pritchard tells Guido:

“I will not be defecting to UKIP. My beating heart is Conservative. I joined the Party long before David Cameron – and I will still be part of it long after David Cameron is gone.”

There is also growing talk of a ‘put or shut up’ style ‘well go on then’ moment for the Prime Minister, which would please the likes of Matthew Parris. It would certainly take the sting out of any future drip, drip, drip of defectors.


Seen Elsewhere

Politicians Brought Down by Twitter | CityAm
Ed the Biggest Loser in Rochester | Trevor Kavanagh
A Just Way to Manage Migration | Mats Persson
Farage is Right | Lord Ashcroft
Give Miliband a Darwin Award | Boris Johnson
Mosley Offered Labour £1 Million | Indy
EU Silences Our Voice | Matt Ridley
Even Ed’s Friends Call Him ‘Bad Luck Magnet’ | Mail
BBC: It Was Guido Wot Won It | MediaGuido
Nick Robinson’s Britain First Selfie | Metro
Dyson: Leave German Dominated EU, Join EFTA |


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Ralph Miliband on the English…

“The Englishman is a rabid nationalist. They are perhaps the most nationalist people in the world.”



Left on Left says:

The lefties are attacking because the panellist is a millionaire and lives in a London home worth upwards of two million. Someone had best tell them he’s called Ed Miliband.


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