69% of the public agree with Guido that MPs should not be allowed to sit on the committee that judges whether politicians are guilty of fiddling their expenses, according to a Survation poll for Breitbart London. 47% say Maria Miller makes them less likely to vote Tory in 2015, 55% say Dave has handled it badly and the same number say Miller is the worst expenses cheat since 2009. But you keep on fighting for her, Prime Minister…
Big exclusive polling by the Daily Politics today. Who do you most trust to manage the economy? Cameron/Osborne 58%, Miliband/Balls 42% – damning for Labour. A glimmer of hope for Ed that he is seen as less weird than Farage, but a very small silver lining. Here is what the people think:
Via Populus / Daily Politics.
If you read the pundits, for example Jonathan Freedland and Polly Toynbee, the budget was aimed at older voters to counteract UKIP’s attraction to older more traditional small ‘c’ conservative voters. This is the pundit’s explanation for the poll lead collapse by Labour – now down to just 1%. Pundits claim Osborne has cunningly found granny’s political g-spot.
Has he really? Here is the move post budget in Tory support:
Younger voters up 5%, middle years up 3%, grey-haired support unchanged for the Tories. Whereas for Ed Miliband:
Labour has actually gained older voters perhaps nostalgic for the Kinnock type socialism now offered by Miliband. Weird Ed has lost 6% support from young voters, slightly less from middle age voters and gained 2% more support from aging lefties. Don’t think this is a random poll error – the YouGov results above are based on combining 8 polls to give some good sample sizes. Pundits will no doubt mull this over and recalibrate their musings. Guido has a working hypothesis, backed up by some data: Ed just isn’t cool. He’s an uncool weirdo that younger voters don’t want to be associated with, he has loser written all over him. 51 per cent of 18-24 year olds describe Ed Miliband as weird, the percentage of the Shadow Cabinet that agrees is even higher…
After four years as leader the British public still thinks Ed Miliband is a weirdo who was the unpopular bed-wetting swot that got bullied at school and picked last for sport teams.
All vote winning qualities…
Buzzfeed’s YouGov poll today shows Ed is seen as by far the weirdest party leader, with 51% of 18-24 year olds describing him as weird. That’s 50% weirder than Cameron. YouGov find that 29% think Ed Miliband is doing well as Labour leader, 60% badly, a negative net score of minus 31% compared to David Cameron’s minus 9%. As Guido wrote last week, these are not the numbers for a Prime Minister in Waiting, and the public literally laugh at Labour’s ideas.
The weirdo evidence is compelling…
The deficit will be 6.6% this year and 5.5% next year. That’s £108 billion this year, then £95 billion and £75 billion over the next two years. The OBR now forecasts a small surplus of 0.2% in 2018/19. Guido thinks these revised numbers will yet again be revised, but they’re strong enough to dangle in front of the voters in 2015.
Chuka Umunna seemed to have had some difficulty with the basic facts during his interview on the World at One this lunchtime. Somewhat worryingly for a shadow business secretary, Chuka reckons:
“Most of our thirteen years in office we didn’t have a debt, er, a deficit, because we hadn’t had the financial crash.”
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Allow Guido to explain slowly. As this handy graph from the Spectator shows, the last government spent more than it was bringing in from 2002 onwards.
Chuka’s claim that Labour did not run a deficit for most of its time in power is patently untrue…
Guido India would never run out of copy…
Guido has obtained the top-secret Conservative Party parliamentary candidates list – and it doesn’t look like the Tories’ “women problem” will be going away. As Guido revealed in yesterday’s Sun, less than a third of the names on the list are women, just 31%. This despite Cameron’s promise to get more women on board and him privately blaming Tory associations for not selecting female candidates, though actually it is CCHQ who have approved twice as many men as women for selection. Even then the overwhelming majority of safe seats which have already chosen candidates have been won by men. Labour’s Michael Dugher is scornful, he tells Guido: “Female Tories will still be in a minority and David Cameron has broken all his promises to do anything about it.” Stay tuned for more revelations from the leaked Tory candidates list…
The FT has a great spot this morning:
“There are six people writing the manifesto and five of them went to Eton; the other went to St Paul’s,” one Conservative MP in a marginal constituency told the Financial Times. A senior minister said the make-up of the prime minister’s team was a bad advertisement for social mobility.
David Blanchflower, Gordon Brown’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, has come as close as his arrogance allows him to admitting he was totally wrong about everything. Back in 2009 the out-of-luck economist gazed into his faulty crystal ball and predicted that unemployment would top 5 million if the Tories came into power.[…]
At the beginning of the year Guido predicted that the data would soon show that Ed’s “Cost-of-Living Crisis” was at an end. Today inflation fell to 2%, hitting the Bank of England’s target for the first time in four years and last month saw reported UK wage growth hit a six year high.[…]
In the last 7 days 68,743 visitors visited 174,969 times viewing 282,820 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:
- Data Shows Cost-of-Living Crisis About to End
- IMF Contemplating Mass Expropriation in €-Zone
- New Year Honours Establishment Cronyism – Troughing MPs, Spinners, Aides and Donors Bunged Gongs
- Labour’s Gym Spin Machine Needs to Row Back
- Review of 2013: A Very Bad Year for MPs in Guido’s Crosshairs
- Cameron Optimistic for 2014 – Pundits Divided for 2015
- Pardon Snowden, He Blew Whistle on NSA Crimes
If you want to see a round-up of the stats for 2013 with fireworks, take a look here.[…]
Top Labour thinker Luciana Berger has already been widely derided for her spandex-clad election winner that she unveiled last night:
“Millions of people across the country will want to kick-start 2014 by getting fitter and more active. There is a real risk however that many people will be put off from keeping to their New Year’s resolutions by soaring gym charges and David Cameron’s failure to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.”
Berger went on to claim: “A yearly pass now costs £368 on average, an increase of £15 since 2010”.[…]