Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses

Ipsos MORI: Not a Single Labour PPC Thinks the Deficit is Important

From this morning’s Ipsos Mori election briefing:

Not a single potential Labour MP thinks the government spending, or the deficit is most important.

Kerching!

Via Paul Blanchard

The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:

Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:

day-pols-didnt-turn

Too late to change the splash?

Labour Losing the PPC/Oxbridge Social Mobility Battle

Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis by the Insight Consulting Group, more newly-elected MPs would be university educated in a Parliament where Labour has the largest party (158) as opposed to the Conservatives (139). So much for being the party of social mobility… 

No Natalie, Capitalism Has Delivered an 80% Decline in World Poverty

As newsrooms across the land stop what they are doing to read the Green Party’s response to Labour’s non-dom announcement, it is worth picking Natalie Bennett up on this:

“The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top of society while those at the bottom struggle to get by.”

Now hold on just a darn prosperity-spreading cotton-picking second. Over the last four decades the world poverty rate – people living on a dollar a day or less – has plummetted. As this graph from CarpeDiem shows, in 1970 almost 30% of the globe was impoverished. 40 years later that number is as low as 5%:

Rather than more of “those at the bottom struggling to get by” over the last four decades, the world poverty rate has fallen 80%. For all the ideological socialist rhetoric, the cold hard facts show that capitalism has freed hundreds of millions from the clutches of poverty.

More Fantasy Election Numbers

It’s Labour’s big health day, so Guido was amused to find this leaflet in his inbox over the weekend. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 it is illegal to knowingly provide false statements on election literature. Just ask Phil Woolas if you think they are joking…

Up in Wirral West they are throwing the absolute kitchen sink at Esther McVey, but given all the ammo they have with her, this Labour leaflet looks very sloppy:

“Tories have: Cut thousands of nurses, doctors and GPs”? Odd, given that since 2010 there are 9,500 more doctors and 6,900 more nurses providing healthcare, according to official NHS statistics. Even odder that Shadow Public Health Minister Luciana Berger had no qualms delivering this leaflet when she visited the seat on Saturday. Given that the local Labour candidate Margaret Greenwood claims to be an NHS expert, you might have thought she would know what she was talking about.

Saturday Seven Up

SATURDAY-SEVEN-UP-2

This week 201,487 visitors visited 573,123 times viewing 989,617 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Reality Check: Nothing Changed

post-debate

As the spin-room packs up after the only TV debate the PM will take part in, what has really changed? The candidates were prepped for weeks, even Natalie Bennett remembered her talking points, each will have gotten something from the debate. Cameron got to look Prime Ministerial, Miliband looked a lot better than the he does when eating a bacon sandwich, Farage confirmed his Marmite status, fervently liked and disliked, Sturgeon really showed her mettle. Clegg was reasonable, Leanne Wood will have made them proud back in Wales. The spin-doctors will highlight where their candidate won on the issues, satisfied at least that their candidate didn’t screw up. 

On the numbers there was a great deal of variation between the pollsters on the key question of who won the debate? Leaving out the also rans of Clegg, Bennett and Wood the pollsters really differed – ICM said Miliband shaded it on 25% and Sturgeon came fourth after Cameron and Farage, YouGov had it in exactly the opposite order with Sturgeon first, followed by Farage, Cameron and then Miliband on only 15%. The double digit difference between first and fourth place and the exact reversing of the order does nothing for the collective credibility of pollsters.

In these circumstances is averaging the poll results really meaningful?  There was more clarity with the issue based polling which confirmed what we already know; Cameron is a clear winner on the economy, Miliband wins on the NHS and Farage wins on immigration. No news…

Did the TV debate enhance democracy? Last night two-thirds of TV viewers didn’t even care enough to watch the TV show that the political class has obsessed over for months. With only 7 million viewers it had a million fewer viewers than that other exemplar of participatory democracy, The Voice.

Are You Happier Than You Were Four Years Ago?

Depending on whether you believe the IFS or Ed Balls, the jury is out on Reagan’s question of “are you better off than you were four years ago”. One barometer that cannot be statistically disputed however is the question […]

+ READ MORE +

Another Shot Fox: IFS Say Yes To Reagan Question

Last year Ed Balls wrote:

‘”Are you better off than you were four years ago?” That was the question Ronald Reagan famously asked the American people in his first Presidential election campaign.

The answer back in 1980 was no

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting […]

+ READ MORE +

Clegg and Cameron at Sixes and Sevens

Red magazine have been quizzing the party leaders…

Tell us in six words why we should vote Lib Dem?

“Stronger economy. Fairer society. Opportunity for all.”

Yep, that would be seven words.

Tell us in six words why we should

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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