Growth Lower Than Expected: Slows to 0.3%

Today’s growth figures from the ONS are lower than expected:

  • GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 2014.
  • Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

Ed Balls?

Data Shows Miliband Less Sexy Than Coalition Leaders

yougov-attractiveness

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

The Borrowers

IFS verdict…

Here are the top lines:

  • Tories: debt as a share of national income reduced from 80% in 2014–15 to 72% by 2019–20
  • Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP plans, debt in 2019–20 could be more like 77%, 75% and 78% respectively
  • Labour have been much less clear about exactly what level of deficit reduction they want to achieve than the Tories
  • The Tories need to spell out substantially more detail of how they will deliver the overall fiscal targets they have set themselves
  • The SNP’s fiscal numbers imply the same reduction in borrowing over the next parliament as Labour
  • Under the SNP, the period of austerity would be longer than under the other three parties

Ultimately, the IFS is scathing of all parties:

“the electorate is at best armed with only an incomplete picture of what they can expect from any of these four parties”

Even under the most ‘austere’ plans, those of the Tories, debt as a share of national income will still be 72%…

Masterful LibDem Graph

A LibDem leaflet from Wantage: 

Guido was commended by Royal Statistical Society at the Statistical Excellence in Journalism Awards 2014, so is in a strong position to pass judgement on such matters. Looks fine to him…

The Graph That Ruins Miliband’s Argument

Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:

Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”

Really, Ed?

The financial crisis caused the deficit that Labour ran in 2002/3?

And grew in 2003/4?

And in 2004/5?

And in 2005/6?

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…” in 2006/7?

And in 2007/8?

Really, Ed?

Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses

Ipsos MORI: Not a Single Labour PPC Thinks the Deficit is Important

From this morning’s Ipsos Mori election briefing:

Not a single potential Labour MP thinks the government spending, or the deficit is most important.

Kerching!

Via Paul Blanchard

The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:

Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:

day-pols-didnt-turn

Too late to change the splash?

Labour Losing the PPC/Oxbridge Social Mobility Battle

Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis […]

+ READ MORE +

No Natalie, Capitalism Has Delivered an 80% Decline in World Poverty

As newsrooms across the land stop what they are doing to read the Green Party’s response to Labour’s non-dom announcement, it is worth picking Natalie Bennett up on this:

“The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top

[…]

+ READ MORE +

More Fantasy Election Numbers

It’s Labour’s big health day, so Guido was amused to find this leaflet in his inbox over the weekend. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 it is illegal to knowingly provide false statements on election literature. Just ask […]

+ READ MORE +

Saturday Seven Up

SATURDAY-SEVEN-UP-2

This week 201,487 visitors visited 573,123 times viewing 989,617 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Ken Clarke tells the Ben Fellows trial:

“The idea that I would go strolling off in order to grope a man in an office is highly unlikely.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

GMB UNION SUE UBER GMB UNION SUE UBER
Who Will Be UKIP’s Mayoral Candidate? Who Will Be UKIP’s Mayoral Candidate?
Meanwhile, in Venezuela… Meanwhile, in Venezuela…
TWITTER EMPLOYEES JUMP FROM SINKING SHIP TWITTER EMPLOYEES JUMP FROM SINKING SHIP
Times Trolls Burnham Times Trolls Burnham
CHAMPAGNE SOCIALISTS BACK CORBYN CHAMPAGNE SOCIALISTS BACK CORBYN

SINN FEIN SHOULD “TAKE INSPIRATION” FROM ARMED UPRISING SINN FEIN SHOULD “TAKE INSPIRATION” FROM ARMED UPRISING
ALL CHANGE AT GREEN PARTY HQ ALL CHANGE AT GREEN PARTY HQ
I Can’t Believe He’s Not Tory! I Can’t Believe He’s Not Tory!
UBER DESTROYING RACIST TAXI INDUSTRY UBER DESTROYING RACIST TAXI INDUSTRY
Could Labour Fall Apart Under Corbyn? Could Labour Fall Apart Under Corbyn?
Hilarious Prankster Hilarious Prankster
GREENPEACE LIVID GREENPEACE LIVID
Did Labour Leadership Candidates Smoke Dope? Did Labour Leadership Candidates Smoke Dope?
Another Andy Flip Flop Another Andy Flip Flop
Clegg Whores Himself Out Clegg Whores Himself Out
RETURN OF THE FRACKERS, CUADRILLA TO APPEAL RETURN OF THE FRACKERS, CUADRILLA TO APPEAL
FLASHBACK: TORY WHIP ON SCANDAL INVOLVING “SMALL BOYS” FLASHBACK: TORY WHIP ON SCANDAL INVOLVING “SMALL BOYS”
“Owen Jones is the 1%” “Owen Jones is the 1%”
Jedward Told to “F**k Off” By Indy Staff Jedward Told to “F**k Off” By Indy Staff
CLIMATE LOBBY DRAFT ARNIE CLIMATE LOBBY DRAFT ARNIE
MOD FORCED TO FIGHT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION… WITH TWEETDECK MOD FORCED TO FIGHT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION… WITH TWEETDECK
Mental Marxists: Tories Will Gas the Poor Mental Marxists: Tories Will Gas the Poor
MONEYBAGS BURNHAM TRAILS DESPITE SIX FIGURE FUNDING BONANZA MONEYBAGS BURNHAM TRAILS DESPITE SIX FIGURE FUNDING BONANZA
ROLL CALL OF LABOUR ‘MORONS’ ROLL CALL OF LABOUR ‘MORONS’
YOUGOV: CORBYN 17% AHEAD FIRST PREFS YOUGOV: CORBYN 17% AHEAD FIRST PREFS
BBC In Shocking Ice Revelation BBC In Shocking Ice Revelation
BBC Avoids Questioning Janner BBC Avoids Questioning Janner
TORY MP: SNP DON’T KNOW THEIR RS FROM THEIR ELBOW TORY MP: SNP DON’T KNOW THEIR RS FROM THEIR ELBOW