Comres have a new voter turnout model for ‘Lazy Labour’. The key takeaway from this is that in mainly poor constituencies turnout is 20 percentage points lower than in mainly affluent constituencies. Not too posh to be politically pushy…
Much amusement as Andy Burnham’s favourite blogger continues to damage the Labour cause. After Burnham moved yesterday to distance himself from dodgy photoshop nutter ‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke, it emerges that Team Miliband also viewed the proven bullsh*t artist as an asset:
“When one Labour staffer attempted to dismiss Clarke’s latest laughable graphic, the two staffers were heard saying ‘we must not underestimate Éoin Clarke’.”
Guido suspects that there was a touch of academic solidarity occurring here…
Much has been made of ‘Dr’ Eoin’s eminent thesis on radical Irish feminism, but what does he actually do as a day job? His fans are quick to point out his academic background when defending his dodgy data and daft campaigns. He’s not even a real teaching academic:
He’s the librarian and tea-boy at a third rate university…
Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.
The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.
They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:
“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”
Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…
This British Election Study survey shows Indy readers are a mixed bunch and as many back the coalition parties as Labour. So that endorsement will please and anger readers in equal measure. No surprises in the data.
Today’s growth figures from the ONS are lower than expected:
It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.
MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…
Here are the top lines:
Ultimately, the IFS is scathing of all parties:
“the electorate is at best armed with only an incomplete picture of what they can expect from any of these four parties”
Even under the most ‘austere’ plans, those of the Tories, debt as a share of national income will still be 72%…
Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:
Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:
“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”
This is a poll of polls average for today only:
Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.
As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the latest polls out tonight from ComRes and YouGov have the Tories in first:
Which makes this Guardian splash, released before the ComRes and YouGov polls, look rather premature:
Too late to change the splash?[…]
Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis by the Insight Consulting Group, more newly-elected MPs would be university educated in a Parliament where Labour has the largest party (158) as opposed to the Conservatives (139).[…]
As newsrooms across the land stop what they are doing to read the Green Party’s response to Labour’s non-dom announcement, it is worth picking Natalie Bennett up on this:
“The last four decades have seen wealth accumulate at the top of society while those at the bottom struggle to get by.”
Now hold on just a darn prosperity-spreading cotton-picking second. […]
It’s Labour’s big health day, so Guido was amused to find this leaflet in his inbox over the weekend. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 it is illegal to knowingly provide false statements on election literature. Just ask Phil Woolas if you think they are joking…
Up in Wirral West they are throwing the absolute kitchen sink at Esther McVey, but given all the ammo they have with her, this Labour leaflet looks very sloppy:
“Tories have: Cut thousands of nurses, doctors and GPs”?[…]