“Egomaniac” Izzard Cost Moderates NEC Majority

ex-izzard

The Labour moderates, formerly known as Blairites, are crying into their mocha lattes this morning that Eddie Izzard not only lost out (as usual) on getting a place on the NEC, he also cost them up to three seats and any chance of a majority.

The two charts above show the clean sweep of the top six places by the the hard-left (reds). If Izzard’s votes were redistributed to the moderates (pinkos), which is mathematically possible if not probable, they would have won three more seats and regained control of the NEC. “It was Izzard wot lost it for the moderates. Had that ego-maniac not run, we’d have had 71,000 more votes up for grabs that could have gone to moderates. He’s basically given an NEC seat to the Corbynistas. When it comes to politics, Eddie is a very good comedian” laments a Blairite die-hard. By Guido’s calculations if just over half of Izzard’s votes had gone to moderates, Ellie Reeves, Bex Bailey and Johanna Baxter would be holding the line against the Corbynistas on the NEC…

The Owen Smith-supporting Labour First faction emailed supporters optimistically that

Contrary to some of the online and media reaction, this does not give full control of the NEC to Corbyn. There is a net change of just one seat as the PLP section saw a seat go from left to right. When the new NEC takes office after Annual Conference, the solid vote for the Hard Left will be 16 if they all turn up, with 17 others. Thus NEC meetings will continue to be finely balanced and hinge on the personal decisions of the more independent-minded members like Ann Black, and the stance taken by the GMB and Unison. We will win some votes and lose others just like we did in the pre-leadership election meeting. 

Though they go on to say pointedly

If we can avoid a split moderate vote in future contests (Eddie Izzard ran as an independent when we would have been happy to support him if he had asked us) that will help!

It woz Izzard wot lost it…

How Tough Was May on Immigration?

may immigration

Theresa May has so far spent most of her campaign talking tough on immigration, including a threat to EU migrants currently living in the UK. Her team know this is her weak spot – in the next two months we will hear a lot about how May failed to deliver on immigration while in office. The above graph is a snapshot of all fourth quarter immigration estimates during her time as Home Secretary. An estimated 3,443,000 migrants entered the UK, with 1.2 million of those coming directly from EU states. Since 2012, EU immigration has increased every single year, with 2015 proving the highest year since records began in 2006. May’s campaign thinks a few “Go Home” vans are enough to secure her credentials as the strongest candidate on immigration… 

MP Referendum List: Leave Gain

News from Eastbourne suggests that their new Tory MP Caroline Ansell has come off the fence and decided for Leave. In her newsletter, she said: “I had first hoped to remain in a reformed EU. The renegotiation deal says everything about today’s EU – that it is only moving in one direction: ever increasing centralisation.”

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]

Click here to view the entire spreadsheet.

torymps#euref

That puts the number of Tory MPs who openly disagree with David Cameron and George Osborne at 143 or some 43% of the parliamentary party…

True EU Immigration Figure 250,000-a-Year Higher

As Guido predicted yesterday Downing Street has tried to bury the ONS report on migration statistics this morning. You can see why…

In 2014 ONS immigration figures said there were 223,000 “long-term” EU migrants to Britain. Yet that year 421,000 National Insurance numbers were given to EU nationals. Why the discrepancy? Today’s report admits that if the official statistics had included EU migrants working in Britain for under 12 months then the real immigration figure for 2014 would have been 474,000. The ONS figures widely reported at the time missed a quarter of a million people. Remain are spinning that short-term migrants somehow don’t count – yet they still use the NHS, they are still a burden on public services, still claim benefits. The churn of short term migrants also means that the demand is a constant.

ons-nino

Meanwhile the number of EU nationals claiming benefits in Britain has risen by almost 42% in four years, from 92,000 to 130,000. The number of Eastern Europeans claiming out-of-work benefits has risen almost 177% from 22,000 to 61,540.

So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits. This is huge ammunition for the Leave campaign…

Bombshell Migration Statistics Imminent

The rumour doing the rounds in Whitehall is that the bombshell report on active National Insurance numbers will be slipped out early tomorrow. Chris Grayling has been asked to make time for four or five statements, so it looks like Downing Street is planning a dumping day to bury as much bad news as possible. Will the embarrassing NI stats revealing the true level of immigration be released tomorrow? With a ‘major intervention’ then lined up by No. 10 for Friday to try to keep the figures off the front pages…

The number of EU nationals given NI numbers has always been significantly higher than official migration stats. 257,000 EU nationals came to Britain in the year to September 2015, yet 630,000 got NI numbers, including 170,000 Romanians. The official figures are a con – the actual level of immigration is over double what the government claims. This is the opening for the Leave campaign to turn the debate onto immigration…

Shock Study Shows Journalists Twice as Likely to Be Lefties

left-wing-journalists

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism has a new in-depth study of British journalists out. No doubt most reports of the study will focus on the under-representation of minorities, the glass ceiling for women and ignore the finding that British journalists are more godless than most people. That’s because most journalists are lefties….

The survey asked journalists to self define their politics on a 1 to 10 scale. According to their own judgement about half of journalists take a left-of-centre political stance, with barely a quarter outing themselves as right-wing. Right-of-centre political beliefs seemingly increase with seniority:

This pattern differs somewhat between journalists of different ranks and levels of responsibility. Our survey shows that, while the proportion of journalists with a centrist political view stays fairly steady across the ranks, there is a clear increase in right-of-centre journalists in more senior roles, and a corresponding decrease in left-of-centre journalists, particularly above the rank of junior manager.

Clear thinking smarter people apparently do rise to the top in the media meritocracy. Frankly Guido is happy that most of his competitors are left-wing, it makes our output even more unique…

Saturday Seven Up

SATURDAY-SEVEN-UP-2

This week 251,530 visitors visited 611,702 times viewing 1,005,094 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

EU Trade Deficit Hits Record High

DEFICIT GRAPH

Tumbling British exports and an increase in European imports means that the UK’s trade deficit with the EU hit an all time high of £23 billion between November and January.

The trade deficit – the value of exports minus the value of imports – is crucial for measuring British businesses overall performance overseas.

Meanwhile, British exports to the continent are at their lowest since 2009. Divided between the 28 EU member states you get an average gap of over £3 billion per each common market member. Merkel might not want a free trade agreement, but German businesses will… 

Buried away in the ONS’ official data is an increase in EU imports of £674 million in January, while British exports rose a paltry £12 million. This includes a massive £300 million import bung for the Netherlands, while flagging economies Italy and Spain were able to flog us £100 million worth of pasta and sangria each.

They need us more than we need them…

No, Britain Has Not Accepted Just 216 Syrian Refugees

The claim that Britain has accepted a mere 216 Syrian refugees has gone viral on social media, being shared thousands and thousands of times by worthy types who retweet without fact-checking. Just one problem: it’s nonsense.

Official government figures show that we had 1,688 asylum applications from Syrians in 2014, and a further 2,204 in 2015.[…]

+ READ MORE +

No, Corbynmania is Not “Sweeping the Nation”

“A movement is born,” claimed Jezza’s unofficial PR man Owen Jones last week: “across the nation, in every village and town and city you can see this movement emerging”. The hyperbole is even more generous in Owen’s interview with the man himself today: “in the last few weeks Corybnmania has swept across the country”.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Will Straw’s Spinning Swingometer

will-straw

Will Straw is one of the editors of a pamphlet from the Fabians – Never Again” – which basically argues that under Ed Miliband their policy offer was too left-wing. It also boasts that in the seat in which he was standing – Rossendale and Darwen – he increased Labour’s vote by 2,000.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Shocking Cabinet Gender Pay Gap Revealed

cabinet gender pay gap

Following the government announcement today that they will force companies to disclose their gender pay gap, it seems only right to look at how David Cameron performs on the same metric. After all he himself says the requirement will “cast sunlight on the discrepancies and create the pressure we need for change, driving women’s wages up”.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Londoners Look to Driverless Tubes

The tube strike is over and, courtesy of Google Trends, Techno can provide some insight into what Londoners thought of the £50,000-a-year drivers who made them late for work. Searches for “driverless trains” rocketed over the last 24 hours…

driverless trains london

As Techno has revealed before, the only thing stopping the introduction of driverless tubes is the lack of political will to get tough on the trade unionists currently driving them.[…]

+ READ MORE +

What the Welfare Budget Looks Like Minus Pensions

Counting pensions as an old age ‘benefit’ has provided lefties with data-based ammunition against small state conservatives who want to slash the welfare bill. Looking at the graph below, targeting proportionally tiny housing benefits or tax credits looks futile – superficially at least – when 42% of the ‘welfare’ budget is spent on pensions:

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1vXCiAwCbaBdMzp6ZxeY2ag2NCQw3SRKQxZNGd81W9qk/pubchart” query=”oid=1772904818&format=interactive” width=”540″ height=”400″ /]

You can see why lefties love using this statistic – it grossly skews the welfare bill to make it look like we hardly spend anything on the things their opponents want to cut.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Twitter Brain: Mensch Analysed

TWITTER-BRAIN

Guido has heard it said many times that Louise Mensch needs analysis and today we have analysed her Twitter account. Currently she is tweeting pretty incessantly about Tim Hunt, the professor hounded out of public life for making a few humorous remarks about women in science.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Gordon’s Tax and Benefits Mess

tax+benefits

According to an ONS release today the mythical average household is £31 better off after taxes and benefits are taken into account. Think about all the complexities of tax collection collection and benefit calculation, the bureaucracy and time wasted. It really is time for a lower, flatter, simpler, single income tax…

The statistics also confirm that after 5 years of “we’re all in it together” that Osborne has raised taxes on the richest 20% and reduced the burden on the poorest 20%.  […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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