Two weeks ago Dave’s key defence against Tory plotters, his relative popularity compared to the party, was wobbling. Today Peter Kellner has some figures that will have Downing Street breathing a collective sigh of relief. Ed is less popular than Labour, somehow Clegg is less popular than the LibDems, though Cameron is again preferred to his party. Kellner says this is the graph that shows the Tories will lose in 2015 if they ditch Dave…

• Employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 71.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from November 2012 to January 2013
• up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier.
• 29.76 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 24,000 from November 2012 to January 2013
• up 432,000 from a year earlier.
• unemployment rate was 7.8%, unchanged from November 2012 to January 2013
• down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier
• 2.51 million unemployed people, down 5,000 from November 2012 to January 2013 and down 88,000 from a year earlier
• number employed in public sector at lowest level since 2001 at 5.7million
• number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance last month fell by 8,600 to 1.51 million

That last number one for the Tories to cling on to…

UK national newspaper website figures for the last month are out, with the Mail still well out a head. The percentage change is year on year.

-MailOnline: 7,833,182 (up 39%)

-Guardian.co.uk: 4,771,866 (up 23.1%)

-Telegraph.co.uk: 3,041,594 (up 29.8%)

-Mirror: 1,176,217 (up 78%)

-The Sun: 1,698,572 (up 11%)

-Independent: 1,131,150 (62.5%)

-Metro: 406,187 (38,5%)

For the sake of comparison Guido had 516,730 unique visitors in April (up 53%).

Despite the new pay-wall, the Telegraph is beginning to catch up with the freebie Guardian.

Clegg’s strategy in coalition has been to promote the LibDems as the party of fairness. Apparently with no sense of irony, he has attacked the Tories for failing to “adopt the politics of fairness”, told Martha Kearney he is the “voice of fairness” in government, and dreamt up that catchy-as-it-is-believable slogan “Building a fairer Britain”. Unfortunately for Nick, repeating something over and over doesn’t mean the public will believe him.

A YouGov poll out this morning finds only 6% think Clegg would be the most effective leader at making Britain a fairer place. Nearly double that, 11%, choose Nigel Farage as the fairest party leader. There’s bad news for Ed too, he comes second to Dave by 21% to 19%. Topping the poll is public apathy: 29% said no leader could deliver a fairer society. People might disagree about what fairness means, but nearly everyone agrees Clegg won’t deliver it…

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation have actually put out something interesting for a change. Over the last thirty years, Labour supporters’ attitudes to welfare have hardened considerably. In the late eighties 41% believed social injustice was the main cause of poverty, now that figure is just 27%. This can be explained in part by the number that blame laziness amongst those on benefits, up from 13% to 22%. 31% of Labour backers see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared to just 21% thirty years ago. The biggest jump: 46% now believe the welfare state encourages dependency, up from just 16% in 1987. You can see how attitudes have changed among Labour supporters by clicking on the interactive chart above. Ed may want to lead the party of welfare, but his voters are not with him.

Talking of headaches for Dave, last night’s ICM/Guardian poll has UKIP on 18%, their highest ever rating and double their ICM rating for a month ago. Labour, the Tories and the LibDems all lost four points each, with Labour falling below Ed’s fabled 35% target. UKIP are up nine points. What was that about a referendum?

This week 121,113 visitors visited 361,555 times viewing 603,977 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

• Bill Roache AKA Ken Barlow Arrested on Suspicion of Rape
• LISTEN: Ed Miliband’s World at One Car Crash
• Exclusive: What Really Happened With Priti Patel’s Dad
• This UKIP Candidate Definitely Not Racist or Homophobic
• Stuart Hall’s Lawyers Used Leveson to Threaten Media
• Shock as ComRes Poll Puts UKIP on 22%
• Chuka and His Comedy Over-Sized Watches

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Hardly a surprise, but confirmation from Sajid Javid that the government projects billions more will be spent on tax credits over the next few years. The total spend on child tax and working tax credits has jumped from £24.1 billion in 2008-9 to £29.9 billion this year. The figure is projected to rise again to £32.5 billion by 2017-18. Austerity, what austerity?

Public sector net borrowing is barely changed from last year, down slightly to £15.1 billion. Crucially, after distortions, the drop in borrowing is a paltry £300 million. Osborne can still say borrowing is falling, but only just. Unemployment was up last week to 7.9%, as was the Retail Price Index to 3.3%. Public sector net cash requirement rising to £31.3 billion caps off a set of bad figures for Chancellor Zero. Unsurprising that the misery index is up. Will Thursday cheer us up?

N.B. stats bods can check Guido’s adding up here.

One of Maggie’s many memorable memories from the House is her slap down of a young, snivelling Simon Hughes. Channel 4 FactCheck show that she was entirely right: wages went up across the whole spectrum, including for the poorest.

IFS figures show median earnings went up faster under Thatcher than under Major or during Blair’s second and third terms. Everyone got richer on Maggie’s Farm, including the poor. It comes down to this: would you rather be more equal but poorer, or less equal but better off?