Official: Lazy Socialists Lost the Election

Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.

The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.

They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:

“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”

Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…

Newspaper Readers Party Preferences

newspaper-party-affiliation

This British Election Study survey shows Indy readers are a mixed bunch and as many back the coalition parties as Labour. So that endorsement will please and anger readers in equal measure. No surprises in the data. 

Ed Balls Responds to GDP Figures

Growth Lower Than Expected: Slows to 0.3%

Today’s growth figures from the ONS are lower than expected:

  • GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2015 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 2014.
  • Output increased in services by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2015. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with construction falling by 1.6%, production by 0.1% and agriculture by 0.2%.

Ed Balls?

Data Shows Miliband Less Sexy Than Coalition Leaders

yougov-attractiveness

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

The Borrowers

IFS verdict…

Here are the top lines:

  • Tories: debt as a share of national income reduced from 80% in 2014–15 to 72% by 2019–20
  • Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP plans, debt in 2019–20 could be more like 77%, 75% and 78% respectively
  • Labour have been much less clear about exactly what level of deficit reduction they want to achieve than the Tories
  • The Tories need to spell out substantially more detail of how they will deliver the overall fiscal targets they have set themselves
  • The SNP’s fiscal numbers imply the same reduction in borrowing over the next parliament as Labour
  • Under the SNP, the period of austerity would be longer than under the other three parties

Ultimately, the IFS is scathing of all parties:

“the electorate is at best armed with only an incomplete picture of what they can expect from any of these four parties”

Even under the most ‘austere’ plans, those of the Tories, debt as a share of national income will still be 72%…

Masterful LibDem Graph

A LibDem leaflet from Wantage: 

Guido was commended by Royal Statistical Society at the Statistical Excellence in Journalism Awards 2014, so is in a strong position to pass judgement on such matters. Looks fine to him…

The Graph That Ruins Miliband’s Argument

Even after Labour’s manifesto mea culpa about fiscal responsibility, Ed would still not say he thought Labour spent too much before the crisis. He had his audience cheering as he yelled “absolutely we were right to invest in those things”:

Miliband told the Labour manifesto launch:

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…”

Really, Ed?

The financial crisis caused the deficit that Labour ran in 2002/3?

And grew in 2003/4?

And in 2004/5?

And in 2005/6?

“It was the financial crisis that caused the deficit…” in 2006/7?

And in 2007/8?

Really, Ed?

Miliband Beats His Wife

As does Farage.

But Miriam Clegg really thrashes Nick in the Daily Mail poll of Leaders vs Spouses[…]

+ READ MORE +

Ipsos MORI: Not a Single Labour PPC Thinks the Deficit is Important

From this morning’s Ipsos Mori election briefing:

Not a single potential Labour MP thinks the government spending, or the deficit is most important.

Kerching!

Via Paul Blanchard

[…]

+ READ MORE +

The Day the Polls Didn’t Turn

This is a poll of polls average for today only:

Worth noting that the Labour figure is inflated by their very high rating with Panelbase.

As you can see below, TNS, Panelbase and Survation all put Labour ahead, but the […]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Losing the PPC/Oxbridge Social Mobility Battle

Well this is awkward for The People’s Party. Should Labour be the largest party in parliament, 25.51% of MPs are likely to be Oxbridge graduates. However, that number drops to 20.86% in a Conservative-led Parliament. According to research and analysis […]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Mary Creagh’s coded attack on Ed Miliband…

‘I want the country to be united behind a single vision, we aren’t going to do it by sort of having a Rubik’s Cube approach to politics’. 

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