LibDems Spent £1.5 Million on Winning One Euro Seat

The Electoral Commission today reveals how much each party spent on their European election campaigns. The big bucks splashed by the Tories and UKIP meant they paid six figures for each seat won. Labour got best value for money, spending just over a million quid for their 20 seats, or just over £50,000 per MEP.

The LibDems blew £1.5 million with just one MEP to show for it…

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…

Lucy Powell’s Election Expertise

Lucy Powell’s first day in charge of Labour’s election campaign did not do much to quell colleagues’ fears she is not up to the job. At the prime time of 11pm last night Powell sent out her first mass email to Labour supporters, with the subject line “The deep end”. Waving?

In a section titled “How we’re going to win the election”, Powell raises concerns the Tories will “[use] their funding advantage to overwhelm voters with their message via every medium possible — TV, post, billboards, public transport”. Of course, as any vice-chairman of an election campaign would know, in this country outspending your opponent by splashing cash on TV adverts is explicitly prohibited by electoral law.  So was that a mistruth or mis-hire?

UKIP Well Short in South Yorkshire

Labour: 50.02%

UKIP: 31.66%

Tories: 12.52%

English Democrats: 5.8%

Massive electorate. Limited ground operation. Warnings for UKIP here ahead of next year.

2015 Election Leaders’ Debates: Details in Full

These are the proposals from the broadcasters:

  • One head-to-head debate between the two leaders who could become Prime Minister – Conservative and Labour. This debate will be co-produced by Sky News and Channel 4 and chaired by Jeremy Paxman. Kay Burley will introduce the programme and present the post-debate analysis. The whole programme will be carried live on Sky and Channel 4 and their digital platforms, as well as having a major presence across social media.
  • One debate between the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders. This debate will be produced by the BBC and presented by David Dimbleby. It will be broadcast on BBC One with extensive live coverage on other BBC TV and Radio networks and online.
  • One debate between the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP leaders. This debate will be produced and broadcast by ITV. The ITV debate, chaired by Julie Etchingham, will air on ITV’s main channel and online

They have written to the four leaders inviting them to take part…

UPDATE: Farage says yes but might want more: “if the political landscape continues to change we would expect and ask for inclusion in a second debate

UPDATE II: The LibDems say no: “We do not accept proposal that the Lib Dems, as party of government, should be prevented from defending our record in one of the TV debates.”

EXC: Farage Calls for Electoral Commission to Be Abolished

Speaking exclusively to Guido in the media scrum after his press conference, Nigel Farage has called for the Electoral Commission to be abolished for allowing the misleadingly named An Independence From Europe party onto the ballot papers. Farage accepted that the spoiler party cost UKIP an even greater win, the party is furious that Gawain Towler was denied a seat in the South West because of the vote being split by the other party’s “UK Independence Now” slogan. The UKIP leader tells Guido:

“The Electoral Commission was set up if you remember to stop things like the Literal Democrats from ever happening again. In their 13 years of existence, their only achievement that I can see is to have presided over a massive growth in postal voting fraud. They’ve hounded UKIP almost to the point of bankruptcy. We only survived 4-3 at the Supreme Court from going bankrupt. They now allow a party that put UK Independence Now on the ballot paper, that cost us a seat in the South West. Frankly they are not fit for purpose. I’d close the whole thing down and start again.”

Please credit quote to Guido Fawkes.

The Electoral Commission claimed the names of the two parties were sufficiently different. Which is laughable considering it impacted upon the final result…

State of the Parties

The results are in, with the exception of Scotland which does not announce until later today. This is the state of the parties this morning:

Here is the BBC’s earthquake warning map:

You can see the results and all the MEPs elected in full here.

Herman van Rompuy, Jose Manuel Barroso, Jacques Delors, Cathy Ashton, Peter Mandelson, Ken Clarke, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, your boys took one hell of a beating…

European Election Results

SCOTLAND

SNP: 389,503
Lab: 348,219
Con: 231,330
UKIP: 140,534
Green: 108,305
LD: 95,319

MEPs: Ian Hudghton (SNP)David Martin (Lab)Ian Duncan (Con)Alyn Smith (SNP)Catherine Stihler (Lab)David Coburn (UKIP).

LONDON

Labour: 806,959
Con: 495,639
UKIP: 371,133
Green: 196,419
Lib Dem: 148,013

MEPs: Claude Moraes (Lab), Sayed Kamall (Con), Mary Honeyball (Lab), Gerard Batten (UKIP), Lucy Anderson (Lab), Charles Tannock (Con), Seb Dance (Lab), Jean Lambert (Green).

SOUTH EAST

UKIP: 751,439
Con: 723,571
Lab: 342,775
Green: 211,706
LD: 187,876

MEPs: Nigel Farage (UKIP), Dan Hannan (Con), Janice Atkinson (UKIP), Nirj Deva (Con), Annalise Dodds (Lab), Diane James (UKIP), Richard Ashworth (Con), Keith Taylor (Green), Catherine Bearder (LD), Ray Finch (UKIP).

WEST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 428,010
Lab: 363,033
Con: 330,470
LD: 75,648
Green: 71,464

MEPs: Jill Seymour (UKIP), Nina Gill (Lab), Philip Bradbourne (Con), Jim Carver (UKIP), Sion Simon (Lab), Anthea McIntyre (Con), Bill Etheridge (UKIP).

NORTH WEST

LAB: 594,063
UKIP: 481,932
CON: 351,985
Green: 123,075
LD: 105,487

MEPs: Theresa Griffin (Lab), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Jaqueline Foster (Con), Afzal Khan (Lab), Louise Bours (UKIP), Julie Ward (Lab), Sajjid Karim (Con), Steven Woolfe (UKIP).

WALES

Lab: 206,332
UKIP: 201,983
Con: 127,742
Plaid: 111,864
Green: 33,275
LD: 28,930

MEPs: D. Vaughan (Lab)N. Gill (UKIP), K. Swinburne (Con), J. Evans (Plaid).

SOUTH WEST

UKIP: 484,184
Con: 433,151
Lab: 206,124
Green: 166,447
LD: 160,376

MEPs: William Dartmouth (UKIP), Ashley Fox (Con), Julia Reid (UKIP), Julie Girling (CON), Claire Moody (Lab), Molly Scott Cato (Green).

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER

UKIP: 403,630
LAB: 380,189 
CON: 248,945
GREEN: 102,282
LD: 81,108

MEPs: Jane Collins (UKIP), Linda McAvan (Lab), T. Kirkhope (Con), A. Bashir (UKIP), R. Corbett (LAB), M. Hookem (UKIP).

EAST MIDLANDS

UKIP: 368,734
Con: 291,270
Lab: 279,363
Green: 67,066
LD: 60,773

MEPs: Roger Helmer (UKIP), Emma McClarkin (Con), Glenis Willmott (Lab), Margot Parker (UKIP), Andrew Lewer (Con).

EAST

UKIP: 542,812
Con: 446,569
Lab: 271,601
Green: 133,331
LD: 108,010

MEPs: Patrick O’Flynn (UKIP)Vicky Ford (Con), Richard Howitt (Lab), John Agnew (UKIP), Geoffry van Orden (Con), Tim Aker (UKIP), David Campbell-Bannerman (Con)

NORTH EAST

LAB – 221,988
UKIP – 177,660
CON – 107,773
LD – 36,093

MEPs: Jude Kirton-Darling (Lab), Paul Brannen (Lab), Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)

Martin Callanan, the leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, has lost his seat.

UKIP Top Poll in Newark

Two weeks til the by-election…[…]

+ READ MORE +

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far […]

+ READ MORE +

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who […]

+ READ MORE +

Where We Are This Morning

As we go to pixel (7:28am), these are the local election results so far:

  • UKIP is doing huge damage in the Labour heartlands of the North, gaining 86 seats overall with 59 councils declared and on course to win over

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Sajid Javid on when he first met Maggie:

‘I was standing in a group of five or six when she was brought over and introduced to us all. And, no kidding, she just ignored everyone and looked at me and held my hand in both hers, and stared me in the face.

And then she said: “Sajid!” And I said: “Yes.” And she said: “Sajid, you will protect our great island. You will protect our great island!” And I said: “Yes I will.”

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