Imagine it is the afternoon of May 7…

The Tories have received 33% of the popular vote, LibDems 29% and Labour 24%, a strong 6% showing by the BNP concentrated in Labour heartlands has shocked the political system and given the party its first Westminster MP in Stoke, where Labour’s vote split. UKIP’s Nigel Farage has taken Buckingham, after two recounts, by 7 votes.  Ed Balls has lost his Morley and Outwood seat to the Tory hero of election night, Antony Calvert.  The SNP has made strong gains strengthening Alex Salmond’s claims for Scotland to be granted more self determination.

Due to the iniquities of the electoral system Labour is still the largest party in Westminster, just.  Harriet Harman has demanded Gordon Brown resigns and announced her intention to seek the leadership, Miliband hasn’t been seen. Charlie Whelan publicly tweets blame on Mandelson’s electoral strategy and “corrupt Blairites” for Labour’s defeat.  Alastair Campbell is bailed at West London Magistrates’ Court after his live on-screen 3 a.m. drunken assault on Nick Robinson.

After unofficial back-channel communications between Samantha Cameron and her third-cousin at Buckingham Palace all morning, the Queen’s Private Secretary calls the leader of the Conservative Party and asks him to come to the palace.  The Private Secretary then calls Nick Clegg and asks him to come to the palace as well.

In what is the iconic picture of the election, Cameron walks out of his Millbank headquarters along the Thames embankment to 4 Cowley Street where Nick Clegg greets him and together they walk purposefully towards the Mall surrounded by photographers and cameramen as crowds cheer and many ask “which one is which?”

In what were reportedly good natured discussions all morning the terms of a “Change Coalition” had been agreed by 3 pm.  Clegg as expected is Home Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister, Cable is Chancellor, Osborne takes his old sparring partner’s job at Business. Phil Hammond and David Laws are tasked with cutting spending and reforming taxation at the Treasury.  Lord Adonis remains as the government’s Transport Minister, Frank Field returns to the Department for Work and Pensions, both take the Liberal whip. Chris Huhne, ominously for the coalition, chooses to go to the backbench rather than accept cabinet collective responsibility as Defence Minister.

The most difficult horse-trading over the coalition was of course over Europe and electoral reform. Hague went to the FCO much to the relief of the Tory base and Ed Davey becomes the cabinet’s Minister for Constitutional Reform (Douglas Carswell gets a promotion as his deputy with special responsiblity for localism).   The leaders realised that they could not take their respective parties with them if they compromised on either of these two issues.

The average age of the cabinet is now 44, the centre-piece of the Queen’s speech is to be a Great Repeal Bill, undoing 13 years of authoritarian legislation and strengthening civil liberties, restricting the growth of the surveillance and database society. The Big Society reform programme promises to fundamentally re-balance state and society in favour of a smaller more open government.  Cable promises an emergency budget within 30 days signalling tough action on the deficit.  The gilt market hits a 3 year high and the pound rallies 12% on the close.

Norman Tebbit, who was by her bedside, blogs the sad news that Baroness Thatcher has passed away.  Her last words were “Norman, they buried the Labour Party before me.”

Punters on Politics Smarkets says there is a 56% chance of a hung parliament…

This situation maybe familiar: an over-spending left-of-centre government faces election, the centre-right opposition offers a promise of tax cuts and free market reforms to bring economic growth to a country which is on the verge of bankruptcy.

In Hungary overnight Fidesz have swept the socialists out of office winning 52% of the vote to the ruling party’s 19%.

The Fidesz party logo is an orange smiley face and this morning the smile is very broad…

Guido fact: Back in 1988 Fidesz were a little known rag-tag bunch of idealistic libertarian students under threat of arrest from the communists. The great David Hart, fresh from smashing Scargill’s thugs, channeled support to them from the West. Within a year Hungarian communism fell and Fidesz were in government. Another reason to recognise David Hart with an honour.

Guido thinks that overnight counting is an anachronistic waste of people’s time and the civilised, sensible thing to do would be to count the votes the next day when everyone has had a good sleep. Only political junkies love the drama of the late night count.

Iain is claiming victory for his campaign to keep the overnight count.  However there will he admits himself still be nearly thirty pioneering constituencies for next day counting on Friday 7 May. 30 constituencies could easily be the difference between victory and defeat in this election so the result might not be known on the night...

The Downing Street twitter feed will be silenced shortly, the website will be mothballed, SpAds will have already handed in their Blackberries. The Civil Service is now running the country…

Last night saw a bit of Twitter swarming suggesting ConservativeHome founder Tim Montgomerie would be a perfect local candidate for Salisbury. The incumbent Tory MP Robert Key has announced he does not intend to stand at the next election.

Guido hasn’t spoken with Tim, but would commend him for his strength of character and sense of purpose. We don’t agree on much ideologically, but Guido has the utmost respect for him as an operator and an innovator. Friends are pressing Tim to consider standing. As good a candidate as he would undoubtedly make, one questions whether Tim would really enjoy the lowered status and reduced influence he would have as just another backbench MP…

Thirty-four Labour PPCs  have written to Gordon begging him for a referendum on reforming the electoral system to be the final installment of his outgoing scorched earth policy.  The letter that has the backing of the left-wing front-group “Vote for Change” reads “we do not believe that Labour will benefit at the next general election unless voters see that we are prepared to actually deliver a chance of real change.” All very nice, but it doesn’t take long before you see their true reasons for wanting the vote:

“A referendum on polling day on a system that delivers real voter choice would see hundreds of Liberal Democrats switching to Labour, hundreds more stay-at-home Labour supporters coming out to vote for the government and every Tory opponent on the back foot trying to explain why the failed old system is worth keeping and why Cameron wouldn’t give the people a say.”

A quick look through these thirty-four wannabes shows that just one of them – former Portillo slayer and 2005 Enfield loser Stephen Twigg  - has any chance of winning their seat. With the average losing majority (at the prevailing polls levels) expected to be 28% no wonder they are so keen on widening the goalposts, just look at the predicted* majorities they are up against:

Would they be backing the vote if the odds were not overwhelming stacked against them?

Funny how desperate Gordon is to have a New Year summit on Afghanistan in London. Withdrawal from Afghanistan could be some kind of a legacy for him. More likely the real reason he wants the summit is so he can get a few photo-ops that feed into his “Gordon leads the world delusion” in time for the General Election.  Remember back in March how he milked the London G20 Summit for all it was worth, desperate for a little stardust to be sprinkled on him during strolls and photographs with Obama?

That fawning and excruciatingly embarrassing joint interview (above) in Washington last March?

Gordon wants a pretext to bring Obama to London so he can play the international statesman saving the world again in the run up to the election.

Bloomberg surmises that although June 3 is the last date the Prime Mentalist can call the election, the locals scheduled for May 6* is the date implied by a 34-page Labour document, “General Election Handbook Part 1 — A day-by- day planner for your general election campaign,” issued to candidates at the conference.

The handbook is an idiots guide for activists detailing tasks to perform every day.  For example on Thursday, March 18, it instructs them to “follow up budget coverage.”

At the beginning of April, candidates are told “increase the campaign activity to a maximum level” and switch to the “Short Campaign Handbook,” which details what to do once an election is called.

The Labour Party is stretched financially and the union paymasters know that Labour is set to lose, so they would rather throw money at one not two elections, therefore combining the two campaigns makes sense.  The sooner the better…

*Chief Crazy Horse of the Sioux famouly surrendered to the United States on May 6.  Somehow seems relevant.

UPDATE : It is also Tony Blair’s bithday, so it will be nice for him to see his heir take his old job.

All the pro-politics political junkies are getting worked up about the idea that vote counting and results might be delayed until the next day (Friday) after the election.  They like all the drama.  What a waste of money and time.  Lets save all the hassle, save all the cost, get the result accurate and in a timely fashion by having an electronic count.  Election night will be saved, and it will all be done on the night with the result will be known the minute the polls close.

It is the 21st Century, we don’t need rooms full of people miscounting the vote, lets go digital and get it over with by 10.01.  The night would be for celebration, commiseration and sleeping, rather than voter slip counting into the early hours…

Dale, Isaby, Harris and Pickles just like the drama.  The rest of us just want the result, the faster the better…

In what was one of the safest Tory seats in the country UKIP plan to mount a challenge. Speaking about Bercow, the controversial Labour-backed Speaker, Nigel Farage told the Telegraph

“He is not a Conservative and yet he is sitting in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. It means the people of Buckingham cannot vote for a Conservative even if they want to. This is a part of England where we did very well in the European elections and local elections. We are very well organised and strong and I intend to fight this very hard to become the MP.”

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	John Bercow	27,748	57.4	+3.7
	Labour	David Greene	9,619	19.9	−4.3
	Liberal Democrat	Luke Croydon	9,508	19.7	−0.3
	UKIP	David Williams	1,432	3.0	+0.9

This could be fun…

UPDATE : ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie says what a lot of Tories will be thinking “I’d be tempted to vote UKIP if I lived in Buckingham”.  Dizzy thinks he “… would happily campaign/vote for Farage over Bercow.”