Rich’s 2015 Election View

General Election Campaign Officially Starts Today

vote

Today is the day election spending rules kick in and the campaign for 2015 officially begins. Here are the key dates for your diary:

  • December 19: Long campaign begins. Candidate spending limited to £30,700, plus 9p per voter in county (rural) constituencies, and 6p per voter in borough (urban) constituencies.
  • January 5: House returns from Christmas recess.
  • February 12-23: February recess.
  • March 18: George Osborne delivers the final budget of the parliament. He only has a few working days to get it through before…
  • March 30: Parliament dissolves. Short campaign begins. Spending restrictions tightened to £8,700, plus 9p per voter in county constituencies and 6p per voter in borough constituencies.
  • May 7: Election day.

138 days to go…

LibDems Spent £1.5 Million on Winning One Euro Seat

The Electoral Commission today reveals how much each party spent on their European election campaigns. The big bucks splashed by the Tories and UKIP meant they paid six figures for each seat won. Labour got best value for money, spending just over a million quid for their 20 seats, or just over £50,000 per MEP.

The LibDems blew £1.5 million with just one MEP to show for it…

Labour Oppositions Never Gain Ground in Final Six Months

Fascinating analysis on ConHome showing how Labour’s poll ratings six months out from elections have historically compared with the final election result. Guido’s graph above illustrates how “Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance”. Lewis Baston concludes: “Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”. Something for Tory MPs to cling onto going into next year…

Lucy Powell’s Election Expertise

Lucy Powell’s first day in charge of Labour’s election campaign did not do much to quell colleagues’ fears she is not up to the job. At the prime time of 11pm last night Powell sent out her first mass email to Labour supporters, with the subject line “The deep end”. Waving?

In a section titled “How we’re going to win the election”, Powell raises concerns the Tories will “[use] their funding advantage to overwhelm voters with their message via every medium possible — TV, post, billboards, public transport”. Of course, as any vice-chairman of an election campaign would know, in this country outspending your opponent by splashing cash on TV adverts is explicitly prohibited by electoral law.  So was that a mistruth or mis-hire?

UKIP Well Short in South Yorkshire

Labour: 50.02%

UKIP: 31.66%

Tories: 12.52%

English Democrats: 5.8%

Massive electorate. Limited ground operation. Warnings for UKIP here ahead of next year.

2015 Election Leaders’ Debates: Details in Full

These are the proposals from the broadcasters:

  • One head-to-head debate between the two leaders who could become Prime Minister – Conservative and Labour. This debate will be co-produced by Sky News and Channel 4 and chaired by Jeremy Paxman. Kay Burley will introduce the programme and present the post-debate analysis. The whole programme will be carried live on Sky and Channel 4 and their digital platforms, as well as having a major presence across social media.
  • One debate between the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders. This debate will be produced by the BBC and presented by David Dimbleby. It will be broadcast on BBC One with extensive live coverage on other BBC TV and Radio networks and online.
  • One debate between the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP leaders. This debate will be produced and broadcast by ITV. The ITV debate, chaired by Julie Etchingham, will air on ITV’s main channel and online

They have written to the four leaders inviting them to take part…

UPDATE: Farage says yes but might want more: “if the political landscape continues to change we would expect and ask for inclusion in a second debate

UPDATE II: The LibDems say no: “We do not accept proposal that the Lib Dems, as party of government, should be prevented from defending our record in one of the TV debates.”

EXC: Farage Calls for Electoral Commission to Be Abolished

Speaking exclusively to Guido in the media scrum after his press conference, Nigel Farage has called for the Electoral Commission to be abolished for allowing the misleadingly named An Independence From Europe party onto the ballot papers. Farage accepted that the spoiler party cost UKIP an even greater win, the party is furious that Gawain Towler was denied a seat in the South West because of the vote being split by the other party’s “UK Independence Now” slogan. The UKIP leader tells Guido:

“The Electoral Commission was set up if you remember to stop things like the Literal Democrats from ever happening again. In their 13 years of existence, their only achievement that I can see is to have presided over a massive growth in postal voting fraud. They’ve hounded UKIP almost to the point of bankruptcy. We only survived 4-3 at the Supreme Court from going bankrupt. They now allow a party that put UK Independence Now on the ballot paper, that cost us a seat in the South West. Frankly they are not fit for purpose. I’d close the whole thing down and start again.”

Please credit quote to Guido Fawkes.

The Electoral Commission claimed the names of the two parties were sufficiently different. Which is laughable considering it impacted upon the final result…

State of the Parties

The results are in, with the exception of Scotland which does not announce until later today. This is the state of the parties this morning:

Here is the BBC’s earthquake warning map:

You can see the results and all the […]

+ READ MORE +

European Election Results

SCOTLAND

SNP: 389,503
Lab: 348,219
Con: 231,330
UKIP: 140,534
Green: 108,305
LD: 95,319

MEPs: Ian Hudghton (SNP)David Martin (Lab)Ian Duncan (Con)Alyn Smith (SNP)Catherine Stihler (Lab)David Coburn (UKIP).

LONDON

Labour: […]

+ READ MORE +

UKIP Top Poll in Newark

Two weeks til the by-election…[…]

+ READ MORE +

European Election Exit Polls

poll

The exit polls in from Europe so far show a strong anti-EU vote across the continent. The right-wing anti-EU People’s Party is top in Denmark, Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star party is second in Italy (according to test data), far […]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Liz Kendall is asked by Tom Newton Dunn if she would ever ban the Sun from one of her press conferences:

“If you stripped naked and ran in front of me, Tom, I might have second thoughts about it, but apart from that, no.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Labour Candidate: Repatriating Tunisia Victims is ‘Imperialist Militarisation’ Labour Candidate: Repatriating Tunisia Victims is ‘Imperialist Militarisation’
Tory MP’s House Husband on Public Payroll Tory MP’s House Husband on Public Payroll
Corbyn Blames Tunisia Terror on “Austerity” Corbyn Blames Tunisia Terror on “Austerity”
Norwich MP’s Brilliant Accidental Partridge Norwich MP’s Brilliant Accidental Partridge
FRIDAY PROCRASTINATION: BING PONG FRIDAY PROCRASTINATION: BING PONG
Uber Suspend Services in France Uber Suspend Services in France

Gerald Kaufman: English Votes For English Laws is “Racist” Gerald Kaufman: English Votes For English Laws is “Racist”
Environment Minister Totty Watch Environment Minister Totty Watch
MEGA INTERCONTINENTAL ROBOT WARS MEGA INTERCONTINENTAL ROBOT WARS
Dave Meets UKIP Dave Meets UKIP
Secret Fracking Report Doesn’t Reveal Much Secret Fracking Report Doesn’t Reveal Much
Environmental Advantages of Airport Expansion Environmental Advantages of Airport Expansion
PMQS SKETCH PMQS SKETCH
“Dodgy” Dave v “Jurassic” Skinner “Dodgy” Dave v “Jurassic” Skinner
Missed PMQs? Catch Up in Full Here Missed PMQs? Catch Up in Full Here
Do you have what it takes to join a GCHQ hacking SCHOOL? Do you have what it takes to join a GCHQ hacking SCHOOL?
IDS Expenses Row: Was Credit Card Suspended Or Not? IDS Expenses Row: Was Credit Card Suspended Or Not?
Questions Channel 4 News Don’t Want to Ask Questions Channel 4 News Don’t Want to Ask
Zac and Boris Warn Dave Zac and Boris Warn Dave