Friday, October 10, 2014

Labour Shocked By Working Class Swing to UKIP

H+M-SWING

Labour are spinning that their vote held up and even increased by 0.8% – in reality they lost 7,000 votes and UKIP gained nearly 10,000 (up 36%) making the seat an ultra-marginal for Labour. John Mann is voicing the fears of many Labour MPs about metropolitan Miliband’s wonkish Labour:

Even loyalists like LabourList’s Mark Ferguson are cutting through the spin:

The Tories had psychologically priced in defeat in Clacton, Labour are in shock

Your By-Election Results in Full

Clacton:

Douglas Carswell (UKIP) 21,113 (59.75%)
Giles Watling (Con) 8,709 (24.64%)
Tim Young (Lab) 3,957 (11.20%)
Chris Southall (Green) 688 (1.95%)
Andy Graham (LibDem) 483 (1.37%)

Heywood and Middleton:

Liz McInnes (Lab) 11,633 (40.9%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11,016 (38.7)
Iain Gartside (Con) 3,496 (12.3%)
Anthony Smith (LibDem) 1,457 (5.1%)

UKIP lost Heywood and Middleton by 617 votes, voting Tory let Labour in…

Thursday, October 9, 2014

By-Election Results

You read it here first;

  • Douglas Carswell becomes UKIP’s first elected MP, winning in Clacton.
  • Labour hold Heywood and Middleton.

Details to follow…

Guidogram Going Out Shortly

Guido’s email service is now a seven day operation: the Six at Six arrives in your inbox on the way home from work, Thursday brings you the Guidogram round-up of the week, on Saturday we give you the Best of Seen Elsewhere, and Guido on Sunday has all the gossip from our column in the Sun.

Thousands of Westminster wags subscribe, everyone from Downing Street insiders to Fleet Street never miss it. 

Join the conspiracy and become a subscriber, free, to keep in the loop. You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Carswell and Farage Solve Major Policy Disagreement

Last month Douglas Carswell revealed one issue he was at odds with with Nigel Farage:

“I have discovered one major policy difference with Nigel Farage. After a busy few hours meeting and greeting local people, he prefers to pop into a local café. I keep on trying to get him to go to McDonald’s for a McFlurry.”

Today in Clacton they settled their differences:

Whipping up a storm…

UKIP Call in the Cavalry

Meanwhile, in Clacton:

Planning on staying up pasture bedtime for the results tonight?

If things go to plan, Douglas Carswell won’t have waited furlong to get back to Westminster…

Pics via @raheemjkassam.

DATA SPECIAL: Karen Danczuk Twitter Selfie Analysis

Guido’s favourite Labour councillor Karen Danczuk was given a tough time during her appearance on Loose Women, coming in for some particularly unfair criticism about her allegedly provocative Twitter selfies. This blog has always been at the cutting edge of agenda setting data journalism, so Guido decided to investigate and put Karen’s defence to the test. The evidence presented below shows that Mrs D is right, despite what the Loose Women said more often than not her selfies are just good, clean fun:

In light of this indisputable new evidence perhaps Karen’s critics should start talking about some of her other assets…

WATCH: Disappearing BBC News Presenter

The BBC empty chairs its own presenter:

A technical hitch tackled with consummate professionalism by Joanna Gosling.

Today’s By-Elections: The Numbers

In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:

Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:

Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:

We should have the results in the early hours…

BBC Confirm the Word is ‘Chairman’

Rona Fairhead, the new boss at the BBC Trust, has sent out a cringe-worthy welcome email to all staff on her first day:

“Today is my first day as Chairman and I wanted to write to say “hello” and to say how excited I am to be joining this great organisation. I feel privileged to be here and can’t wait to get started.”

Naffness aside, full marks for the correct usage of the English language. There is no such word as ‘chairwoman’. It’s comforting to see such a respected and august national institution lead the way against politically correct butchery. A good sign…

 


Seen Elsewhere

5 Things We Learned From Guido’s Party | GQ
Revealed: Guido Fawkes Anniversary Dinner Guestlist | Peter Oborne
More Owen Jones Errors | Michael Ezra
Why Should Men Get Equal Maternity Leave? | Laura Keynes
Dentists Have Last Laugh Over Sneering Keynes | FT
Why’s Clegg Giving Men Paternity Leave? | Conservative Women
Cam Cannot Stem EU Immigration | David Keighley
9 Mansion Tax Questions for Ed Balls | TPA
Politicians are Lying to You About Immigration | Alex Wickham
Give Journalists Public Interest Defence in Law | Guardian
Cameron is Going to Have to Deal With UKIP | Dan Hodges


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Chris Bryant talks to the Times Diary about a famous gay actor:

“I don’t think I’ve had sex with him. He says we had sex in Clapham. I’m fairly certain I’ve never had sex south of the river”



Progressive Inclusion Champion says:

Great to hear Carswell call for inclusive policies and that UKIP must stand for first and second generation immigrants as much as the English.


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