Menzies Campbell got a rapturous welcome – hear it here.
Documents seized in David Mills’ office and sent to the Italian prosecutor in Milan directly contradict claims by the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi that he has never known the British lawyer. In particular, Mills’ notes contain details about a phone call from Berlusconi in November 1995: “When I spoke to Silvio Berlusconi on Thursday [23 November 1995], he insisted on the fact that the latest accusations are politically motivated.” In addition, computer files from Calkin Pattison, responsible for Mills’ finances, reveal that £500,000 from Italian cases could not be collected before the end of Berlusconi’s trial.
Will be drinking some of my winnings. Ms Jowell can wait.
Ming call centre campaign reached armchair activists…
Huhne was by far the best campaigner, it was aggressive and determined, Ming’s campaign was an establishment campaign, Hughes’ was a hopeless campaign.
Of more concern than who will lead the LibDems is, who will be humiliated, Mike or Guido? Mike has cashed in his bets, Guido is balls deep in Ming…
Analysts : City Tipster + An Anonymous Hedge Fund Trader. The City Tipster is an active political punter.
Disclaimer : YouGov 1 first preference data based on information leaked to Guido and denied by Kellner. Originally received from Huhne allied source subsequently vouched for by Ming allied source. Second preferences confirmed by YouGov. YouGov 2 data taken directly from YouGov.
Assumptions : Both the YouGov private polls had a leading question bias – first toward Ming, second toward Huhne BOTH against Hughes. We looked at bias against Hughes – factoring the polls having the same negative effect on Hughes that they did in turn for Chris Huhne and Sir Menzies Campbell. This factor was found to not be enough to change the final percentage when rounded.
We have produced average (mean) figures across the two polls. We have also produced a second calculation that attempts to factor in the bias against Hughes that the poll itself indicates.
The first preferences in the first YouGov poll are not exact (note they add up to 98%). However we have confirmed with a number of sources that they are “accurate” +/- 1%. For the purposes of accuracy, those first preferences now do add up to 100% having been adjusted on a pro-rata basis.
First Round Poll of YouGov Polls :
Final Result Factoring in Second Preferences:
Email Guido for full dataset spreadsheet with calculations.
Click play to see the first edition of The Fly from last night’s Built to Last pep-talk and Q&A at Vinopolis.
++ ANALYSIS SAYS SECOND PREFERENCES WILL GIVE MING VICTORY ++
++ DATA TO FOLLOW ++
Reform the House of Lords | Nigel Farage
Labour Members Don’t Believe Ed Can Be PM | Rafael Behr
How China Bought Britain | London Loves Business
Why Dave Shouldn’t Check His Twitter | Buzzfeed
Young People Getting More Libertarian | ConHome
How to Write a Dan Hodges Column | Left Foot Forward
Politicians Made This Mess | Douglas Carswell
Magna Carta – Walking in King John’s Footsteps | Anna Raccoon
How to Stop Reckless Bankers | Guido Fawkes
Tories Double Younger Support | Guardian
Public Prefers Boris to Dave | Times
Andrew Pierce on Ed Balls…
“Porky Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls sweet-talked guests at a fund-raising dinner by saying if he wasn’t a politician, he would be a chef. That’s not surprising, since he was accused of cooking the Treasury books when he was Gordon Brown’s boot boy.”
Bloody foreigners, coming over here taking all our twitter followers