Documents seized in David Mills’ office and sent to the Italian prosecutor in Milan directly contradict claims by the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi that he has never known the British lawyer. In particular, Mills’ notes contain details about a phone call from Berlusconi in November 1995: “When I spoke to Silvio Berlusconi on Thursday [23 November 1995], he insisted on the fact that the latest accusations are politically motivated.” In addition, computer files from Calkin Pattison, responsible for Mills’ finances, reveal that £500,000 from Italian cases could not be collected before the end of Berlusconi’s trial.

La Repubblica also says Italian prosecutors think that this suggests that their collection was conditional on a successful outcome and in particular Mills’ “amnesia” in court.

The sagely Mike Smithson runs the excellent politicalbetting.com site, which was the lead story on Newsnight last night. He has consistently backed Huhne, Guido has backed Huhne to lead the LibDems as well, but has in the end put his money on Ming.

Huhne was by far the best campaigner, it was aggressive and determined, Ming’s campaign was an establishment campaign, Hughes’ was a hopeless campaign.

Of more concern than who will lead the LibDems is, who will be humiliated, Mike or Guido? Mike has cashed in his bets, Guido is balls deep in Ming…

Dataset : YouGov 1 & YouGov 2

Analysts : City Tipster + An Anonymous Hedge Fund Trader. The City Tipster is an active political punter.

Disclaimer : YouGov 1 first preference data based on information leaked to Guido and denied by Kellner. Originally received from Huhne allied source subsequently vouched for by Ming allied source. Second preferences confirmed by YouGov. YouGov 2 data taken directly from YouGov.

Assumptions : Both the YouGov private polls had a leading question bias – first toward Ming, second toward Huhne BOTH against Hughes. We looked at bias against Hughes – factoring the polls having the same negative effect on Hughes that they did in turn for Chris Huhne and Sir Menzies Campbell. This factor was found to not be enough to change the final percentage when rounded.

Hughes is thus eliminated, 2nd preferences are re-allocated (less those who said they would not cast a second preference).

Sir Menzies Campbell : 53% Chris Huhne : 47%

CCHQ has had this secret project under wraps for weeks – codenamed “THE FLY” as in “The fly on the wall”, tonight sees the first in a series of video-on-demand documentary style presentations. With the advance of broadband Tory media strategists reckon Cameron can reach out direct to party members and further online to politically interested viewers, whilst at the same time “disintermediating the message”. Cutting out the tiresome need for Paxman or Humphrys to give an uninterrupted pitch. Guido understands that the video team will follow Cameron around the country and the weekly videos will make a feature of his straight-to-camera personalised pitch. “It’s what Reagan would have done if he was around today” claimed Guido’s source.

Click play to see the first edition of The Fly from last night’s Built to Last pep-talk and Q&A at Vinopolis.

Consigliere Mills is making it worse for Tessa. His latest explanation is that the dog ate his homework Tessa signed off on the home-loan to invest the money in another offshore hedge fund, which was closing to investors and he needed the bridging loan from Hambros in a hurry. This has more complications. Half the money invested is hers (that is why she co-signed the loan agreement) but she seems to have forgotten to declare her interest in this fund. Well these things do happen, it is easy to forget signing away the house to put the cash into a hedge fund. You know how it is, check there is milk in the fridge, pay the gas bill, sign away your home into a leveraged speculative investment. Just a normal domestic day at Casa Della Lavanderia.

Elsewhere the Italian magistrates are hinting that the Home Office made it difficult to extradite Mills – by tipping off Don Berlusconi about the request – who then blocked it from Rome. Unless Mills cuts a deal (as he is said to be attempting) he is going to be charged. Can Tessa survive that?