Some Brownites and Cameronites have mixed feelings about him going too soon. Some Brownites want him to stay and take the blame for anything they can stick him with until their shiny new Mr Clean takes over and the Iraqi withdrawal can be ordered by PM Brown, other leftwing anti-Blairites just want rid of him and the sooner the better.
Some Cameronites, and Guido suspects Dave himself, want a wounded, rotting administration to remain limping to the bitter end when Cameron will claim his inheritance. They would like nothing better than for the likes of Byers and Blunkett to return to office to sit next to Blair and Jowell. A team like that would just suit them down to the ground. Other Cameroonies look at the polls which consistently show Brown is far less popular than Cameron in a head-to-head fight. They are eager for the main event and expect that with three or more years in the PM’s office, Brown will be terminally damaged goods by the time of the election. Recess Monkey reckons Brown might however find an excuse for a snap election – a suspicion that Cameron himself outlined in a recent speech to Scottish Tories.
Guido will declare an interest, having wagered a good amount on Betfairthat Blair will go around the time of the Labour party conference. Betfairwere giving 10/1 that he’d go between July and September. That’s my top tip. (Beef or Salmon at Cheltenham is my other – but perhaps that one is best ignored).