The Economist’s editor Bill Emmott is bowing out with an anti-Blair goodbye cover story. Betfairare offering 6/1 on him going by the end of this month.

Some Brownites and Cameronites have mixed feelings about him going too soon. Some Brownites want him to stay and take the blame for anything they can stick him with until their shiny new Mr Clean takes over and the Iraqi withdrawal can be ordered by PM Brown, other leftwing anti-Blairites just want rid of him and the sooner the better.

Some Cameronites, and Guido suspects Dave himself, want a wounded, rotting administration to remain limping to the bitter end when Cameron will claim his inheritance. They would like nothing better than for the likes of Byers and Blunkett to return to office to sit next to Blair and Jowell. A team like that would just suit them down to the ground. Other Cameroonies look at the polls which consistently show Brown is far less popular than Cameron in a head-to-head fight. They are eager for the main event and expect that with three or more years in the PM’s office, Brown will be terminally damaged goods by the time of the election. Recess Monkey reckons Brown might however find an excuse for a snap election – a suspicion that Cameron himself outlined in a recent speech to Scottish Tories.

Guido will declare an interest, having wagered a good amount on Betfairthat Blair will go around the time of the Labour party conference. Betfairwere giving 10/1 that he’d go between July and September. That’s my top tip. (Beef or Salmon at Cheltenham is my other – but perhaps that one is best ignored).

Baby Ms Fawkes will be celebrating her first St Patrick’s today. We’ll be cheering on whichever Irish nag looks like winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

And of course on Saturday England play Ireland in the rugby, and Guido fancies Ireland’s chances.

Guido has convinced Mrs Fawkes that yesterday’s ill health was due to the mussels consumed at lunchtime and that a few restorative Guinnesses will be appropriate today.

Happy St Patrick’s Day.

With bookies making a hung parliament favourite, Cameron is being nicer to LibDems. The wooing of the Orange Bookers has spread even to the Institute of Economic Affairs, where the keepers of the Thatcherite flame are having a shindig to mark the 25th anniversary of 364 economists getting it wrong. David Laws from the LibDems will be there on the panel.

For those who can’t remember this is what 364 Keynesian economists wrote to The Times.

“We, who are all present or retired members of the economics staffs of British universities, are convinced that:
a) there is no basis in economic theory or supporting evidence for the Government’s belief that by deflating demand they will bring inflation permanently under control and thereby induce an automatic recovery in output and employment;
b) present politics will deepen the depression, erode the industrial base ofour economy and threaten its social and political stability;
c) there are alternative policies; and
d) the time has come to reject monetarist policies and consider urgently which alternative offers the best hope of sustained recovery.”

Guido won’t be there tonight because he still has the hangover from hell. Incidentally, has anyone seen my scooter?

The real treasurer of the Labour party is Lord Levy, Jack Dromey (a.k.a Mr Harman) has the title on his business card, but admits that he knows nothing about what is going on and that the real money is raised via No. 10.

Levy first came to Blair’s attention in the mid-90s, when he was introduced to the then leader of the opposition by an Israeli diplomat, the ex-music business accountant went on to raise £7m for Blair’s “blind” trust that ran his office. That trust was closed amid allegations about the lack of blindness of the trust and the rewards that went to suppposedly anonymous donors.

The level of coincidence between getting a 7-figure shakedown from Levy and a peerage by return post is approaching mathematical certainty. Levy is certainly adept at manipulating money, the Bentley driving millionaire managed famously to get his tax bill down to £5,000 one year (a fact he went to court to suppress being published by the Sunday Times – and lost). Jack Dromey has timed his intervention well, Blair is looking a bit wobbly today and an extra round of Downing Street sleaze stories will not help. A cynic might wonder if Jack Dromey is not positioning to ingratiate himself with the left-wing union where his future beckons.

Labour sleaze is of a different order to the Tory sleaze of old. The figures are of a different order and the money sloshing about went through No. 10, with the knowledge of the PM he admitted today. Neither Thatcher nor Major would ever have got involved in rattling the begging tin so directly.

N.B. Google now has a mere 115,000 references to “Tory Sleaze” versus 485,000 references to “Labour Sleaze“.

Eric Forth is having a good day so far, and it could get better. When Ming slowly stood up at PMQs (unsupported) to venture a question on pensions, the magnificent Forth heckled “Declare your interest!”, the whole house laughed and Ming was mortally punctured.

The expectation is that Eric will not vote with Blair and Cameron for the Education Bill tonight, which is what Blair was seeking, rather pathetically, to capitalise on. Dave retorted effectively that Blair should concentrate on whipping his own party and leave him to worry about whipping the Tory party.

Forth will do what he wants, but the hope is that he finds something other to do. You know, like give a few cyclists a kicking, send some children up chimneys or just basically any of his hobbies besides voting against Blair.

The latest “Fly” has not been officially released as a streaming video by CCHQ, but it was on CCHQ’s server and Guido has a copy. Rehman meets Cameron and Maude. “Ray” is obviously not completely on-message yet, he is still wearing a tie and speaks like a member of the Royal family. Ray, mate, sort out an Estuary accent and lose the neckwear. You look too Old School Tory posh…

Hat-tip : ConservativeHome.Com

Guido was in Starbucks in Victoria Street this afternoon distributing Contra brand contraband coffee to caffeine deprived refuseniks, when he bumped into Tim Montgomerie, just out of CCHQ, “Ha! I have a scoop for tomorrow morning”, before I could congratulate him Guido’s mobile rang, it was Recess Monkey “Ha! I have a scoop”. “Rehman Chishti is the Tory defector“ they both chorused. “Who?” asked Guido.

“Maude’s opposition Labour PPC” they chorused again. To be fair, the Monkey got the scoop from a Labourite who saw them filming “Rehman meets Cameron in parliament” and put 2 + 2 together and correctly got 4. Tip to CCHQ – don’t film a hush-hush video in the Palace of Westminster.

That red-arsed Monkey has been particularly unpleasant about this on his blog, down to publishing Rehman’s personal mobile number. Whatever they may say, the defection must hurt, his official Labour website (Rehman Chishti: Home Page) now has pictures of Blair all over it. Recess told John Bercow and Guido during our pubcast recording last night, “don’t worry we’ll trash his reputation by morning”.

Nasty New Labour.

Guido, not being well versed in Labour party lore was bemused until he explained to me how he too, in the national interest, relied on Tory votes. Labour forevermore treated him as a traitor.

Guido has never liked Ramsay and his temperance ways…

In the brave new world that is Cameron’s Conservative Campaign HQ (no longer called Central Office, too Stalinist, not dynamic enough), the boys and girls had to re-apply for their own job or wait to apply for a new one to get a CCHQ contract. They are all equal now.

Not however if you are a wonk in that febrile hothouse that is the Conservative Research Department, they apparently just get appointed with an old fashioned nod from the Chairman Maode. No-one knows there is a position and then suddenly there is an announcement. Little chance of them getting another Investors in People blue plastic triangle to hang on the CCHQ wall as mentioned in the glossy brochure from last year.

Also the position of Head of Candidates is up for grabs. This is a hotseat, charged with the implementation of the controversial A-list, the most objected to policy of the new regime. Tory gatherings are now torturous for white male pinstriped types paralysed with fear and half naked without their ties. If you fancy the job the closing date is 24 March, so quickly send your CV to jmaclaren@conservatives.com.

Jane values “diversity and welcome applications from all sections of the community.” You do still have to support the Conservatives though.

Guido didn’t get involved in the whole Mohammed cartoons thing because it wasn’t funny and, you know, Guido has an affinity with suicide-bombing, politico-religious revolutionaries. This however is funny (requires flash and speakers). Go you Eeee’d up Muslim muthas…